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Macroeconomic theory postulates that fiscal deficits cause inflation. Yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship. This paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory. Unlike previous studies, we model inflation as nonlinearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic, using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short- and long-run effects of fiscal deficits. Results spanning 107 countries over 1960-2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high-inflation and developing country groups, but not among low-inflation advanced economies.
Discussions of macroeconomic policy often focus on changes in the budget deficit. A low budget deficit is one of the criteria for admission to the EMU. But some combinations of fiscal measures having a given effect on the budget deficit can have damaging effects on the principal macroeconomic objectives such as inflation and full employment, whereas other combinations will not. This is illustrated by using results from simulations for various OECD countries.
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The paper explores the inflationary implications of exchange rate regime reforms in a small open economy model combining the public finance view of inflation with multiple exchange markets. To account for the experience of many developing countries, the analysis focuses on transitions to multiple official exchange markets. In those countries, multiple exchange rates were often announced as temporary. The paper shows that the dynamic response of inflation to the reform markedly differ whether the announcement is credible or not. The paper also compares the response of inflation under a fixed crawl of nominal official rates and under the presence of policy rules aimed at reducing the spread between the official and parallel exchange rates.
This paper describes methodological issues pertaining to measurement of fiscal impact. The fiscal deficit is, under any circumstances, a crude tool for assessing the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. This paper also analyzes various ways in which the conventional definition of the fiscal deficit is affected by high rates of inflation. It has shown that, as the rate of inflation rises, the picture emerging from the conventional measure may, under certain circumstances, become somewhat blurred since the conventional measure may magnify the size of the fiscal adjustment that a country need. In fact, the size of the debt service that compensates bondholders for the reduction in the real value of their assets arising from inflation should be made explicit so as to indicate that part of the deficit whose impact depends mainly on portfolio decisions regarding the public's demand for government bonds, and on the potential effects of these bonds on the monetary and liquidity conditions of the economy.
The paper develops a model of inflationary finance that defines the fiscal deficit as a function of the virtual deficit—a deficit that would be observed if inflation were zero. It studies the negative relationship between the inflation rate and real government expenditures—the Patinkin effect. The model outperforms others in explaining four-digit inflation rates that never explode into hyperinflation. It also explains how apparently expansionist fiscal policies end in real deficits that are small and compatible with the small amount of seigniorage that can be collected at high inflation rates. Finally, it applies the model to the case of Brazil.