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This Note documents the final executive-level briefing of a project called "Measuring the Operational Value of Intelligence, Electronic Warfare, and Target Acquisition (OPVIEW)". The purpose of the OPVIEW project was to develop and apply innovative analytic tools for quantifying the operational value of intelligence, electronic warfare/target acquisition (IEW/TA) assets and activities. It was expected that such tools would have applications to a broad range of analyses regarding military intelligence capabilities. The innovative feature of the OPVIEW project was that it attempted to relate IEW/TA results to the operational commander's decision making. The OPVIEW analytic tools accept as inputs both the commander's information requirements and the IEW/TA collection results. They also provide a way to track how collected information affects decisions about current plans and conduct of operations. The outputs of the models represent the effect or "value" of IEW/TA in this sense. The project developed three analytic tools: a methodology for relating commanders' requirements to collection results and two models that employ the methodology. The "static" model provides an aggregate assessment of the capability of specified systems and system packages to meet commanders' information needs in specified scenarios. The "dynamic" model is more detailed and broader in scope: it assesses the impact of intelligence collection on commanders' decision making over the course of an operation from initial planning to its conclusion. All three tools depend fundamentally on subjective-judgment data, but these data are systematically developed using experts in operations planning, intelligence collection and production, and analysis. The Note concludes with a discussion of the status of the three tools developed during the project and potential future directions for their use. (44 figures).
Policymakers have long needed an improved analytic basis for their investment decisions regarding military intelligence assets. This report presents a new methodology for measuring the operational value of military intelligence, electronic warfare, and target acquisition (IEW/TA) and also describes two prototype models for studying IEW/TA in an operational context. The methodology enables the operational value of intelligence assets and activities to be expressed in quantifiable terms useful to resource acquisition decisionmakers, military planners, and operational managers. One application of the methodology is to help build the intelligence portion of the Army five-year program. The two prototype models were designed as aids for performing policy and other analysis of key issues. One is a spreadsheet model that can be used to assess the operational value of a given IEW/TA architecture at a point in time under various conditions; the other is a dynamic simulation that can be used to study how the value of IEW/TA changes through the course of an operation.
This report will be of particular interest to those who are involved in policy analysis for the Army's five-year program; in developing and applying methodology and models to assess military value, particularly the value of intelligence; and in comparing the potential contributions of Intelligence and Electronic Warfare/Target Acquisition (IEW/TA) systems, employment doctrine, and technologies in various military operations scenarios. The purpose of this project was to develop a methodology and one or more prototypes models for studying IEW/TA in an operational context; more specifically, the methodology enables the operational value of intelligence assets and activities to be expressed in quantifiable terms useful to resource acquisition decisionmakers, military planners, and operational managers. The two prototype models were designed as aids for performing policy and other analysis of key issues. The term prototype refers to a model that has been developed to the point that its usefulness has been demonstrated. The models can be used to help look for gaps and redundancies in current and proposed capabilities, help justify resource allocations, and seek desired mixes and employment strategies of IEW/TA assets and their communications network architectures to support operations. They were also used as tools for developing the methodology.
Policymakers have long needed an improved analytic basis for their investment decisions regarding military intelligence assets. This report presents a new methodology for measuring the operational value of military intelligence, electronic warfare, and target acquisition (IEW/TA) and also describes two prototype models for studying IEW/TA in an operational context. The methodology enables the operational value of intelligence assets and activities to be expressed in quantifiable terms useful to resource acquisition decisionmakers, military planners, and operational managers. One application of the methodology is to help build the intelligence portion of the Army five-year program. The two prototype models were designed as aids for performing policy and other analysis of key issues. One is a spreadsheet model that can be used to assess the operational value of a given IEW/TA architecture at a point in time under various conditions; the other is a dynamic simulation that can be used to study how the value of IEW/TA changes through the course of an operation.
How can the success (or failure) of Army special operations missions be assessed? The authors develop a methodology for doing so and illustrate the process through a fictional scenario.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Future U.S. national security strategy is likely to be profoundly affected by the ongoing, rapid evolution of cyberspace--the global information infrastructure--and in particular by the growing dependence of the U.S. military and other national institutions and infrastructures on potentially vulnerable elements of the U.S. national information infrastructure. To examine these effects, the authors conducted a series of exercises employing a methodology known as the Day After ... in which participants are presented with an information warfare crisis scenario and asked to advise the president on possible responses. Participants included senior national security community members and representatives from security-related telecommunications and information-systems industries. The report synthesizes the exercise results and presents the instructions from the exercise materials in their entirety.
This new resource presents the principles and applications in the emerging discipline of Activity-Based Intelligence (ABI). This book will define, clarify, and demystify the tradecraft of ABI by providing concise definitions, clear examples, and thoughtful discussion. Concepts, methods, technologies, and applications of ABI have been developed by and for the intelligence community and in this book you will gain an understanding of ABI principles and be able to apply them to activity based intelligence analysis. The book is intended for intelligence professionals, researchers, intelligence studies, policy makers, government staffers, and industry representatives. This book will help practicing professionals understand ABI and how it can be applied to real-world problems.