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Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Financial Statement Analysis and Earnings Forecasting is the process of analyzing historical financial statement data for the purpose of developing forecasts of future earnings. This process is important because it is central to the valuation of companies and the securities they issue. After a short introduction, Section 2 delves into the question "Why earnings"? Focusing on dividend policy irrelevance, the author describes key analytical results that imply that expected earnings are the fundamental determinant of both equity and enterprise value. Section 3 examines the issues involved in selecting the earnings metric to forecast. Once an earnings metric has been chosen, the next question to ask is "How useful are historical accounting numbers for developing forecasts of that metric?" Sections 4 through 8 focus on this question. Section 4 discusses the general role of econometric modeling. Section 5 reviews time-series models. Section 6 examines the choices a researcher makes when using panel-data approaches and the author describes the advantages of these approaches. Section 7 reviews the role of accounting measurement in determining the usefulness of historical accounting numbers for developing forecasts of future earnings. Section 8 examines approaches for forecasting the higher moments of future earnings and section 9 provides a summary.
I synthesize and discuss academic research on financial statement analysis and earnings forecasting. I begin by discussing analytical and empirical evidence that shows that earnings, not dividends or free cash flows, are the payoffs that investors forecast when estimating value. This result is fundamental and it provides clear motivation for studying earnings forecasting and the role that historical accounting numbers play in the earnings-forecasting process. I then provide a detailed discussion of the research design choices that are made when developing and evaluating an earnings-forecasting approach. I describe the tradeoffs involved when making these choices and I review the extant empirical literature. An overarching theme of this discussion is that there are substantial research opportunities.
Praise for Financial Statement Analysis A Practitioner's Guide Third Edition "This is an illuminating and insightful tour of financial statements, how they can be used to inform, how they can be used to mislead, and how they can be used to analyze the financial health of a company." -Professor Jay O. Light Harvard Business School "Financial Statement Analysis should be required reading for anyone who puts a dime to work in the securities markets or recommends that others do the same." -Jack L. Rivkin Executive Vice President (retired) Citigroup Investments "Fridson and Alvarez provide a valuable practical guide for understanding, interpreting, and critically assessing financial reports put out by firms. Their discussion of profits-'quality of earnings'-is particularly insightful given the recent spate of reporting problems encountered by firms. I highly recommend their book to anyone interested in getting behind the numbers as a means of predicting future profits and stock prices." -Paul Brown Chair-Department of Accounting Leonard N. Stern School of Business, NYU "Let this book assist in financial awareness and transparency and higher standards of reporting, and accountability to all stakeholders." -Patricia A. Small Treasurer Emeritus, University of California Partner, KCM Investment Advisors "This book is a polished gem covering the analysis of financial statements. It is thorough, skeptical and extremely practical in its review." -Daniel J. Fuss Vice Chairman Loomis, Sayles & Company, LP
Accounting Standards (US and International) have been updated to reflect the latest pronouncements. * An increased international focus with more coverage of IASC and non-US GAAPs and more non-US examples.
The text and images in this book are in grayscale. A hardback color version is available. Search for ISBN 9781680922929. Principles of Accounting is designed to meet the scope and sequence requirements of a two-semester accounting course that covers the fundamentals of financial and managerial accounting. This book is specifically designed to appeal to both accounting and non-accounting majors, exposing students to the core concepts of accounting in familiar ways to build a strong foundation that can be applied across business fields. Each chapter opens with a relatable real-life scenario for today's college student. Thoughtfully designed examples are presented throughout each chapter, allowing students to build on emerging accounting knowledge. Concepts are further reinforced through applicable connections to more detailed business processes. Students are immersed in the "why" as well as the "how" aspects of accounting in order to reinforce concepts and promote comprehension over rote memorization.
EBOOK: Financial Statement Analysis
Up-to-date information on using financial statement analysis to successfully assess company performance, from the seasoned experts at the CFA Institute Designed to help investment professionals and students effectively evaluate financial statements in today's international and volatile markets, amid an uncertain global economic climate, International Financial Statement Analysis, Second Edition compiles unparalleled wisdom from the CFA in one comprehensive volume. Written by a distinguished team of authors and experienced contributors, the book provides complete coverage of the key financial field of statement analysis. Fully updated with new standards and methods for a post crisis world, this Second Edition covers the mechanics of the accounting process; the foundation for financial reporting; the differences and similarities in income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements around the world; examines the implications for securities valuation of any financial statement element or transaction, and shows how different financial statement analysis techniques can provide valuable clues into a company's operations and risk characteristics. Financial statement analysis allows for realistic valuations of investment, lending, or merger and acquisition opportunities Essential reading for financial analysts, investment analysts, portfolio managers, asset allocators, graduate students, and others interested in this important field of finance Includes key coverage of income tax accounting and reporting, the difficulty of measuring the value of employee compensation, and the impact of foreign exchange rates on the financial statements of multinational corporations Financial statement analysis gives investment professionals important insights into the true financial condition of a company, and International Financial Statement Analysis, Second Edition puts the full knowledge of the CFA at your fingertips.
Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress discusses the evolution of three main streams within the financial distress prediction literature: the set of dependent and explanatory variables used, the statistical methods of estimation, and the modeling of financial distress. Section 1 discusses concepts of financial distress. Section 2 discusses theories regarding the use of financial ratios as predictors of financial distress. Section 3 contains a brief review of the literature. Section 4 discusses the use of market price-based models of financial distress. Section 5 develops the statistical methods for empirical estimation of the probability of financial distress. Section 6 discusses the major empirical findings with respect to prediction of financial distress. Section 7 briefly summarizes some of the more relevant literature with respect to bond ratings. Section 8 presents some suggestions for future research and Section 9 presents concluding remarks.