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Updated look at financial modeling and Monte Carlo simulation with software by Oracle Crystal Ball This revised and updated edition of the bestselling book on financial modeling provides the tools and techniques needed to perform spreadsheet simulation. It answers the essential question of why risk analysis is vital to the decision-making process, for any problem posed in finance and investment. This reliable resource reviews the basics and covers how to define and refine probability distributions in financial modeling, and explores the concepts driving the simulation modeling process. It also discusses simulation controls and analysis of simulation results. The second edition of Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel contains instructions, theory, and practical example models to help apply risk analysis to such areas as derivative pricing, cost estimation, portfolio allocation and optimization, credit risk, and cash flow analysis. It includes the resources needed to develop essential skills in the areas of valuation, pricing, hedging, trading, risk management, project evaluation, credit risk, and portfolio management. Offers an updated edition of the bestselling book covering the newest version of Oracle Crystal Ball Contains valuable insights on Monte Carlo simulation—an essential skill applied by many corporate finance and investment professionals Written by John Charnes, the former finance department chair at the University of Kansas and senior vice president of global portfolio strategies at Bank of America, who is currently President and Chief Data Scientist at Syntelli Solutions, Inc. Risk Analytics and Predictive Intelligence Division (Syntelli RAPID) Engaging and informative, this book is a vital resource designed to help you become more adept at financial modeling and simulation.
Praise for Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball(r) and Excel(r) "Professor Charnes's book drives clarity into applied Monte Carlo analysis using examples and tools relevant to real-world finance. The book will prove useful for analysts of all levels and as a supplement to academic courses in multiple disciplines." -Mark Odermann, Senior Financial Analyst, Microsoft "Think you really know financial modeling? This is a must-have for power Excel users. Professor Charnes shows how to make more realistic models that result in fewer surprises. Every analyst needs this credibility booster." -James Franklin, CEO, Decisioneering, Inc. "This book packs a first-year MBA's worth of financial and business modeling education into a few dozen easy-to-understand examples. Crystal Ball software does the housekeeping, so readers can concentrate on the business decision. A careful reader who works the examples on a computer will master the best general-purpose technology available for working with uncertainty." -Aaron Brown, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley, author of The Poker Face of Wall Street "Using Crystal Ball and Excel, John Charnes takes you step by step, demonstrating a conceptual framework that turns static Excel data and financial models into true risk models. I am astonished by the clarity of the text and the hands-on, step-by-step examples using Crystal Ball and Excel; Professor Charnes is a masterful teacher, and this is an absolute gem of a book for the new generation of analyst." -Brian Watt, Chief Operating Officer, GECC, Inc. "Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel is a comprehensive, well-written guide to one of the most useful analysis tools available to professional risk managers and quantitative analysts. This is a must-have book for anyone using Crystal Ball, and anyone wanting an overview of basic risk management concepts." -Paul Dietz, Manager, Quantitative Analysis, Westar Energy "John Charnes presents an insightful exploration of techniques for analysis and understanding of risk and uncertainty in business cases. By application of real options theory and Monte Carlo simulation to planning, doors are opened to analysis of what used to be impossible, such as modeling the value today of future project choices." -Bruce Wallace, Nortel
Updated look at financial modeling and Monte Carlo simulation with software by Oracle Crystal Ball This revised and updated edition of the bestselling book on financial modeling provides the tools and techniques needed to perform spreadsheet simulation. It answers the essential question of why risk analysis is vital to the decision-making process, for any problem posed in finance and investment. This reliable resource reviews the basics and covers how to define and refine probability distributions in financial modeling, and explores the concepts driving the simulation modeling process. It also discusses simulation controls and analysis of simulation results. The second edition of Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel contains instructions, theory, and practical example models to help apply risk analysis to such areas as derivative pricing, cost estimation, portfolio allocation and optimization, credit risk, and cash flow analysis. It includes the resources needed to develop essential skills in the areas of valuation, pricing, hedging, trading, risk management, project evaluation, credit risk, and portfolio management. Offers an updated edition of the bestselling book covering the newest version of Oracle Crystal Ball Contains valuable insights on Monte Carlo simulation—an essential skill applied by many corporate finance and investment professionals Written by John Charnes, the former finance department chair at the University of Kansas and senior vice president of global portfolio strategies at Bank of America, who is currently President and Chief Data Scientist at Syntelli Solutions, Inc. Risk Analytics and Predictive Intelligence Division (Syntelli RAPID) Engaging and informative, this book is a vital resource designed to help you become more adept at financial modeling and simulation.
Make trades on vertical options spreads with the precision of a laser beam Vertical Options Spreads is a combination of a bona-fide academic research-based study and a complete method to trade credit and debit spreads, along with other complex option combination trades such as iron condors and butterflies. Here, the author has accumulated five years of daily data on the ETF, SPY and provided historical evidence of actual win rates at specific multiples of entry points, both in time and price level. For example, traders will be able to use the weekly options, pick a level of risk and return desired, learn how to place the trade, and then discover the actual percent return that the trade would have yielded. This must-have resource includes the basics of option trading and contains references to many excellent works by other authors that explore more about the intricacies of option mechanics and trading. It is far more than an analysis of one specific asset, SPY, featuring a study of probability theory and how it has applied to trading over the past five years, including the highly volatile 2007 to 2009 time frame and the more "normal" 2010 to 2012 time period. The book offer a thorough understanding of how price movement, actual volatility, and implied volatility all provide a complex but workable web in which the informed trader can generate excellent returns. However, the trader must have the discipline to act within the confines of probability and the "law" of large numbers refusing to place trades based on gut feelings or hunches. Offers high-probability based trading that uses the new weekly options Contains handy interactive worksheets that allow traders to select their own risk/return with precision Includes a website with daily and weekly information on the estimate of the actual standard deviation points on the price spectrum Vertical Options Spreads offers traders a research-based guide for trading Standard & Poors 500 ETF, SPY using historic and estimated probabilities and returns that will give them an edge in the marketplace.
The comprehensive, broadly-applicable, real-world guide to financial modelling Principles of Financial Modelling – Model Design and Best Practices Using Excel and VBAcovers the full spectrum of financial modelling tools and techniques in order to provide practical skills that are grounded in real-world applications. Based on rigorously-tested materials created for consulting projects and for training courses, this book demonstrates how to plan, design and build financial models that are flexible, robust, transparent, and highly applicable to a wide range of planning, forecasting and decision-support contexts. This book integrates theory and practice to provide a high-value resource for anyone wanting to gain a practical understanding of this complex and nuanced topic. Highlights of its content include extensive coverage of: Model design and best practices, including the optimisation of data structures and layout, maximising transparency, balancing complexity with flexibility, dealing with circularity, model audit and error-checking Sensitivity and scenario analysis, simulation, and optimisation Data manipulation and analysis The use and choice of Excel functions and functionality, including advanced functions and those from all categories, as well as of VBA and its key areas of application within financial modelling The companion website provides approximately 235 Excel files (screen-clips of most of which are shown in the text), which demonstrate key principles in modelling, as well as providing many examples of the use of Excel functions and VBA macros. These facilitate learning and have a strong emphasis on practical solutions and direct real-world application. For practical instruction, robust technique and clear presentation, Principles of Financial Modelling is the premier guide to real-world financial modelling from the ground up. It provides clear instruction applicable across sectors, settings and countries, and is presented in a well-structured and highly-developed format that is accessible to people with different backgrounds.
A detailed look at developing real-world financial models using C++ This book, designed for self-study, reference, and classroom use, outlines a comprehensive approach to creating both simple and advanced financial models using C++. Author and modeling expert Chandan Sengupta covers programming, the C++ language, and financial modeling from the ground up-assuming no prior knowledge in these areas-and shows through numerous examples how to combine these skills with financial theory and mathematics to develop practical financial models. Since C++ is the computer language used most often to develop large-scale financial models and systems, readers will find this work-which includes a CD-ROM containing the models and codes from the book-an essential asset in their current modeling endeavors. Chandan Sengupta (White Plains, NY) teaches finance in the MBA program at the Fordham University Graduate School of Business. He is also the author of Financial Modeling Using Excel and VBA (0-471-26768-6).
Please contact the authors at [email protected] for details of how to access the trial version of Crystal Ball, as well as the Excel and other files which are *not* part of the e-book version download. "This is a book no deal team should be without. It is a must for those involved in upstream oil and gas transactions, planning, budgeting, investment appraisal and portfolio management. Its step–by–step approach cuts through complexity, making it comprehensive and understandable by a wide range of users with a wide range of abilities. It can be used as a textbook, an introductory primer or as a handbook that you can dip in and out of or read cover to cover." —Michael Lynch-Bell, Senior Advisor, Oil & Gas, Ernst & Young LLP; ex-officio Chairman, UN Expert Group on Resource Classification In the upstream petroleum industry, it is the value of post–tax cashflows which matters most to companies, governments, investors, lenders, analysts, and advisors. Calculating these cashflows and understanding their “behavior,” however, is challenging, as the industry’s specialized fiscal systems can be complex, jargon–laden, and sometimes seem to be a “world of their own”. Upstream Petroleum Fiscal and Valuation Modeling in Excel: A Worked Examples Approach demystifies fiscal analysis which, unlike disciplines such as Earth sciences and engineering, can be learned from a book. Written in plain English for laymen and for experienced practitioners alike, it is a reader–friendly, clear, practical, step–by–step hands–on guide for both reference and self–paced study. The book does not catalogue the 100+ different petroleum fiscal regimes in use at the time of writing. Rather, drawing on the authors’ combined 48 years’ experience, it takes a more timeless, generic treatment, by covering the most common variants of royalties, taxation, production sharing arrangements, bonuses and abandonment funding , through a dual approach: first, showing how to model them in Excel , and then providing interactive exercises to prompt (and answer) questions that analyze impacts on cashflows. In addition to the main text, the book consists of over 120 Excel files (ranging from modular examples to full models) in Excel 2007 and 2003 formats; over 400 pages of supplementary PDF files; VBA features to enhance model functionality; and an introduction to risk modeling with exercises for the included trial version of Oracle’s Crystal Ball software. It offers both a wealth of content and models equal to or surpassing what is available from fiscal modeling courses costing several times more; and greater insights into underlying calculations than commercially available “black box” fiscal software. New US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules planned for 2013 will force petroleum companies to disclose more fiscal information on an individual country basis. This will make it more important than ever for analysts to understand how to model oil and gas terms and the potential impacts of the disclosed government payments on future oil and gas company profitability. Due to the heavy use of graphics and cross references used in this particular text, some readers might find that the printed book offers a more optimal reading experience than certain e-formats particularly with the Kindle eMobi format.
An updated look at the theory and practice of financial analysis and modeling Financial Analysis and Modeling Using Excel and VBA, Second Edition presents a comprehensive approach to analyzing financial problems and developing simple to sophisticated financial models in all major areas of finance using Excel 2007 and VBA (as well as earlier versions of both). This expanded and fully updated guide reviews all the necessary financial theory and concepts, and walks you through a wide range of real-world financial problems and models that you can learn from, use for practice, and easily adapt for work and classroom use. A companion website includes several useful modeling tools and fully working versions of all the models discussed in the book. Teaches financial analysis and modeling and illustrates advanced features of Excel and VBA, using a learn-by-doing approach Contains detailed coverage of the powerful features of Excel 2007 essential for financial analysis and modeling, such as the Ribbon interface, PivotTables, data analysis, and statistical analysis Other titles by Sengupta: Financial Modeling Using C++ and The Only Proven Road to Investment Success Designed for self-study, classroom use, and reference This comprehensive guide is an essential read for anyone who has to perform financial analysis or understand and implement financial models.
A practical guide to building fully operational financial cash flow models for structured finance transactions Structured finance and securitization deals are becoming more commonplace on Wall Street. Up until now, however, market participants have had to create their own models to analyze these deals, and new entrants have had to learn as they go. Modeling Structured Finance Cash Flows with Microsoft Excel provides readers with the information they need to build a cash flow model for structured finance and securitization deals. Financial professional Keith Allman explains individual functions and formulas, while also explaining the theory behind the spreadsheets. Each chapter begins with a discussion of theory, followed by a section called "Model Builder," in which Allman translates the theory into functions and formulas. In addition, the companion website features all of the modeling exercises, as well as a final version of the model that is created in the text. Note: Companion website and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.
Addresses significant developments in the valuation of early stage enterprises at fair value with emphasis on practical applications—features a broad selection of case studies of early stage valuation Early Stage Valuation: A Fair Value Perspective provides a comprehensive review of the current methodologies used to value Early Stage Enterprises (ESEs) at fair value for financial reporting, investment, and mergers and acquisitions. Author Antonella Puca, Senior Director with Alvarez & Marsal Valuation Services in New York, provides accurate, up-to-date information on recent guidelines and new approaches for valuation assessments. This authoritative guide examines how to apply market analysis, discounted cash flows models, statistical techniques such as option pricing models (OPM) and Monte Carlo simulation, the venture capital method and non-GAAP metrics to ESE valuation. The text considers the most recent AICPA, Appraisal Foundation and IPEV guidance, and examines developments in both academic research and venture capital investor practice. Numerous real-world case studies illustrate early stage valuation suitable for structuring sound, internally consistent business transactions. Covering current trends and the latest regulatory guidance in the area, this book: Provides step-by-step guidance on practical valuation applications Reflects current standards for ESE valuation, including the AICPA Guide to the Valuation of Portfolio Company Investments, the IPEV guidelines and guidance from the Appraisal Foundation Covers new approaches to the valuation of ESEs with option pricing models, Monte Carlo Simulation, calibration and non-GAAP metrics Offers an overview of start-up valuation Discusses how intangible assets are impacting the valuation of ESEs The book also includes contributions from Neil Beaton, Andreas Dal Santo, Alexander Davie, John Jackman and Mark Zyla. Early Stage Valuation: A Fair Value Perspective is an essential resource for valuation specialists, private equity and venture capital fund managers, analysts, attorneys, investment bankers, regulators and auditors, and investors with interest in the private equity and venture capital industry.