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Mathematical modelling is ubiquitous. Almost every book in exact science touches on mathematical models of a certain class of phenomena, on more or less speci?c approaches to construction and investigation of models, on their applications, etc. As many textbooks with similar titles, Part I of our book is devoted to general qu- tions of modelling. Part II re?ects our professional interests as physicists who spent much time to investigations in the ?eld of non-linear dynamics and mathematical modelling from discrete sequences of experimental measurements (time series). The latter direction of research is known for a long time as “system identi?cation” in the framework of mathematical statistics and automatic control theory. It has its roots in the problem of approximating experimental data points on a plane with a smooth curve. Currently, researchers aim at the description of complex behaviour (irregular, chaotic, non-stationary and noise-corrupted signals which are typical of real-world objects and phenomena) with relatively simple non-linear differential or difference model equations rather than with cumbersome explicit functions of time. In the second half of the twentieth century, it has become clear that such equations of a s- ?ciently low order can exhibit non-trivial solutions that promise suf?ciently simple modelling of complex processes; according to the concepts of non-linear dynamics, chaotic regimes can be demonstrated already by a third-order non-linear ordinary differential equation, while complex behaviour in a linear model can be induced either by random in?uence (noise) or by a very high order of equations.
Build efficient forecasting models using traditional time series models and machine learning algorithms. Key FeaturesPerform time series analysis and forecasting using R packages such as Forecast and h2oDevelop models and find patterns to create visualizations using the TSstudio and plotly packagesMaster statistics and implement time-series methods using examples mentionedBook Description Time series analysis is the art of extracting meaningful insights from, and revealing patterns in, time series data using statistical and data visualization approaches. These insights and patterns can then be utilized to explore past events and forecast future values in the series. This book explores the basics of time series analysis with R and lays the foundations you need to build forecasting models. You will learn how to preprocess raw time series data and clean and manipulate data with packages such as stats, lubridate, xts, and zoo. You will analyze data and extract meaningful information from it using both descriptive statistics and rich data visualization tools in R such as the TSstudio, plotly, and ggplot2 packages. The later section of the book delves into traditional forecasting models such as time series linear regression, exponential smoothing (Holt, Holt-Winter, and more) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with the stats and forecast packages. You'll also cover advanced time series regression models with machine learning algorithms such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine using the h2o package. By the end of this book, you will have the skills needed to explore your data, identify patterns, and build a forecasting model using various traditional and machine learning methods. What you will learnVisualize time series data and derive better insightsExplore auto-correlation and master statistical techniquesUse time series analysis tools from the stats, TSstudio, and forecast packagesExplore and identify seasonal and correlation patternsWork with different time series formats in RExplore time series models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and moreEvaluate high-performance forecasting solutionsWho this book is for Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R is ideal for data analysts, data scientists, and all R developers who are looking to perform time series analysis to predict outcomes effectively. A basic knowledge of statistics is required; some knowledge in R is expected, but not mandatory.
Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Third Edition provides an applied approach to time-series forecasting. Forecasting is an essential component of predictive analytics. The book introduces popular forecasting methods and approaches used in a variety of business applications. The book offers clear explanations, practical examples, and end-of-chapter exercises and cases. Readers will learn to use forecasting methods using the free open-source R software to develop effective forecasting solutions that extract business value from time series data. This edition features the R fable package, full color, enhanced organization, and new material. It includes: Popular forecasting methods including smoothing algorithms, regression models, ARIMA, neural networks, deep learning, and ensembles - A practical approach to evaluating the performance of forecasting solutions - A business-analytics exposition focused on linking time-series forecasting to business goals - Guided cases for integrating the acquired knowledge using real data - End-of-chapter problems to facilitate active learning - Data, R code, and instructor materials on companion website - Affordable and globally-available textbook, available in hardcover, paperback, and Kindle formats Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Third Edition is the perfect textbook for upper-undergraduate, graduate and MBA-level courses as well as professional programs in data science and business analytics. The book is also designed for practitioners in the fields of operations research, supply chain management, marketing, economics, information systems, finance, and management.
Step by Step guide filled with real world practical examples. About This Book Get your first experience with data analysis with one of the most powerful types of analysis—time-series. Find patterns in your data and predict the future pattern based on historical data. Learn the statistics, theory, and implementation of Time-series methods using this example-rich guide Who This Book Is For This book is for anyone who wants to analyze data over time and/or frequency. A statistical background is necessary to quickly learn the analysis methods. What You Will Learn Understand the basic concepts of Time Series Analysis and appreciate its importance for the success of a data science project Develop an understanding of loading, exploring, and visualizing time-series data Explore auto-correlation and gain knowledge of statistical techniques to deal with non-stationarity time series Take advantage of exponential smoothing to tackle noise in time series data Learn how to use auto-regressive models to make predictions using time-series data Build predictive models on time series using techniques based on auto-regressive moving averages Discover recent advancements in deep learning to build accurate forecasting models for time series Gain familiarity with the basics of Python as a powerful yet simple to write programming language In Detail Time Series Analysis allows us to analyze data which is generated over a period of time and has sequential interdependencies between the observations. This book describes special mathematical tricks and techniques which are geared towards exploring the internal structures of time series data and generating powerful descriptive and predictive insights. Also, the book is full of real-life examples of time series and their analyses using cutting-edge solutions developed in Python. The book starts with descriptive analysis to create insightful visualizations of internal structures such as trend, seasonality and autocorrelation. Next, the statistical methods of dealing with autocorrelation and non-stationary time series are described. This is followed by exponential smoothing to produce meaningful insights from noisy time series data. At this point, we shift focus towards predictive analysis and introduce autoregressive models such as ARMA and ARIMA for time series forecasting. Later, powerful deep learning methods are presented, to develop accurate forecasting models for complex time series, and under the availability of little domain knowledge. All the topics are illustrated with real-life problem scenarios and their solutions by best-practice implementations in Python. The book concludes with the Appendix, with a brief discussion of programming and solving data science problems using Python. Style and approach This book takes the readers from the basic to advance level of Time series analysis in a very practical and real world use cases.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th Portuguese Conference on Artificial Intelligence, EPTA 2001, held in Porto, Portugal, in December 2001. The 21 revised long papers and 18 revised short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from a total of 88 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on extraction of knowledge from databases, AI techniques for financial time series analysis, multi-agent systems, AI logics and logic programming, constraint satisfaction, and AI planning.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th IFIP TC 5, TC 12, WG 8.4, WG 8.9, WG 12.9 International Cross-Domain Conference, CD-MAKE 2020, held in Dublin, Ireland, in August 2020. The 30 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 140 submissions. The cross-domain integration and appraisal of different fields provides an atmosphere to foster different perspectives and opinions; it will offer a platform for novel ideas and a fresh look on the methodologies to put these ideas into business for the benefit of humanity. Due to the Corona pandemic CD-MAKE 2020 was held as a virtual event.
Data mining techniques are commonly used to extract meaningful information from the web, such as data from web documents, website usage logs, and hyperlinks. Building on this, modern organizations are focusing on running and improving their business methods and returns by using opinion mining. Extracting Knowledge From Opinion Mining is an essential resource that presents detailed information on web mining, business intelligence through opinion mining, and how to effectively use knowledge retrieved through mining operations. While highlighting relevant topics, including the differences between ontology-based opinion mining and feature-based opinion mining, this book is an ideal reference source for information technology professionals within research or business settings, graduate and post-graduate students, as well as scholars.
The ability to analyze and understand massive data sets lags far behind the ability to gather and store the data. To meet this challenge, knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD) is growing rapidly as an emerging field. However, no matter how powerful computers are now or will be in the future, KDD researchers and practitioners must consider how to manage ever-growing data which is, ironically, due to the extensive use of computers and ease of data collection with computers. Many different approaches have been used to address the data explosion issue, such as algorithm scale-up and data reduction. Instance, example, or tuple selection pertains to methods or algorithms that select or search for a representative portion of data that can fulfill a KDD task as if the whole data is used. Instance selection is directly related to data reduction and becomes increasingly important in many KDD applications due to the need for processing efficiency and/or storage efficiency. One of the major means of instance selection is sampling whereby a sample is selected for testing and analysis, and randomness is a key element in the process. Instance selection also covers methods that require search. Examples can be found in density estimation (finding the representative instances - data points - for a cluster); boundary hunting (finding the critical instances to form boundaries to differentiate data points of different classes); and data squashing (producing weighted new data with equivalent sufficient statistics). Other important issues related to instance selection extend to unwanted precision, focusing, concept drifts, noise/outlier removal, data smoothing, etc. Instance Selection and Construction for Data Mining brings researchers and practitioners together to report new developments and applications, to share hard-learned experiences in order to avoid similar pitfalls, and to shed light on the future development of instance selection. This volume serves as a comprehensive reference for graduate students, practitioners and researchers in KDD.
Connectionist Models contains the proceedings of the 1990 Connectionist Models Summer School held at the University of California at San Diego. The summer school provided a forum for students and faculty to assess the state of the art with regards to connectionist modeling. Topics covered range from theoretical analysis of networks to empirical investigations of learning algorithms; speech and image processing; cognitive psychology; computational neuroscience; and VLSI design. Comprised of 40 chapters, this book begins with an introduction to mean field, Boltzmann, and Hopfield networks, focusing on deterministic Boltzmann learning in networks with asymmetric connectivity; contrastive Hebbian learning in the continuous Hopfield model; and energy minimization and the satisfiability of propositional logic. Mean field networks that learn to discriminate temporally distorted strings are described. The next sections are devoted to reinforcement learning and genetic learning, along with temporal processing and modularity. Cognitive modeling and symbol processing as well as VLSI implementation are also discussed. This monograph will be of interest to both students and academicians concerned with connectionist modeling.
Computational Intelligence is a broad and active research area that is growing rapidly due to the many successful applications of these new techniques in very diverse problems. Many industries have benefited from adopting this technology. The increased number of patents and diverse range of products developed using computational intelligence methods is evidence of this fact. The goal of this book is to provide highlights of the current research in computational intelligence area. The book consists of research papers in the fields of neural networks, fuzzy logic, evolutionary computing, hybrid evolutionary computing-fuzzy logic systems, hybrid neural networks-evolutionary computing and fuzzy logic systems, image processing and vision, advances in robotics, control and manufacturing, and rough sets.