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This collection of papers by some of the world's leading development economists is remarkable for its wide scope. It covers such varied topics as stagflation in the third world; the extension of free trade to include international investment; the early 1980s in Latin America; the economic growth of Africa and communal land tenure systems and their role in rural development. As well as representing important contributions in themselves, the papers acquire unity from a similarity in approach - always giving priority to reality if it comes into conflict with theoretical bias.
Export structure is less diversified in low-income countries (LICs) and especially small states that face resource constraints and small economic size. This paper explores the potential linkages between export structure and economic growth and its volatility in LICs and small states, using a range of indices of export concentration differing in the coverage of industries. The empirical analysis finds that export diversification may promote economic growth and reduce economic volatility in these countries. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that the economic benefits of export diversification differ by country size and income level—there are bigger benefits for relatively larger and poorer countries within the group of LICs and small states.
Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their level of savings. The resulting asset accumulations would then act as the country’s insurance against the greater riskiness in its income stream. The paper tests this implication for a large sample of developing countries. In general, the results suggest that developing countries have indeed responded to increases in export instability by building up precautionary savings balances.
Nations and Households in Economic Growth: Essays in Honor of Moses Abramovitz is a collection of papers that reflect the broad sweep of Moses Abramovitz's interests within the disciplines of economics and economic history. This work is organized into two parts encompassing 14 chapters. The first part discusses the individual and social welfare significance of quantitative indices of economic growth. This part also deals with the mechanisms of economic-demographic interdependence and their bearing particularly upon "long swings in the rate of growth. The second part highlights the changing role of international relations in processes generating national economic development and domestic economic instability. This book will be of value to economists, historians, and researchers.
When this work was first published in 1966, there was much interest in various types of commodity agreements and compensatory financing as methods of reducing the effects of export fluctuations on the economies of developing countries. The book concluded that short term fluctuations in export earnings, though perhaps important for some countries, did not appear to be the general problem that had been assumed. If correct, it would suggest that any measures should be carefully designed to fit the situations of countries that were affected and be subjected to cost-benefit analysis. This led to many published and unpublished studies on the issues: some supported, others contradicted the book’s conclusions. The data available now are vastly greater and probably more accurate than pre-1966. However, the work and the issues it raised remain important because most schemes proposed to reduce export instability would be costly and likely to divert resources from uses more obviously aimed at raising economic development in most developing countries.
Since the 1960s the per capita incomes of the resource-poor countries have grown significantly faster than those of the resource-abundant countries. In fact, in recent years economic growth has been inversely proportional to the share of natural resource rents in GDP, so that the small mineral-driven economies have performed least well and the oil-driven economies worst of all. Yet the mineral-driven resource-rich economies have high growth potential because the mineral exportsboost their capacity to invest and to import."Resource Abundance and Economic Development" explains the disappointing performance of resource-abundant countries by extending the growth accounting framework to include natural and social capital. The resulting synthesis identifies two contrasting development trajectories: the competitive industrialization of the resource-poor countries and the staple trap of many resource-abundant countries. The resource-poor countries are less prone to policy failure than the resource-abundant countriesbecause social pressures force the political state to align its interests with the majority poor and follow relatively prudent policies. Resource-abundant countries are more likely to engender political states in which vested interests vie to capture resource surpluses (rents) at the expense of policycoherence. A longer dependence on primary product exports also delays industrialization, heightens income inequality, and retards skill accumulation. Fears of 'Dutch disease' encourage efforts to force industrialization through trade policy to protect infant industry. The resulting slow-maturing manufacturing sector demands transfers from the primary sector that outstrip the natural resource rents and sap the competitiveness of the economy.The chapters in this collection draw upon historical analysis and models to show that a growth collapse is not the inevitable outcome of resource abundance and that policy counts. Malaysia, a rare example of successful resource-abundant development, is contrasted with Ghana, Bolivia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Argentina, which all experienced a growth collapse. The book also explores policies for reviving collapsed economies with reference to Costa Rica, South Africa, Russia and Central Asia. Itdemonstrates the importance of initial conditions to successful economic reform.
Weighing up the costs and benefits of economic interdependence in a finance-driven world, this book argues that globalization, understood and promoted as absolute freedom for all forms of capital, has been oversold to the Global South, and that the South should be as selective about globalization as the North. 'Liberalization, Financial Instability and Economic Development' challenges the orthodoxy on the link between financial deepening and economic growth, as well as that between the efficiency of financial markets and the benefits of liberalization. Ultimately, the author urges developing countries to control capital flows and asset bubbles, preventing financial fragility and crises, and recommends regional policy options for managing capital flows and exchange rates.
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