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1.1 Some characteristics of the floating exchange rate system The flexible exchange rate system has functioned far less satisfactorily than many anticipated in 1973, when the major industrialized countries decided to let their currencies float. The dominant currencies' exchange rates have fluctuated more 1 than expected. These fluctuations concern both short-term movement- intraday fluctuations and movements during a week or a month - and long term changes that last for more than a year. Daily percentage changes of one percent are not unusual for the recent float (see MacDonald, 1988, p.8). However, the release of new information can give rise to much larger changes. For example in August 1987 "the dollar moved down 6 percent in two days based on the July trade figures" (Glynn, 1988, p. 36). For the period 1973-1985 MacDonald (1988, p.10) presents minimum and maximum monthly percentage exchange rate changes. These figures clearly illustrate the magnitude of the volatility and also show that the volatility has not diminished as the experience 2 with floating has increased. In addition to this volatility, exchange rates are also characterized by misalignment: "persistent departure of the exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium" (Williamson, 1983, p.l3). Although the measure of misalignment depends upon the exact definition of the exchange rate's long-run equilibrium, there is a widespread feeling that during the greater part of the 1970s the dollar was undervalued, whereas it was overvalued during the first half of the 1980s.
What guidance does academic research really provide to economic policy development? The critical and analytical surveys in this volume investigate links between policies and outcomes by surveying work from broad macroeconomic policies to interventions in microfinance. Asserting that there are no universal correspondences between policies and outcomes, contributors demonstrate instead that only an intense familiarity with the development context and the universe of applicable economic models can generate successful policies. Getting cause-and-effect right is essential for policy design and implementation. With the goal of drawing researchers and policy makers closer, this volume highlights our increasing understanding of ways to combine economic theorizing with careful, thoughtful empirical work. - Presents an accurate, self-contained survey of the current state of the field - Summarizes the most recent discussions, and elucidates new developments - Although original material is also included, the main aim is the provision of comprehensive and accessible surveys
The politics surrounding exchange rate policies in the global economy The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices. Exchange rates are set, either directly or indirectly, by government policy. Exchange rates are also central to the global economy, for they profoundly influence all international economic activity. Despite the critical role of exchange rate policy, there are few definitive explanations of why governments choose the currency policies they do. Filled with in-depth cases and examples, Currency Politics presents a comprehensive analysis of the politics surrounding exchange rates. Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry's characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. With an ambitious mix of narrative and statistical investigation, Currency Politics clarifies the political and economic determinants of exchange rate policies.
Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.
This book collects together the basic documents of an approach to the theory and policy of the balance of payments developed in the 1970s. The approach marked a return to the historical traditions of international monetary theory after some thirty years of departure from them – a departure occasioned by the international collapse of the 1930s, the Keynesian Revolution and a long period of war and post-war reconstruction in which the international monetary system was fragmented by exchange controls, currency inconvertibility and controls over international trade and capital movements.
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Principles of International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics: Theories, Applications, and Policies presents a macroeconomic framework for understanding and analyzing the global economy from the perspectives of emerging economies and developing countries. Unlike most macroeconomic textbooks, which typically emphasize issues about developed countries while downplaying issues related to developing countries, this book emphasizes problems in emerging economies, including those in Latin American countries. It also explains recent developments in international finance that are essential to a thorough understanding of the effects and implications of the recent financial crisis. - Concentrates on developing country perspectives on International Finance and the Economy, including those in Latin American countries - Provides case studies and publicly available data allowing readers to explore theories and their applications - Explains recent developments in international finance that are essential to a thorough understanding of the effects and implications of the recent financial crisis - Proposes a unified mathematical model accessible to those with basic mathematical skills
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.