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Model results indicate an expected average marketing year price of $4.97 per bushel and a price volatility of 17.5% without the 10 billion gallon EISA mandate but with maintenance of the $0.51 per gallon tax credit. Imposition of the mandate increases the expected price by 7.1% and price volatility by 12.1%. The effects of the mandate are modest as ethanol production would average 9.5 billion gallons without the mandate because of high gasoline prices. The mandate is binding with a probability of 37.8%, which indicates that an additional tax or subsidy will be needed to ensure that the mandate is met. High corn prices caused by drought can cause the mandate to bind. Fixing 2008 corn yields at extreme drought levels increases expected corn prices to $6.59 per bushel without a mandate and to $7.99 per bushel with the EISA mandate. An average additional subsidy of $0.73 per gallon of ethanol would be needed to ensure that the mandate is met in this drought scenario.
Using economic models and empirical analysis, this volume examines a wide range of agricultural and biofuel policy issues and their effects on American agricultural and related agrarian insurance markets. Beginning with a look at the distribution of funds by insurance programs—created to support farmers but often benefiting crop processors instead—the book then examines the demand for biofuel and the effects of biofuel policies on agricultural price uncertainty. Also discussed are genetically engineered crops, which are assuming an increasingly important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and the global food supply. Other contributions discuss the major effects of genetic engineering on worldwide food markets. By addressing some of the most challenging topics at the intersection of agriculture and biotechnology, this volume informs crucial debates.
In the United States, we have come to depend on plentiful and inexpensive energy to support our economy and lifestyles. In recent years, many questions have been raised regarding the sustainability of our current pattern of high consumption of nonrenewable energy and its environmental consequences. Further, because the United States imports about 55 percent of the nation's consumption of crude oil, there are additional concerns about the security of supply. Hence, efforts are being made to find alternatives to our current pathway, including greater energy efficiency and use of energy sources that could lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as nuclear and renewable sources, including solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels. The United States has a long history with biofuels and the nation is on a course charted to achieve a substantial increase in biofuels. Renewable Fuel Standard evaluates the economic and environmental consequences of increasing biofuels production as a result of Renewable Fuels Standard, as amended by EISA (RFS2). The report describes biofuels produced in 2010 and those projected to be produced and consumed by 2022, reviews model projections and other estimates of the relative impact on the prices of land, and discusses the potential environmental harm and benefits of biofuels production and the barriers to achieving the RFS2 consumption mandate. Policy makers, investors, leaders in the transportation sector, and others with concerns for the environment, economy, and energy security can rely on the recommendations provided in this report.
A new economic opportunity for sub-Saharan Africa is looming large: biofuel production. Rapidly rising energy prices are expected to remain high for an extended period of time because of the increasing demand in prospering and populous countries such as China and India, the depletion of easily accessible supplies of crude oil, and concern over global climate change. As a result, there is renewed interest in biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels. Africa is uniquely positioned to produce these new cash crops for both domestic use and export. The region has abundant land resources and preferential access to protected markets with higher-than-world-market prices. The rapid growth in the demand for transport fuels in Africa and high fuel prices create domestic markets for biofuels. The European Union and the United States have approved legislation that requires large increases in the consumption of biofuels over at least the next decade. Imports are expected to be needed to meet these mandates, thus opening the door to African and other developing countries that can produce biofuels or feedstocks for biofuels competitively. Expanding the production of crops for biofuels will affect the entire rural sector in Africa as resources are shifted away from traditional crops and the prices of all agricultural commodities rise. Even smallholders can participate in producing biofuel crops. To promote the sustainability and significant contribution of this enterprise, Biofuels in Africa provides guidance in formulating suitable policy regimes, which are based on protecting the rights of current land users, developing revenue-sharing schemes with local communities, safeguarding the environment and biodiversity, expanding institutional capacity, formulating new regulations and procedures, and emulating best practices from experienced countries. This volume will be of value to anyone interested in biofuels, including policy makers, development practitioners, private investors, researchers, and the general public. Now that African countries are trying to significantly increase their energy supply systems, biofuels are an attractive option using both dedicated crops and agricultural waste. This book provides guidance for them to develop a suitable policy regime for a significant contribution by biofuels. Professor Ogunlade R. Davidson, Minister of Energy and Water Resources, Sierra Leone Biofuels in Africa is a sorely needed resource for our understanding of the problems of expanding biofuels production in Africa. A high point of the book is a description of the projects that were started in several countries. A very useful book! Professor Jos Goldemberg, University of S o Paulo, Brazil As Africa most likely will play the same role for global biofuels as the Middle East does for oil, this comprehensive book on African biofuels should be compulsory reading for anyone interested in either African development or biofuels. The book captures the essence of long-term drivers and opportunities as well the complex challenges for investors and society of this huge emerging industry. Per Carstedt, Executive Chairman, EcoEnergy Africa
The global food crises of 2008 and 2010 and the increased price volatility revolve around biofuels policies and their interaction with each other, farm policies and between countries. While a certain degree of research has been conducted on biofuel efficacy and logistics, there is currently no book on the market devoted to the economics of biofuel policies. The Economics of Biofuel Policies focuses on the role of biofuel policies in creating turmoil in the world grains and oilseed markets since 2006. This new volume is the first to put together theory and empirical evidence of how biofuel policies created a link between crop (food grains and oilseeds) and biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) prices. This combined with biofuel policies role in affecting the link between biofuels and energy (gasoline, diesel and crude oil) prices will form the basis to show how alternative US, EU, and Brazilian biofuel policies have immense impacts on the level and volatility of food grain and oilseed prices.
Handbook of Biofuels Production, Second Edition, discusses advanced chemical, biochemical, and thermochemical biofuels production routes that are fast being developed to address the global increase in energy usage. Research and development in this field is aimed at improving the quality and environmental impact of biofuels production, as well as the overall efficiency and output of biofuels production plants. The book provides a comprehensive and systematic reference on the range of biomass conversion processes and technology. Key changes for this second edition include increased coverage of emerging feedstocks, including microalgae, more emphasis on by-product valorization for biofuels' production, additional chapters on emerging biofuel production methods, and discussion of the emissions associated with biofuel use in engines. The editorial team is strengthened by the addition of two extra members, and a number of new contributors have been invited to work with authors from the first edition to revise existing chapters, thus offering fresh perspectives. - Provides systematic and detailed coverage of the processes and technologies being used for biofuel production - Discusses advanced chemical, biochemical, and thermochemical biofuels production routes that are fast being developed to address the global increase in energy usage - Reviews the production of both first and second generation biofuels - Addresses integrated biofuel production in biorefineries and the use of waste materials as feedstocks
Drought is one of the likely consequences of climate change in many regions of the world. Together with an increased demand for water resources to supply the world's growing population, it represents a potentially disastrous threat to water supplies, agriculture and food production, leading to famine and environmental degradation. Yet predicting drought is fraught with difficulty. The aim of this book is to provide a review of the historical occurrence of global drought, particularly during the 20th century and assess the likely potential changes over the 21st century under climate change. This includes documentation of the occurrence and impacts of major 20th century drought events and analysis of the contributing climatic and environmental factors that act to force, prolong and dissipate drought. Contemporary drought is placed in the context of climate variability since the last ice age, including the many severe and lengthy drought events that contributed to the demise of great civilizations, the disappearance of lakes and rivers, and the conversion of forests to deserts. The authors discuss the developing field of drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting and describe how this is vital for identifying emerging droughts and for providing timely warning to help reduce the impacts. The book provides a broad overview of large scale drought, from historic events such as the US Dust Bowl and African Sahel, and places this in the context of climate variability and change. The work is soundly based on detailed research that has looked at drought occurrence over the 20th century, global drought monitoring, modelling and seasonal prediction, and future projections from climate models.
It is difficult to find an area of public policy more plagued by misunderstanding than energy policy. Even worse, every time the subject is raised, we are obligated to get mired in pointless arguments about the weather. This book helps set the record straight. Not convinced? Consider some of these inconvenient truths: The cost of green energy climate remediation is anywhere from 10-to-1,000 times greater than the damage from the climate change it attempts to alleviate. Germany, the worlds leader in solar energy, will spend more than $280 billion by 2030 on solar subsidies. But all of that investment will only forestall 22nd century global warming by 37 hours. Obamas carbon tax would cost Americans $1.2 trillion over just ten years. But it would only reduce the midrange 3 degree modeled 22nd century global temperature increase by 0.038 degrees Celsius. At their current emissions growth rate, it will take China nine months to replace the entire U.S. emissions cut that Obama wants to achieve over seven years, at a staggering cost in American jobs and lost economic growth. The U.S. biofuel program imposes a cost on consumers 9,862 times greater than any climate benefit they or their distant progeny will ever derive. This is not another skeptical global warming polemic but an economic evaluation of how and why green energy will fail. The world has too many pressing needs. For the money Obama squandered on just a single bankrupt crony solar company, the U.S. could have prevented 300,000 childhood malaria deaths in poor countries. A thoroughly researched, heavily documented book by an expert in his field, it will demonstrate in meticulous detail how wasteful and economically inefficient Obamas green energy dead end future will be compared to other worthy alternatives. Its time to end the hysterical climate cynicism and get on humanitys side.
In this compelling argument for a new direction in U.S. energy policy, a world-renowned engineer and the bestselling author of "The Case for Mars" lays out a bold plan for breaking the economic stranglehold that the OPEC oil cartel has on the world. With a new Preface and Postscript by the author.
This completely revised second edition includes new information on biomass in relation to climate change, new coverage of vital issues including the "food versus fuel" debate, and essential new information on "second generation" fuels and advances in conversion techniques. The book begins with a guide to biomass accumulation, harvesting, transportation and storage, as well as conversion technologies for biofuels. This is followed by an examination of the environmental impact and economic and social dimensions, including prospects for renewable energy. The book then goes on to cover all the main potential energy crops.