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In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is no systematic study on the effects on all Latin American countries. We present the results from applying a multi-sector model with perfect competition presented by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The exercise, based on input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors, shows that (i) Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit most from the agreement, (ii) negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries appear to be of a different order of magnitude than the gains of members, and (iii) some non-TPP LAC countries may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP. As a cautionary note, however, we point out that even a cursory cross-study comparison shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential effects of the TPP for both members and non-members.
In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is no systematic study on the effects on all Latin American countries. We present the results from applying a multi-sector model with perfect competition presented by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The exercise, based on input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors, shows that (i) Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit most from the agreement, (ii) negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries appear to be of a different order of magnitude than the gains of members, and (iii) some non-TPP LAC countries may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP. As a cautionary note, however, we point out that even a cursory cross-study comparison shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential effects of the TPP for both members and non-members.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries has generated the most intensive political debate about the role of trade in the United States in a generation. The TPP is one of the broadest and most progressive free trade agreements since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The essays in this Policy Analysis provide estimates of the TPP's benefits and costs and analyze more than 20 issues in the agreement, including environmental and labor standards, tariff schedules, investment and competition policy, intellectual property, ecommerce, services and financial services, government procurement, dispute settlement, and agriculture. Through extensive analysis of the TPP text, PIIE scholars present an indispensable and detailed "reader's guide" that also sheds light on the agreement's merits and shortcomings. In Rich People Poor Countries, Caroline Freund identifies and analyzes nearly 700 emerging-market billionaires whose net worth adds up to more than $2 trillion. Freund finds that these titans of industry are propelling poor countries out of their small-scale production and agricultural past and into a future of multinational industry and service-based mega firms. And more often than not, the new billionaires are using their newfound acumen to navigate the globalized economy, without necessarily relying on political connections, inheritance, or privileged access to resources. This story of emerging-market billionaires and the global businesses they create dramatically illuminates the process of industrialization in the modern world economy.
The Japan-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPPA) of 2018 is the most far-reaching 'megaregional' economic agreement in force, with several major countries beyond its eleven negotiating countries also interested. Still bearing the stamp of the original US involvement before the Trump-era reversal, TPP is the first instance of 'megaregulation': a demanding combination of inter-state economic ordering and national regulatory governance on a highly ambitious substantive and trans-regional scale. Its text and ambition have influenced other negotiations ranging from the Japan-EU Agreement (JEEPA) and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to the projected Pan-Asian Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This book provides an extensive analysis of TPP as a megaregulatory project for channelling and managing new pressures of globalization, and of core critical arguments made against economic megaregulation from standpoints of development, inequality, labour rights, environmental interests, corporate capture, and elite governance. Specialized chapters cover supply chains, digital economy, trade facilitation, intellectual property, currency levels, competition and state-owned enterprises, government procurement, investment, prescriptions for national regulation, and the TPP institutions. Country studies include detailed analyses of TPP-related politics and approaches in Japan, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Thailand. Contributors include leading practitioners and scholars in law, economics, and political science. At a time when the WTO and other global-scale institutions are struggling with economic nationalism and geopolitics, and bilateral and regional agreements are pressed by public disagreement and incompatibility with digital and capital and value chain flows, the megaregional ambition of TPP is increasingly important as a precedent requiring the close scrutiny this book presents.
With changes to the international investment law landscape and Asian countries now actively developing their network of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and free trade agreements (FTAs), this volume studies issues relating to Asian perspectives on international investment law and forecasts the future of Asian contribution to its science and practice. The book discusses the major factors that have been driving Asian countries to new directions in international investment rule-making and dispute settlement. It also looks at whether Asian countries are crafting a new model of international investment law to reflect their specific socio-cultural values. Finally, the book examines whether there are any ‘Asian’ styles of international investment rule-making and dispute settlement, or if individual Asian countries are seeking specific national ‘models’ based on economic structure and geopolitical interests. This unique collection is exceptionally useful to students, scholars and practitioners of international investment law, international trade law and public international law.
This paper analyzes the international trade relations of the United States, Canada, and Mexico with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) member countries currently and historically in order to provide insights for TPP's future effects provided it potentially comes into force. Using a gravity model estimation, we find that the existing free trade agreements (FTAs) between TPP countries (intra-TPP) and FTAs between TPP members and other countries (extra-TPP) have positively impacted trade in the 1980-2015 period. A successful completion of the TPP agreement promises to boost trade further.

Brazil

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2017-07-14

Total Pages: 111


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This Selected Issues paper examines the proximate causes of dramatic fall in investment in Brazil and the prospects for investment going forward. A variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.
With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape—where slow growth, low productivity, and high income inequality are creating pressure for a shift toward inward- looking policies in some advanced economies. Domestic fundamentals and developments, however, will continue to play a significant role in determining growth for the region. At the same time, risks to the outlook have widened in a setting of higher global uncertainty. In this challenging external context, countries should aim for completing fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers. Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require strengthening structural reforms. Specifically, closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes, and encouraging female labor participation are necessary to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. Chapters in this report examine the ongoing external adjustment to terms-of-trade shifts, drivers of capital flows to the region, the role of the investor base, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.
This book proposes a renewal of 'Open Regionalism' in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) aimed at achieving the region's goals of high growth with stability. The LAC region experienced a growth spurt with equity during the first decade of the 21st Century. It is well understood that an unsustainable demand boom fueled by terms-of-trade improvements drove this growth acceleration episode, especially in South America. Unfortunately, terms of trade are no longer fueling growth, and the region’s policymakers are in search of new sources of growth with stability. With the experience of East Asia and the Pacific in mind, many policymakers in LAC are looking to international economic ties as a potential source of stable growth. The challenge highlighted in this book lies in designing an integration agenda comprising trade and factor market integration that is conducive to region-wide efficiency gains, which can help LAC enhance its global competitiveness. The forces of geography imply that pro-growth global integration cannot be achieved without building a strong neighborhood. Thus, this volume argues that LAC's regional economic integration agenda needs to go well beyond the current spaghetti bowl of preferential trading arrangements.