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This dissertation focuses on the intersection of agricultural productivity, youth employment, and investments in human capital development in Sub–Saharan Africa (SSA). Agriculture is a dominant employer and source of income in SSA, and plays an important role in youth employment and educational attainments.In Chapter 1, we study the role of structural transformation in the labor reallocation between the farm and the non–farm sector and the consequential impact on worker demographics. Specifically, we investigate whether agricultural productivity differentially reallocates labor by age and gender. We develop a theoretical model where increased land productivity leads to younger individuals sorting into the non–farm sector while older individuals sort into agriculture. We then use data from Zambia in our empirical analysis. Our main results show some evidence of productivity affecting labor reallocation within recent productivity lags (last 2 years) but not when longer productivity lags (4 or 6) are considered. Specifically, consistent with our model prediction, a 10% increase in a 2–year lagged moving average of productivity decreases the probability of farming by 0.3 percentage points among youth (15–24) and older youth (25–34). We also show that youth (15–24) also exit farming following increased productivity. Increased productivity tends to reduce the intensity of farming across all age groups but the reduction is relatively larger among the youth. In addition, young men are more likely to exit business activity as productivity increases relative to young women – across all productivity lags. In the short term (2–lags), while youth exit farming, there is no differential outcome between genders. However, among older youth, males are more likely to exit farming compared to women. Finally, males mainly drive the reduction in intensity of farming. Overall, while we find some evidence in favor of our hypotheses, the evidence is generally limited to the short term and the marginal effects are quantitatively small.Chapter 2 investigates the impact of agricultural productivity on human capital investments in Tanzania. Agriculture remains a major source of employment and income in Tanzania. Therefore, any agricultural productivity shocks are likely to affect educational investment decisions. Our results provide evidence that increased agricultural productivity boosts spending on uniform, contributions and total academic expenses. We find positive but statistically non–significant effects of productivity on study times. In addition, we find no evidence of heterogeneous effects by student gender. We show evidence that productivity effects are smaller in female–headed households. Finally, we find some evidence that post–primary students experience larger impacts compared to primary school students.In Chapter 3, I investigate the impact of primary school electrification on academic outcomes in Kenya. Between 2014 and 2016, the number of primary schools with electricity rose from 56% to 94%. Schools near the grid network were connected to grid electricity while those further received solar photovoltaics. Using this rapid electrification expansion as a source of identifying variation in a panel fixed effects model, the paper estimates the impact on school test scores, enrollment, and completion. The paper also attempts to quantify the effects of lighting on education performance by relying on the off–grid (solar) electricity coefficients. Using a universe of 8th grade students in public schools in Kenya, the paper finds no evidence that electricity affects test scores or enrollment in the short run. However, off–grid electrification increases completion by 1%. Using off–grid estimates, the paper concludes that lighting has a small positive impact on completion but not on test scores or enrollment.
The authors examine the challenges facing Africa's youth in their transition from school to working life, and propose a policy framework for meeting these challenges. Topics covered include the effect of education on employment and income, broadening employment opportunities, and enhancing youth capabilities. The book includes a CD-ROM of case studies of four countries and household data on 13 countries.
Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.
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Distress migration is particularly acute among rural youth. Agriculture and rural development are central to the rate of rural out-migration to urban areas. The agricultural sector needs to engage youth in order to increase global food production. In doing so, agricultural transformation can balance out-migration from rural areas and thus contribute to stable growth. This document presents the conceptual framework for distress migration of rural youth. The framework focuses on the migration of rural youth (aged 15–24), who account for a large proportion of migrants and are a particularly vulnerable group. The framework comprises three sections: 1. Analysis of the main factors determining the propensity of rural youth to migrate; 2. Assessment of the likely impacts of distress migration of rural youth in terms of rural development for local areas of origin; 3. Illustration of the most promising policies and programmes to reduce distress migration of rural youth and maximize its dev elopmental benefits for the communities of origin.
This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.
This book brings together recent findings from quantitative and qualitative research from across Africa to illuminate how young men and women engage with the rural economy, imagine their futures and how development policies and interventions find traction (or not) with these realities. Through framing, overview and evidence-based chapters, it provides a critical perspective on current discourse, research and development interventions around youth and rural development. It is organised around commonly-made foundational claims: that large numbers of young people are leaving rural areas; have no interest in agriculture; cannot access land; are stuck in permanent waithood; that the rural economy provides (or can provide) a wealth of opportunity; and that they can be the engine of rural transformation. It draws from existing literature and new analysis arising from several multi-country and multi-disciplinary studies, focusing on gender and other aspects of social difference. It is a major contribution to current debates and development policy about youth, agriculture and employment in rural Africa.
The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.
"The theme of The World Development Report 2007 is youth - young people between the ages of 12 to 24. As this population group seeks identity and independence, they make decisions that affect not only their own well-being, but that of others, and they do this in a rapidly changing demographic and socio-economic environment. Supporting young people's transition to adulthood poses important opportunities and risky challenges for development policy. Are education systems preparing young people to cope with the demands of changing economies? What kind of support do they get as they enter the labor market? Can they move freely to where the jobs are? What can be done to help them avoid serious consequences of risky behavior, such as death from HIV-AIDS and drug abuse? Can their creative energy be directed productively to support development thinking? The report will focus on crucial capabilities and transitions in a young person's life: learning for life and work, staying healthy, working, forming families, and exercising citizenship. For each, there are opportunities and risks; for all, policies and institutions matter."