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The pioneering study by Bowman [1980) reawakened interest in risk and return relations in the strategic management literature. We do not examine this literature here because we have elsewhere reviewed it in detail 1 and because, for the most part, these studies have been confined to ex post data. Discussions of the strategies which subjects used to direct their ex ante evaluations of risks and returns have either been omitted or else have been only indirectly inferred from ex post data. In addition, with few exceptions, this literature does not attempt to ascertain the meanings that might have been assigned by subjects to terms like "risk" and/or the "returns" with which they have been concerned. Even fewer of these studies have attempted to ascertain how the subjects implemented their definitions en of prospective strategies. Thus, tius literature may route to arriving at evaluations best be regarded as bearing only indirect relations to the present study which is concerned not only with the meanings assigned to terms like "risk" and "return" but also with how these terms are used in arriving at risk and return evaluations of proposed strategies as well as how they are measured and used, on an ex ante basis en route to seeing how these evaluations match with ex post performance. In a sense, one part of this study--i. e.
The Fifth International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, not suprisingly, had several objectives. First, it aimed at beinq a forum for exchange and intensive discussion of recent ideas on theory and practice of MCDM, following the now well-established tradition of the previous meetings in the series, organized by H. Thiriez and S. Zionts in Jouy-en-Josas (1975), S. Zionts in Buffalo (1977), G. Fandel and T. Gal in Hagen/Konigswinter (1979) and J. Morse in Newark (1980). Second, closer contacts Nere desired between participants in these meetings and other active groups in the field, prominent among which is the European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. Third, participation of senior or junior researchers who had recently developped important new methodolo0ies, such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process, was actively sought for. Fourth, a synthesis of the rapidly expanding field of MCDM was to be made through selective surveys by leading researchers in the various areas it comprises. Fifth, cross-fertilization and multidisciplinary research was to be encouraged through presentations on the connections between MCDM and mathematics, economics, game theory, computer science and other subjects. Sixth, much emphasis was to be given to real-world applications of MCDM, particularly large scale ones and/or pioneering work in new fields. The present volume reflects the general agreement observed among participants that these goals were largely attained.
A distinguished group of philosophers, decision theorists, and psychologists offer new interdisciplinary perspectives on the rationality of self-control.
This volume collects research papers addressing topical issues in economics and management with a particular focus on dynamic models which allow to analyze and foster the decision making of firms in dynamic complex environments. The scope of the contributions ranges from daily operational challenges firms face to strategic choices in dynamic industry environments and the analysis of optimal growth paths. The volume also highlights recent methodological developments in the areas of dynamic optimization, dynamic games and meta-heuristics, which help to improve our understanding of (optimal) decision making in a fast evolving economy.
The Fifth International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, not suprisingly, had several objectives. First, it aimed at beinq a forum for exchange and intensive discussion of recent ideas on theory and practice of MCDM, following the now well-established tradition of the previous meetings in the series, organized by H. Thiriez and S. Zionts in Jouy-en-Josas (1975), S. Zionts in Buffalo (1977), G. Fandel and T. Gal in Hagen/Konigswinter (1979) and J. Morse in Newark (1980). Second, closer contacts Nere desired between participants in these meetings and other active groups in the field, prominent among which is the European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. Third, participation of senior or junior researchers who had recently developped important new methodolo0ies, such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process, was actively sought for. Fourth, a synthesis of the rapidly expanding field of MCDM was to be made through selective surveys by leading researchers in the various areas it comprises. Fifth, cross-fertilization and multidisciplinary research was to be encouraged through presentations on the connections between MCDM and mathematics, economics, game theory, computer science and other subjects. Sixth, much emphasis was to be given to real-world applications of MCDM, particularly large scale ones and/or pioneering work in new fields. The present volume reflects the general agreement observed among participants that these goals were largely attained.
Professor Dreze is a highly respected mathematical economist and econometrician. This book brings together some of his major contributions to the economic theory of decision making under uncertainty, and also several essays. These include an important essay on 'Decision theory under moral hazard and state dependent preferences' that significantly extends modern theory, and which provides rigorous foundations for subsequent chapters. Topics covered within the theory include decision theory, market allocation and prices, consumer decisions, theory of the firm, labour contracts, and public decisions.
There are two competing pictures of science. One considers science as a system of inferences, whereas another looks at science as a system of actions. The essays included in this collection offer a view which intends to combine both pictures. This compromise is well illustrated by Szaniawski's analysis of statistical inferences. It is shown that traditional approaches to the foundations of statistics do not need to be regarded as conflicting with each other. Thus, statistical rules can be treated as rules of behaviour as well as rules of inference. Szaniawski's uniform approach relies on the concept of rationality, analyzed from the point of view of decision theory. Applications of formal tools to the problem of justice and division of goods shows that the concept of rationality has a wider significance. Audience: The book will be of interest to philosophers of science, logicians, ethicists and mathematicians.
This book presents the main principles of preference disaggregation analysis and covers theoretical advances in preference modelling, group decision making, classification methods, robustness analysis, process mining, and decision support systems. In addition, it highlights several applications of the preference disaggregation analysis in a wide range of areas, such as customer satisfaction analysis, consumer behavior, energy and environmental policy, strategy development, and agricultural marketing. This book was published in honor of Yannis Siskos on the occasion of his retirement from the University of Piraeus, Greece. It offers a unique snapshot of the preference disaggregation philosophy in multiple criteria decision analysis and presents a range of research ideas, many of which were significantly influenced by Professor Siskos work.
Social choices, about expenditures on government programs, or about public policy more broadly, or indeed from any conceivable set of alternatives, are determined by politics. This book is a collection of essays that tie together the fields spanned by Jeffrey S. Banks' research on this subject. It examines the strategic aspects of political decision-making, including the choices of voters in committees, the positioning of candidates in electoral campaigns, and the behavior of parties in legislatures. The chapters of this book contribute to the theory of voting with incomplete information, to the literature on Downsian and probabilistic voting models of elections, to the theory of social choice in distributive environments, and to the theory of optimal dynamic decision-making. The essays employ a spectrum of research methods, from game-theoretic analysis, to empirical investigation, to experimental testing.
This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into five parts: Technology Policy Planning, Strategic Technology Planning, Technology Assessment, Application Extensions, and Methodology Extensions. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics research and development, education, government planning, agriculture, energy, technology transfer, semiconductor manufacturing, and has influenced policy locally, nationally, and internationally. Moreover, his students developed advanced tools and software applications to further improve and enhance the robustness of the HDM approach. Dr. Kocaoglu has made many contributions to the field of Engineering and Technology Management. During his tenure at Portland State University, he founded the Engineering and Technology Management program, where he served as Program Director and later, Department Chair. He also started the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), which organizes an annual conference in international locations such as Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Thailand, and Japan. His teaching has won awards and resulted in a strong sense of student loyalty among his students even decades later. Through his academic work and research, Dr. Kocaoglu has strongly supported researchers of engineering management and has provided tremendous service to the field. This volume recognizes and celebrates Dr. Kocaoglu’s profound contributions to the field, and will serve as a resource for generations of researchers, practitioners and students.