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This publication presents an analysis of the evolution of the competitiveness in the traded goods sectors in six Latin American countries. It finds that the competitiveness of the nontraditional traded goods sector has evolved in different ways among these countries during recent years. Since the mid-1990s, it has stabilized in Argentina while improving in Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Results for Brazil are ambiguous.
This paper tests the hypothesis of ‘commodity currency’ on the nuevo sol and, more generally, identifies the drivers of Peru’s equilibrium real exchange rate using a cointegration analysis. The results show that export commodity prices do not have a statistically significant impact on Peru’s real effective exchange rate, suggesting that the nuevo sol is not a commodity currency. The paper provides empirical evidence that large profit repatriation and foreign exchange intervention have effectivelly insulated Peru’s real exchange rate from the impact of commodity price shocks. Peru’s equilibrium real exchange rate is found to be driven mostly by productivity and government consumption.
Along with the development of economic globalization, many countries have begun to relax their controls on their capital accounts. However, the recent financial crises in Latin American countries as well as the exchange rate crises in Southeast Asian countries have shown that there is major risk associated with capital account liberalization.This b
Financial crises are dramatic events. When they emerge, they tend to dominate the attention of the press and become the focus of policymakers. In one form or another, they have affected the lives of millions of people throughout the world. As references to 16th century Dutch tulips, 18th South Seas merchant ventures, or 1920s Florida real estate make clear, they have been around for a long time. At their worst, such as in the cases of the Great Depression or the current Great Recession, their effects have been felt worldwide, with the number of people affected counted into the billions. They have at times changed the course of history. This book analyses ten of the most important financial crises of the last thirty years. The specific crises covered in the book are the 1982 Chilean crisis, the 1992 ERM crisis, the 1994 Mexican crisis, the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, the 1999 Brazilian crisis, the 1999 Ecuadorian crisis, the 2000 Turkish crisis, the 2002 Argentine crisis, and the 2008 crisis in Iceland. The set includes the most important emerging-market crises of the last three decades as well as two particularly informative advanced-country crises, the ERM crisis of 1992 and the Icelandic crisis of 2008. A separate chapter is devoted to each crisis, and a brief concluding chapter sums up some of the key lessons that I believe that we can draw from these events.

Peru

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2015-05-27

Total Pages: 68


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This Selected Issues paper describes recent investment dynamics in Peru, and assesses the relationship between private investment and its fundamentals. Over the last decade, average growth in Peru exceeded 6 percent, anchored by a substantial contribution from investment. A series of structural reforms in the 1990s, growing political stability, and the implementation of a solid macroeconomic framework in the early 2000s set the stage for this investment boom. Actions were also taken to strengthen public investment implementation and to enhance the overall investment climate. Now that commodity prices have softened and interest rates are expected to rise, addressing the next generation of structural reforms will be crucial to sustain investment and growth.
Peru stands out among Latin American countries as an example of successful economic reforms over the past decade. This comprehensive look at Peru's economy traces that country's journey from a debt crisis in the 1980s to having buffers in place that allowed it to emerge unscathed from the global financial crisis. The book examines the steps Peru undertook to achieve these results and extracts lessons to be learned. Chapters are written by IMF staff and Peruvian economists.
This book presents a selection of peer-reviewed contributions on the latest advances in time series analysis, presented at the International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting (ITISE 2019), held in Granada, Spain, on September 25-27, 2019. The first two parts of the book present theoretical contributions on statistical and advanced mathematical methods, and on econometric models, financial forecasting and risk analysis. The remaining four parts include practical contributions on time series analysis in energy; complex/big data time series and forecasting; time series analysis with computational intelligence; and time series analysis and prediction for other real-world problems. Given this mix of topics, readers will acquire a more comprehensive perspective on the field of time series analysis and forecasting. The ITISE conference series provides a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest advances and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary research encompassing computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.
This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.
Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment provides a unified theoretical and empirical investigation of exchange rate policy and performance in scores of developing countries. It develops a theory of equilibrium and disequilibrium real exchange rates, takes up the question of why devaluations are the most controversial policy measures in poorer nations, and discusses what determines their success or failure. In a lucid fashion, Edwards organizes vast amounts of data on exchange rates - both real and nominal - and discusses their effect on net trade balances, net asset positions, output growth, real wages, and rates of price inflation, analyzed both in time series and through cross country comparisons. Edwards's investigation singles out 39 major devaluation episodes for before and after comparative analyses while simultaneously isolating the separate effects of other important explanatory variables, such as bank credit expansion and changes in the terms of trade. The first part of the book focuses on theoretical models of devaluation and real exchange rate behavior in less developed countries. Special attention is paid to intertemporal channels in the transmission of disturbances. The second part uses a large cross country data set to analyze the way the real exchange rate has behaved in these nations. The data are also used to test the implications of several theories of real exchange rate determination. The third part analyzes actual devaluation experiences between 1962 and 1982. These chapters examine the events leading to a balance of payments crisis and to a devaluation, exploring the relation between macroeconomic disequilibrium, and the imposition of trade and exchange controls. They also investigate the effect of nominal devaluation on key variables such as the balance of payments, the current account, the real exchange rate, real output real wages, and income distribution.
The politics surrounding exchange rate policies in the global economy The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices. Exchange rates are set, either directly or indirectly, by government policy. Exchange rates are also central to the global economy, for they profoundly influence all international economic activity. Despite the critical role of exchange rate policy, there are few definitive explanations of why governments choose the currency policies they do. Filled with in-depth cases and examples, Currency Politics presents a comprehensive analysis of the politics surrounding exchange rates. Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry's characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. With an ambitious mix of narrative and statistical investigation, Currency Politics clarifies the political and economic determinants of exchange rate policies.