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The Advanced Research Institute (ARI) on "The Application of Systems Science to Energy Policy Planning" was held under the auspices of the NATO Special Programme Panel on Systems Science in collaboration with the National Center for Analysis of Energy Sys tems, Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA, as a part of the NATO Science Committee's continuous effort to promote the advancement of science through international cooperation. Advanced Research Institutes are sponsored by the NATO Science Committee for the purposes of bringing together senior scientists to seek consensus on an assessment of the present state of knowl edge on a specific topic and to make recommendations for future research directions. Meetings are structured to encourage inten sive group discussion. Invitees are carefully selected so that the group as a whole will contain the experience and expertise neces sary to make the conclusions valid and significant. A final report is published presenting the various viewpoints and conclusions. The NATO Systems Science Panel noted that the systems approach is increasingly being applied to energy policy analysis and plan ning in both public and private sectors of national economies. Consequently, it seemed appropriate at this time to bring together experts to review and evaluate recent experience, in order to iden tify strengths and weaknesses in current prac tice, and to make recommendations for research directions.
China’s energy use has been doubling every decade.
The analysis of energy systems is of paramount importance in modern societies, since it is fundamental to guarantee a sustainable economic development. It combines technical and economic research with a specific focus on quantitative modelling, in order to optimize the modalities of energy demand and supply globally. The book covers major advanced topics related to the analysis of energy by considering different aspects, namely management, planning and policies. The most recent trends, such as smart grids, transition from fossil fuels to renewables based energy systems and distributed generation, are also discussed in this book. Intended to be a collection of various contributions from experts all around the world, it includes latest research results, innovations and methodologies about the analysis of energy systems. The book also focuses to contribute to the current debate related to the evolution of energy systems, by discussing in an open way the pro’s and con’s without any pre-constitute point of view. Title is aimed to be a reference for the academic community, students and professionals with a wider interdisciplinary background. Key Features: Presents integration of renewable sources with conventional energy systems. Topic is addressed from a multidisciplinary point of view, i.e. economy, technical, modelling, planning. Investigates management and planning aspects of future energy supplies. Multidimensional nature of energy systems is highlighted and discussed. Contributes towards implementing policy measures to reduce primary energy consumptions and carbon footprint.
The roles and applications of various modeling approaches, aimed at improving the usefulness of energy policy models in public decision making, are covered by this book. The development, validation, and applications of system dynamics and agent-based models in service of energy policy design and assessment in the 21st century is a key focus. A number of modeling approaches and models for energy policy, with a particular focus on low-carbon economic development of regions and states are covered. Chapters on system dynamics methodology, model-based theory, fuzzy system dynamics frame-work, and optimization modeling approach are presented, along with several chapters on future research opportunities for the energy policy modeling community. The use of model-based analysis and scenarios in energy policy design and assessment has seen phenomenal growth during the past several decades. In recent years, renewed concerns about climate change and energy security have posed unique modeling challenges. By utilizing the validation techniques and procedures which are effectively demonstrated in these contributions, researchers and practitioners in energy systems domain can increase the appeal and acceptance of their policy models.
In this book, a number of long-term energy scenarios are developed for Nigeria considering the impact of vital factors that may influence energy policies in the country’s future energy system. The energy scenarios were developed through the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. The model identified the future energy demand and supply pattern using a least-cost combination of technology options while limiting the emission of greenhouse gases. The book presents four scenarios, and key parameters considered include GDP, households, population, urbanization and the growth rates of energy-intensive sectors. Further, it highlights the findings of the cost-benefit analysis, which reveal the costs of implementing selected policies and strategies in Nigeria, including those focusing on energy efficiency and fuel/technology switching. The book also discusses the application of the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model in order to identify lowest-cost power plants for electricity generation. Some sustainable strategies that can ensure a low carbon development in Nigeria are also explored on the basis of successful country cases in relation to the Nigerian LEAP model. As such, the book will help policy makers devise energy and sustainable strategies to achieve low carbon development in Nigeria.
Despite a 2016-18 glut in fossil fuel markets and decade-low fuel prices, the global transformation to sustainable energy is happening. Our ongoing energy challenges and solutions are complex and multidimensional, involving science, technology, design, economics, finance, planning, policy, politics, and social movements. The most comprehensive book on this topic, Energy for Sustainability has been the go-to resource for courses. This new edition has been thoroughly revised and updated to inform and guide students and practitioners who will steer this transformation. Drawing on a combined 80 years of teaching experience, John Randolph and Gilbert Masters take a holistic and interdisciplinary approach. Energy for Sustainability can help techies and policymakers alike understand the mechanisms required to enable conversion to energy that is clean, affordable, and secure. Major revisions to this edition reflect the current changes in technology and energy use and focus on new analyses, data, and methods necessary to understand and actively participate in the transition to sustainable energy. The book begins with energy literacy, including patterns and trends, before covering the fundamentals of energy related to physics, engineering, and economics. The next parts explore energy technologies and opportunities in three important energy sectors: buildings, electricity, and transportation. The final section focuses on policy and planning, presenting the critical role of public policy and consumer and investor choice in transforming energy markets to greater sustainability. Throughout the book, methods for energy and economic analysis and design give readers a quantitative appreciation for and understanding of energy systems. The book uses case studies extensively to demonstrate current experience and illustrate possibilities.
Long-term energy planning is central to a country's strategic direction. Without it, governments may end up relying on a patchwork of policies and legislation that can be incoherent and ill-suited for the complex challenges countries are increasingly faced with. Good long-term energy planning encompasses domestic and foreign policy, while touching on many key areas of the economy including industry, natural resources and trade. The process involves multiple stakeholders across the government, but also brings in the private sector as well as citizens, as it aims to set out a strategic path towards a clear goal. Azerbaijan, like many of its peers, is looking to understand how best to meet the opportunities and complexities of the global clean energy transition. The 2014-2015 oil shock prompted the government to consider and draft a slate of new laws and reform packages, and at present efforts are being made to finalise and pass an energy strategy. The price volatility seen in global markets over 2020-2022 is making it even clearer that energy planning using scenario analysis and modelling will help countries successfully respond to new and unexpected challenges in a resilient fashion. This roadmap details the necessary steps in building that process and exploring relevant policy options that producer economies have pursued, which may be relevant to Azerbaijan. It then discusses data collection and survey design, which are key to establishing the base for energy modelling. The roadmap then looks at energy modelling and its role in policy making. This roadmap aims to help Azerbaijan reconsider the policy planning process as it looks to connect key laws and reforms into a greater energy strategy. It also sets out a path for Azerbaijan to make this process sustainable and iterative, connecting its policymakers with its statisticians, and investing in in-house modelling capacity. Every country must choose its own energy path, based on its specific needs and resources, but having a long-term plan can smooth out that path significantly.