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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
The book “Economic Inequality – Trends, Traps and Trade-offs” presents the unexplored issues of economic inequality, including case studies of various countries. Inequality is a chronic divisive factor of society. It is well known that inequalities (such as economic, social, cultural, religious, geographical, etc.) have been omnipresent in human society. Inequalities can be found within each family, each community, and each nation and thus globally. Inequality is a major cause of political, economic, social instability, and creates crisis and conflict within society. A major cause of inequality is unequal, uneven, biased, power centric distributions of human economic, social, political, cultural and spiritual human necessities.The edited book examines the major parameters of the socio-economic issues of inequality and focuses on the key economic issues of inequality, namely, income and wealth distribution, equity & equality of outcome, and equality of opportunities. Economic inequality is measured by wealth, income dsiproportions in distribution and consumption patterns in a specific area. Mostly, inequality is measured using various statistical tools including the Gini Coefficient, inequality adjusted human development index, 20:20 ratio, Palma ratio, Hoover index, Galt score, Coefficient of variation, Theil index, wage share etc. However, not all income can be measured by these tools. By using case studies, this book encourages us to reframe economic development through the lens of growing inequalities and disparities. Economic growth per se is disproportional, and the efforts of scholars, practitioners and policymakers should be directed to empower the marginalized of society in a way that ‘no one should left behind’ (UN Slogan).
Japanese and American economists assess the present economic status of the elderly in the United States and Japan, and consider the impact of an aging population on the economies of the two countries. With essays on labor force participation and retirement, housing equity and the economic status of the elderly, budget implications of an aging population, and financing social security and health care in the 1990s, this volume covers a broad spectrum of issues related to the economics of aging. Among the book's findings are that workers are retiring at an increasingly earlier age in both countries and that, as the populations age, baby boomers in the United States will face diminishing financial resources as the ratio of retirees to workers sharply increases. The result of a joint venture between the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Japan Center for Economic Research, this book complements Housing Markets in the United States and Japan (1994) by integrating research on housing markets with economic issues of the aged in the United States and Japan.
Today's fragile economic climate requires new solutions to the problem of high healthcare costs. Organizations simply cannot afford runaway medical expenses, unproductive workplaces, and sick workers. In this landmark book, Dee W. Edington, PhD, former Director of the University of Michigan Health Management Research Center, draws from his 30 years of research and experience to explain how organizations can control health management and disability expenditures while keeping their workforces healthy and productive. Dr. Edington's message is straightforward, yet profound. His three key strategies, "Don't Get Worse," "Keep Healthy Employees Healthy," and "Create a Culture of Health," can help reduce the healthcare and productivity-related costs that are bankrupting American businesses. Zero Trends: Health as a Serious Economic Strategy provides the guidance and the inspiration organizations need in their search for lower medical expenditures and higher-performing workplaces.
Early in the twenty-first century, a quiet revolution occurred. For the first time, the major developed economies began to invest more in intangible assets, like design, branding, and software, than in tangible assets, like machinery, buildings, and computers. For all sorts of businesses, the ability to deploy assets that one can neither see nor touch is increasingly the main source of long-term success. But this is not just a familiar story of the so-called new economy. Capitalism without Capital shows that the growing importance of intangible assets has also played a role in some of the larger economic changes of the past decade, including the growth in economic inequality and the stagnation of productivity. Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake explore the unusual economic characteristics of intangible investment and discuss how an economy rich in intangibles is fundamentally different from one based on tangibles. Capitalism without Capital concludes by outlining how managers, investors, and policymakers can exploit the characteristics of an intangible age to grow their businesses, portfolios, and economies.
The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
As China evolves, so does the global marketplace—all the way down to the consumer The End of Cheap China is a detailed look at the rise of China, and how it will affect the global marketplace. A thorough exploration of the changes taking place in the Chinese economy, the book explains how much of the Western consumerist culture is built on the back of cheap Chinese factory labor, and warns that the era is coming to a close. Readers will learn why the cheap labor pool is beginning to dry up, what that means for the rest of the world, and how businesses will have to adapt to stay afloat. This updated second edition includes new statistics, the latest news on the Chinese economy, and additional case studies that illustrate the ways in which China has developed—into a brand-new potential market. China's social, political, and economic evolution will affect the entire world. Rising incomes are building pressure on the global commodities market, inflation is only just beginning, and consumers are experiencing sticker shock as cheap labor is becoming harder to find. The End of Cheap China explains the factors driving these changes, the impact that can be expected, and the opportunities that constitute a major silver lining for businesses panicking about the coming paradigm shift. Readers will: Discover the eight mega-trends changing China, and how far the ripples will spread Learn how rising costs in China will dramatically affect the American way of life Examine the rise of Chinese consumption, and the friction it engenders Consider the changes businesses must make to remain profitable in a changing world The global marketplace is evolving, and it's up to businesses to keep pace with the changes. The End of Cheap China provides a roadmap for navigating these changes, helping businesses lead the charge toward a more affluent global economy.
The growth rate of national income has fluctuated widely in the United States since 1929. In this volume, Edward F. Denison uses the growth accounting methodology he pioneered and refined in earlier studies to track changes in the trend of output and its determinants. At every step he systematically distinguishes changes in the economy’s ability to produce--as measured by his series on potential national income--from changes in the ratio of actual output to potential output.Using data for earlier years as a backdrop, Denison focuses on the dramatic decline in the growth of potential national income that started in 1974 and was further accentuated beginning in 1980, and on the pronounced decline from business cycle to business cycle in the average ratio of actual to potential output, a slide under way since 1969. The decline in growth rates has been especially pronounced in national income per person employed and other productivity measures as growth of total outputhas slowed despite a sharp acceleration in growth of employment and total hours at work. Denison organizes his discussion around eight table that divide 1929-82 into three long periods (the last, 1973-82) and seven shorter periods (the most recent, 1973-79 and 1979-82). These tables provide estimates of the sources of growth for eight output measures in each period. Denison stresses that the 1973-82 period of slow growth in unfinished. He observes no improvement in the productivity trend, onlya weak cyclical recovery from a 1982 low. Sources-of-growth tables isolate the contributions made to growth between "input” and "output per unit of input.” Even so, it is not possible to quantify separately the contribution of all determinants, and Denison evaluates qualitatively the effects of other developments on the productivity slowdown.
The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.