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This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
In this study, Professor Sylos Labini offers an analysis of growth that is at once theoretical, historical and statistical. The central aim of neo-classical economics has been to discover the equilibrium values of prices, incomes, employment and production. This text by contrast, seeks to understand the logic behind the movement of these quantities over time.
Business Cycles in Economic Thought underlines how, over the time span of two centuries, economic thought interacted with cycles in a continuous renewal of theories and rethinking of policies, whilst economic actions embedded themselves into past economic thought. This book argues that studying crises and periods of growth in different European countries will help to understand how different national, political and cultural traditions influenced the complex interaction of economic cycles and economic theorizing. The editors of this great volume bring together expert contributors consisting of economists, historians of economic thought and historians of economics, to analyse crises and theories of the nineteenth and the twentieth century. This is alongside a comprehensive outlook on the most relevant advances of economic theory in France, Germany and Italy, as well as coverage of non-European countries, such as the United States. Several of the highly prestigious Villa Vigoni Trilateral Conferences formed the background for the discussions in this book. This volume is of great interest to students and academics who study history of economic thought, political economy and macroeconomics.
Over the past two decades, the issue of equilibrium indeterminacy has been one of the major research concerns in macroeconomic dynamics. Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy discusses the main topics in this literature. Based on comprehensive surveys and the author’s original research, this book explores sunspot-driven fluctuations in real business cycle models, multiple equilibria in endogenous growth models, and the stabilization effects of fiscal and monetary policy rules. The book also considers equilibrium indeterminacy in open economy models.
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
Economic growth and business cycles are two distinct, but closely related issues. Economic growth is one of the most demanding challenges for policy makers and economists all over the world. In industrial countries, significant demographic changes in the decades ahead will have a major impact. At the same time, the degree of interdependency between economic regions is increasing, posing a challenge for industrial as well as developing countries. Business cycles as a topic for economic research sometimes follow a cyclical pattern themselves. Especially after long and strong boom periods the business cycle is often said to be obsolete, replaced by a new kind of pattern, a 'new' economy or the like. The empirical problem for analysts of both growth and business cycles is that new developments are difficult to monitor in real time. Cyclical, structural and other patterns are overlapping, making it difficult to assess the nature of observations. The INFER Annual Conference 2003 on "Determinants of Growth and Business Cycles: Theory, Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications" which was held in September 2003 in Giessen, Germany, gave room for theoretical papers, empirical results and case studies, including vigorous policy statements as well as elaborate modelling with a focus on practical relevance. Most of the presented papers and one of the introductory lectures are included in this volume. Papers were presented in three sessions: Session I focused on the "Determinants of Growth". Session II was on "Business Cycles: Theory and Empirical Evidence". Session III covered "Convergence and Economic Development". Contributors to this volume come from two continents and eight countries, working in research institutes, universities, central banks and international organisations.