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Econometric Modelling of World Shipping describes an economic model that may be used to forecast world shipping markets. A unique feature of the model is that it relates to both sectors of world shipping, the dry cargo sector and the tanker sector. This is the first time that a model of this type has been published. This book also breaks new ground in explaining the behaviour of vessel prices, both new and secondhand.
Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.
Economic Modeling and Inference takes econometrics to a new level by demonstrating how to combine modern economic theory with the latest statistical inference methods to get the most out of economic data. This graduate-level textbook draws applications from both microeconomics and macroeconomics, paying special attention to financial and labor economics, with an emphasis throughout on what observations can tell us about stochastic dynamic models of rational optimizing behavior and equilibrium. Bent Jesper Christensen and Nicholas Kiefer show how parameters often thought estimable in applications are not identified even in simple dynamic programming models, and they investigate the roles of extensions, including measurement error, imperfect control, and random utility shocks for inference. When all implications of optimization and equilibrium are imposed in the empirical procedures, the resulting estimation problems are often nonstandard, with the estimators exhibiting nonregular asymptotic behavior such as short-ranked covariance, superconsistency, and non-Gaussianity. Christensen and Kiefer explore these properties in detail, covering areas including job search models of the labor market, asset pricing, option pricing, marketing, and retirement planning. Ideal for researchers and practitioners as well as students, Economic Modeling and Inference uses real-world data to illustrate how to derive the best results using a combination of theory and cutting-edge econometric techniques. Covers identification and estimation of dynamic programming models Treats sources of error--measurement error, random utility, and imperfect control Features financial applications including asset pricing, option pricing, and optimal hedging Describes labor applications including job search, equilibrium search, and retirement Illustrates the wide applicability of the approach using micro, macro, and marketing examples
This book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in the dry bulk shipping market, a major component of the world shipping industry. Recent uncertainties in the world economy, shipbuilding developments and fleet changes mean the dry bulk shipping market has become extremely volatile, highly speculative and more sensitive to external shocks. In response to these challenging circumstances, this book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in various markets including the freight market, the new build ship market and the second-hand ship market. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation of dry bulk shipping over a 60-year period in diverse sub-markets, trading routes, market conditions and dry bulk vessels. The authors also propose a framework for analysing and modelling the economic processes of numerous variables in the dry bulk shipping market, making use of modern econometric techniques and other economic approaches. This will be especially useful for the control and assessment of risk for ship owners and charterers in ship operation, ship chartering and ship trading activities. This book will be extremely useful for shipbuilders, owners and charterers, as well as shipping analysts and policymakers. It will also be of great interest to academics and researchers concerned with the economics of the shipping industry.
This book proposes a new methodology for the selection of one (model) from among a set of alternative econometric models. Let us recall that a model is an abstract representation of reality which brings out what is relevant to a particular economic issue. An econometric model is also an analytical characterization of the joint probability distribution of some random variables of interest, which yields some information on how the actual economy works. This information will be useful only if it is accurate and precise; that is, the information must be far from ambiguous and close to what we observe in the real world Thus, model selection should be performed on the basis of statistics which summarize the degree of accuracy and precision of each model. A model is accurate if it predicts right; it is precise if it produces tight confidence intervals. A first general approach to model selection includes those procedures based on both characteristics, precision and accuracy. A particularly interesting example of this approach is that of Hildebrand, Laing and Rosenthal (1980). See also Hendry and Richard (1982). A second general approach includes those procedures that use only one of the two dimensions to discriminate among models. In general, most of the tests we are going to examine correspond to this category.
Now in its second edition Maritime Economics provides a valuable introduction to the organisation and workings of the global shipping industry. The author outlines the economic theory as well as many of the operational practicalities involved. Extensively revised for the new edition, the book has many clear illustrations and tables. Topics covered include: * an overview of international trade * Maritime Law * economic organisation and principles * financing ships and shipping companies * market research and forecasting.
Model Building is the most fruitful area of economics, designed to solve real-world problems using all available methods such as mathematical, computational and analytical, without distinction. Wherever necessary, we should not be reluctant to develop new techniques, whether mathematical or computational. That is the philosophy of this volume. The volume is divided into three distinct parts: Methods, Theory and Applications. The Methods section is in turn subdivided into Mathematical Programming and Econometrics and Adaptive Control System, which are widely used in econometric analysis. The impacts of fiscal policy in a regime with independent monetary authority and dynamic models of environmental taxation are considered. In the section on "Modelling Business Organization," a model of a Japanese organization is presented. Furthermore, a model suitable for an efficient budget management of a health service unit by applying goal programming method is analyzed, taking into account various socio-economic factors. This is followed by a section on "Modelling National Economies," in which macroeconometric models for the EU member countries are analyzed, to find instruments that stabilize inflation with coordinated action.
This volume puts forward a group of models applied to different economies, capturing the progress and growth of their economic systems. The models provide a quantified framework for the formulation of economic policy. They aid the introduction of targets and policy instruments taking account of constraints in the process of development. Also, an evaluation of external and internal shocks is taken using a comparative static type of analysis. The models take into account constraints which are in the nature of institutional as well as supply constraints. Problems of data exist in any quantitative analysis and account was taken of this factor in presenting the models and the results reached. Nonetheless, the models attempt to specify, estimate and simulate a given macroeconomic system. Models of this type are not freely available to the interested reader, but only in a fragmented way. This book puts the efforts of a group of economists worldwide under one cover. It is believed that the collection will be of interest both for courses in planning and for those adviSing these countries such as international organizations, research bodies, etc. Moreover, an overview of trade policy and income distributional factors is presented. It is hoped that this collection will prove interesting and useful to economists world wide.
This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. Humanity is risking the health of the natural environment through a myriad of interventions, including the atmospheric emission of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, the use of ozone-depleting chemicals, the engineering of massive land-use changes, and the destruction of the habitats of many species. It is imperative that we learn to protect our common geophysical and biological resources. Although scientists have studied greenhouse warming for decades, it is only recently that society has begun to consider the economic, political, and institutional aspects of environmental intervention. To do so raises formidable challenges of data modeling, uncertainty, international coordination, and institutional design. Attempts to deal with complex scientific and economic issues have increasingly involved the use of models to help analysts and decision makers understand likely future outcomes as well as the implications of alternative policies. This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. They can help policy makers design better economic and environmental policies.
Econometric Model Specification reviews and extends the author's papers on consistent model specification testing and semi-nonparametric modeling and inference. This book consists of two parts. The first part discusses consistent tests of functional form of regression and conditional distribution models, including a consistent test of the martingale difference hypothesis for time series regression errors. In the second part, semi-nonparametric modeling and inference for duration and auction models are considered, as well as a general theory of the consistency and asymptotic normality of semi-nonparametric sieve maximum likelihood estimators. Moreover, this volume also contains addendums and appendices that provide detailed proofs and extensions of all the results. It is uniquely self-contained and is a useful source for students and researchers interested in model specification issues.