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This book, by one of the world's leading experts on dynamic panel data, presents a modern review of some of the main topics in panel data econometrics. The author concentrates on linear models, and emphasizes the roles of heterogeneity and dynamics in panel data modelling. The book combines methods and applications, so will appeal to both the academic and practitioner markets. The book is divided in four parts. Part I concerns static models, and deals with the problem of unobserved heterogeneity and how the availability of panel data helps to solve it, error component models, and error in variables in panel data. Part II looks at time series models with error components. Its chapters deal with the problem of distinguishing between unobserved heterogeneity and individual dynamics in short panels, modelling strategies of time effects, moving average models, inference from covariance structures, the specification and estimation of autoregressive models with heterogeneous intercepts, and the impact of assumptions about initial conditions and heteroskedacity on estimation. Part III examines dynamics and predeterminedness. Its two chapters consider alternative approaches to estimation from small and large T perspectives, looking at models with both strictly exogenous and lagged dependent variables allowing for autocorrelation of unknown form, models in which the errors are mean independent of current and lagged values of certain conditioning variables but not with their future values. Together Parts II and III provide a synthesis, and unified perspective, of a vast literature that has had a significant impact on recent econometric practice. Part IV reviews the main results in the theory of generalized method of moments estimation and optimal instrumental variables.
A guide to the continually evolving field of labour economics.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Usually explanatory variables in an econometric model are supposed related at one time with the endogenous variable, so usually the temporary sub-indices of all variables are equal. However, economic theory and other sciences lead us to dynamic relationship between the variables, since the impacts between variables can become manifest in later periods or extended to many periods. In this way appear dynamic models with variables out in time. Dynamic models usually seen three different situations according to the variables affected by delays. It may be that the delays involved only to exogenous variables, only the endogenous variable or simultaneously to endogenous and exogenous variables. This book covers a wide typology of dynamic models including models with distributed delays, models with stochastic regressors, models with structural change and dynamic panel data models. Widely is the theory of unit roots, the Cointegration and error correction models. And all this from a perspective multi-software, using the latest software on the market suitable for these non-trivial econometric tasks (SAS, EVIEWS, SPSS and STATA).
Using quarterly temperature and sectoral value-added data for a large sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), this paper uncovers nuanced effects of temperature on economic activity. For EMDEs, hotter spring and summer temperatures reduce growth in real value-added of manufacturing, and most significantly, of agriculture, while a warmer winter boosts it. For advanced countries (AEs), a hotter spring hurts growth in real value-added of all considered sectors: services, manufacturing and agriculture. For both country groups, the negative effect of a hotter spring is larger and more persistent than the positive effect of a warmer winter. Furthermore, the adverse impacts of hotter temperatures in advanced economies have accentuated in recent decades. This result suggests increased vulnerability to rising temperatures.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kosovo’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights growth and Kosovo’s external environment. In the wake of the global financial crisis, Kosovo’s economic growth slowed but remained positive, while most other Western Balkans slipped into recession. Moreover, the annual average growth rate has been among the highest in the Western Balkans since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. Kosovo’s tax-to-GDP ratio is comparable to the average of Southeastern Europe, although its tax system relies significantly more on indirect taxation—including a high share of trade taxes. Kosovo’s reliance on trade taxes may create budgetary pressures in the event of further trade liberalization.
This Selected Issues paper discusses performance and risks posed by government-related entities (GREs) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). GREs continue to be a major source of growth and development for the UAE, but they also pose significant fiscal and financial risks. GREs’ debt remains high in the UAE, although it is declining and remains actively managed. To mitigate GREs’ risks, the authorities should build on recent progress and develop an integrated approach, including implementing prudent fiscal policies, enhancing macro- and microprudential frameworks, controlling GREs’ borrowing and integrating them into the public debt management framework, and further strengthening corporate governance and transparency.
This book consists of papers that present the findings of research done by the SMERU Research Institute in Jakarta, Indonesia. Most describe the effects on the poor of the Indonesian economic crisis of 1997-98 and the response of the Indonesian government in the form of a Social Safety Net consisting of poverty mitigation programs. With the gradual recovery of the economy after 2000, the Indonesian government began reducing subsidies for fuel products and has channelled budgetary savings into a new series of targeted social protection and poverty alleviation undertakings that include unconditional cash transfers. The effectiveness of Indonesia's poverty alleviation programs has, however, been reduced by the difficulty of targeting beneficiaries accurately because of a lack of reliable, up-to-date poverty figures. In many instances unsuitable targeting methodology has been compounded by bad governance at the local level, while the introduction of regional autonomy, accompanied by the decentralization of authority to the district level, has formed a further complicating factor.