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Many relationships in economics, and also in other fields, are both dynamic and nonlinear. A major advance in econometrics over the last fifteen years has been the development of a theory of estimation and inference for dy namic nonlinear models. This advance was accompanied by improvements in computer technology that facilitate the practical implementation of such estimation methods. In two articles in Econometric Reviews, i.e., Pötscher and Prucha {1991a,b), we provided -an expository discussion of the basic structure of the asymptotic theory of M-estimators in dynamic nonlinear models and a review of the literature up to the beginning of this decade. Among others, the class of M-estimators contains least mean distance estimators (includ ing maximum likelihood estimators) and generalized method of moment estimators. The present book expands and revises the discussion in those articles. It is geared towards the professional econometrician or statistician. Besides reviewing the literature we also presented in the above men tioned articles a number of then new results. One example is a consis tency result for the case where the identifiable uniqueness condition fails.
Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series Analysis presents recent developments in this important area of research. This is the first volume to focus on the more recent literature on nonlinear time series. Specific topics covered with respect to nonlinearity include cointegration tests, risk-related asymmetries, structural breaks and outliers, Bayesian analysis with a threshold, consistency and asymptotic normality, asymptotic inference, and error-correction models.
This 1997 book presents developments in nonlinear economic dynamics along with related research from other fields, including mathematics, statistics, biology, and physics.
This interdisciplinary book argues that the economy has an underlying non-linear structure and that business cycles are endogenous, which allows a greater explanatory power with respect to the traditional assumption that dynamics are stochastic and shocks are exogenous. The first part of this work is formal-methodological and provides the mathematical background needed for the remainder, while the second part presents the view that signal processing involves construction and deconstruction of information and that the efficacy of this process can be measured. The third part focuses on economics and provides the related background and literature on economic dynamics and the fourth part is devoted to new perspectives in understanding nonlinearities in economic dynamics: growth and cycles. By pursuing this approach, the book seeks to (1) determine whether, and if so where, common features exist, (2) discover some hidden features of economic dynamics, and (3) highlight specific indicators of structural changes in time series. Accordingly, it is a must read for everyone interested in a better understanding of economic dynamics, business cycles, econometrics and complex systems, as well as non-linear dynamics and chaos theory.
This edited collection concerns nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It is divided into four broad themes that all reflect the work and methodology of Professor Timo Teräsvirta, one of the leading scholars in the field of nonlinear time series econometrics. The themes are: Testing for linearity and functional form, specification testing and estimation of nonlinear time series models in the form of smooth transition models, model selection and econometric methodology, and finally applications within the area of financial econometrics. All these research fields include contributions that represent state of the art in econometrics such as testing for neglected nonlinearity in neural network models, time-varying GARCH and smooth transition models, STAR models and common factors in volatility modeling, semi-automatic general to specific model selection for nonlinear dynamic models, high-dimensional data analysis for parametric and semi-parametric regression models with dependent data, commodity price modeling, financial analysts earnings forecasts based on asymmetric loss function, local Gaussian correlation and dependence for asymmetric return dependence, and the use of bootstrap aggregation to improve forecast accuracy. Each chapter represents original scholarly work, and reflects the intellectual impact that Timo Teräsvirta has had and will continue to have, on the profession.
In recent years nonlinearities have gained increasing importance in economic and econometric research, particularly after the financial crisis and the economic downturn after 2007. This book contains theoretical, computational and empirical papers that incorporate nonlinearities in econometric models and apply them to real economic problems. It intends to serve as an inspiration for researchers to take potential nonlinearities in account. Researchers should be aware of applying linear model-types spuriously to problems which include non-linear features. It is indispensable to use the correct model type in order to avoid biased recommendations for economic policy.
Nonlinear models have been used extensively in the areas of economics and finance. Recent literature on the topic has shown that a large number of series exhibit nonlinear dynamics as opposed to the alternative--linear dynamics. Incorporating these concepts involves deriving and estimating nonlinear time series models, and these have typically taken the form of Threshold Autoregression (TAR) models, Exponential Smooth Transition (ESTAR) models, and Markov Switching (MS) models, among several others. This edited volume provides a timely overview of nonlinear estimation techniques, offering new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. It features cutting-edge research from leading academics in economics, finance, and business management, and will focus on such topics as Zero-Information-Limit-Conditions, using Markov Switching Models to analyze economics series, and how best to distinguish between competing nonlinear models. Principles and techniques in this book will appeal to econometricians, finance professors teaching quantitative finance, researchers, and graduate students interested in learning how to apply advances in nonlinear time series modeling to solve complex problems in economics and finance.
This book was first pUblished in 1989 as volume 336 in the Springer series "Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems", and it reappeared in a 2nd edition as a Springer monograph in 1991. After considerable revisions it appeared in a 3rd edition in 1993. The origin, still visible in the 3rd edition, was the joint work of the author with Professor Martin J. Beckmann, documented in two co-authored mono graphs "Spatial Economics" (North-Holland 1985), and "Spatial Structures" (Springer-Verlag 1990). Essential dynamics had, however, been almost com pletely lacking in these works, and the urge to focus the dynamic issues was great. To fill this particular gap was the aim of the previous editions, and so the spatial aspect provided core and focus. In the present edition a substantial quantity of spatial issues have been removed: All those that were dynamic only in the sense that structures were characterized which were structurally stable, or robust in a changing world. The removed material has meanwhile been published as a separate mono graph under the title "Mathematical Location and Land Use Theory" (Springer-Verlag 1996).
This book explores the dynamic processes in economic systems, concentrating on the extraction and use of the natural resources required to meet economic needs. Sections cover methods for dynamic modeling in economics, microeconomic models of firms, modeling optimal use of both nonrenewable and renewable resources, and chaos in economic models. This book does not require a substantial background in mathematics or computer science.
The basic characteristic of Modern Linear and Nonlinear Econometrics is that it presents a unified approach of modern linear and nonlinear econometrics in a concise and intuitive way. It covers four major parts of modern econometrics: linear and nonlinear estimation and testing, time series analysis, models with categorical and limited dependent variables, and, finally, a thorough analysis of linear and nonlinear panel data modeling. Distinctive features of this handbook are: -A unified approach of both linear and nonlinear econometrics, with an integration of the theory and the practice in modern econometrics. Emphasis on sound theoretical and empirical relevance and intuition. Focus on econometric and statistical methods for the analysis of linear and nonlinear processes in economics and finance, including computational methods and numerical tools. -Completely worked out empirical illustrations are provided throughout, the macroeconomic and microeconomic (household and firm level) data sets of which are available from the internet; these empirical illustrations are taken from finance (e.g. CAPM and derivatives), international economics (e.g. exchange rates), innovation economics (e.g. patenting), business cycle analysis, monetary economics, housing economics, labor and educational economics (e.g. demand for teachers according to gender) and many others. -Exercises are added to the chapters, with a focus on the interpretation of results; several of these exercises involve the use of actual data that are typical for current empirical work and that are made available on the internet. What is also distinguishable in Modern Linear and Nonlinear Econometrics is that every major topic has a number of examples, exercises or case studies. By this `learning by doing' method the intention is to prepare the reader to be able to design, develop and successfully finish his or her own research and/or solve real world problems.