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This paper investigates factors that predict variation in digital and non-digital remittance fees over time and across countries, exploring differences between CAPDR and other regions. The paper fills a void in the literature on how country- and corridor-specific factors relate to remittance fees at different levels of digitalization of the transaction mode. It also complements stylized facts and regression analysis with a survey analysis of the CAPDR authorities’ views on the latest developments, possibilities, and risks related to digital remittances with a view to gauging the authorities’ potential role in further reducing the cost of cross-border payments more generally and remittances fees in particular. The paper finds a clear trend of declining remittance fees across countries and at any level of digitalization, albeit they remain higher for CAPDR countries relative to non-CAPDR countries. More competition, financial and digital development in receiving countries—such as debit/credit card ownership or bank branch penetration—are associated with lower remittance fees, especially in CAPDR. The surveyed authorities actively explore the use of digital money to advance domestic payment systems, expedite financial inclusion, and lower remittances fees, yet see considerable risks, especially for preserving monetary sovereignty in CAPDR.
Abstract: Accelerating economic growth in Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) remains an elusive task. While the region performed relatively well in the post-global financial crisis period, over the last five years obstacles to growth have become more evident and new challenges have emerged. In response, the region has strengthened macro-financial frameworks but more progress will be required to pave the way to sustained growth and prosperity. This book considers the structural factors underlying the region’s growth outlook and assesses its macroeconomic and financial challenges to help shape the policy agenda going forward. The book first identifies the structural determinants of growth in the region related to: capital formation; employment; demographic factors, including immigration; productivity; and violence. It then highlights the importance of creating fiscal space through the design and implementation of fiscal rules and mechanisms to increase accountability (better quality of public spending, adequate policies to reduce income inequality and sustainable retirement plans). Finally, it presents recent evidence on the importance of a supportive financial sector for growth (including through financial inclusion and development).
This is an excerpt from Paving the Way to Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic edited by Kimberly Beaton, Roberto Garcia Saltos, and Lorenzo Figliuoli. Over the past three decades, countries in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic have experienced sustained economic transfor-mation. The region has moved away from its rural and agricultural past to a modern and urban present and has significantly integrated its econ-omies regionally and globally. Many factors have shaped the region’s economic performance and are expected to contribute to its future development. The book aims to foster policy dialogue and contribute to the efforts to address the region’s unique challenges. The first part looks at the region’s growth with a view to understanding how structural determinants have contributed to the region’s uneven gains and the resulting priorities to strengthen the foundations of growth. The second part of the book high-lights the importance of addressing the region’s fiscal challenges and supporting growth and improved social outcomes. Finally, the third part of the book emphasizes the importance of a supportive financial sector for growth, including through financial inclusion and development. This excerpt is taken from uncorrected page proofs. Please check quota-tions and attributions against the final published volume.
Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic coped well with the global financial crisis of 2008-09. The impact was generally less severe and shorter lived than in previous episodes, the balance of payments adjustment was orderly, and the stability of the financial system was not compromised. This resilience can be attributed to a large extent to the strengthening of the fiscal frameworks, monetary management, and financial reforms conducted in the years preceding the global crisis. Nevertheless, the region faces considerable challenges for the period ahead, including the need to raise medium term growth above historical levels and protect macroeconomic and financial stability. This book argues that meeting these challenges will have to come from within, in light of the anticipated modest demand growth from trade partners. Raising growth in the region will depend on the adoption of structural reforms that generate substantial productivity gains. Rebuilding fiscal space and securing debt sustainability will hinge on efforts to increase tax revenue and reorienting spending to social and investment priorities. In the non-officially dollarized economies, it will also be essential to strengthen the monetary policy frameworks to keep inflation low and increase exchange rate flexibility, and improve financial regulation and supervision.
This paper studies the potential for the export sector to play a more important role in promoting growth in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) through deeper intra-regional and global trade integration. CAPDR countries have enacted many free trade agreements and other regional integration initiatives in recent years, but this paper finds that their exports remain below the norm for countries of their size. Several indexes of outward orientation are constructed and suggest that the breadth of geographic trading relationships, depth of integration into global production chains, and degree of technological sophistication of exports in CAPDR are less conducive to higher exports and growth than in fast-growing, export-oriented economies. To boost exports and growth, CAPDR should implement policies to facilitate economic integration, particularly building a customs union, harmonizing trade rules, improving logistics and infrastructure, and enhancing regional cordination.
This paper addresses the question of why inflation has not yet converged to price stability in Central America and the Dominican Republic and is currently relatively high by Latin American standards. It suggests that despite the institutional strengthening of monetary policy, important flaws remain in most central banks, in particular a lack of a clear policy mandate and little political autonomy, which are adversely affecting the consistency of policy implementation. Empirical analysis reveals that all central banks raise interest rates to curtail inflation but only some of them increase it sufficiently to effectively tackle inflation pressures. It also shows that some central banks care simultaneously about exchange rate stability. The potential policy conflict arising from a dual central bank mandate and the unpredictable policy response is probably undermining markets' confidence in central banks' commitment to price stability, thereby perpetuating an inflation bias.
Following the companion paper on the new policy challenges related to the adoption of digital forms of money, this paper presents an operational strategy for the IMF to continue delivering on its mandate of ensuring domestic and international financial and economic stability. The paper begins by summarizing the forces driving the adoption of digital forms of money, and the new policy questions that emerge. It then focusses on how the IMF’s core activities and output will need to evolve, including surveillance, capacity development, and analytical foundations. It ends by discusses how the IMF intends to partner with other organization, and to grow and structure internal resources to fulfill this vision.
After providing a general overview of the nature, pros, and cons of crypto assets and CBDCs, this paper focuses on documenting their recent experience in LAC. The region records a high interest in unbacked crypto assets and stablecoins and its authorities’ policy responses have varied substantially, ranging from the introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador to their prohibition in many other countries worried about their impact on financial stability, currency/asset substitution, tax evasion, corruption, and money laundering. This paper also describes briefly the results of a survey on CBDCs’ introduction plans and crypto assets regulation. Finally, this paper presents some general lessons and policy recommendations for the region on the regulation of cypto assets, digital currencies and cross-border payments, and on the potential introduction of CBDCs.
In the past decade, fintech has shaken up the financial sector in Latin America providing innovations in lending, payments, insurance, and regulation and compliance. This paper examines this development by focusing on both fintech services and regulation. Exploring fintech’s macro-critical impact using country- and bank-level data, we find that booming financial technologies in Latin America have helped boost competition in the banking sector and inclusion. Additionally, we demonstrate that fintech firms in Latin America experienced robust growth even during the pandemic supported by external funding. Finally, we discuss how regulators are addressing the risks associated with financial technologies and how they are leveraging fintech tools in their supervisory activities.
The Nicaraguan economy remained resilient through multiple shocks over the past five years, supported by appropriate policies, substantial pre-crisis buffers (primarily government deposits), and multilaterals support. After a strong rebound in 2021, the economy continued to grow at a steady pace in 2022 and through June 2023 (3.8 percent). Inflation slowed down, the fiscal position turned into a surplus, and record-high remittances, sustained Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and prudent policies supported a continued accumulation of gross international reserves. Banks remain well capitalized, and the loan portfolio is steadily improving with the economic recovery.