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We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
The global economic and financial crisis that started in 2007 exposed serious flaws in the euro's original design. This report examines why Europe's economic and monetary union was so badly affected by the crisis, and assesses whether further changes need to be made to the structure of economic governance that underpins it. A Chatham House, Elcano and AREL Report
This book offers a critical perspective from which to observe evolution of the Euro Area and the European Union in these times of growing economic and political conflict.
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
The SDN elaborates the case for, and the design of, a banking union for the euro area. It discusses the benefits and costs of a banking union, presents a steady state view of the banking union, elaborates difficult transition issues, and briefly discusses broader EU issues. As such, it assesses current plans and provides advice. It is accompanied by three background technical notes that analyze in depth the various elements of the banking union: a single supervisory framework; a single resolution and common safety net; and urgent issues related to repair of weak banks in Europe.
Launched in March 2010 by the European Commission, the Europe 2020 strategy aims to achieve "smart, sustainable, and inclusive" growth. The engines for this growth are - Knowledge and innovation - Greener and more efficient use of resources - Higher employment combined with social and territorial cohesion This CEPS report takes an in-depth look at this major initiative and finds that the strategy itself needs to be revised in several important respects. First, the authors believe, R&D spending per se is not the best indicator of innovativeness; a new measure, intangible capital, would be more appropriate. Second, while increasing the share of the workforce with a university degree is important for competitiveness and employment, it is the quality of that education that matters more than the quantity. The study also finds that employment targets would be better reached by a skills upgrade among women who have the least education. Concerning climate change, the authors conclude that unless the EU increases the level of its ambition and adds a carbon import tariff, reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have a negligible impact on global climate change. Finally and more generally, the report argues that the 2020 strategy should acknowledge the importance of institutional efficiency at the national level.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
This book provides critical insights about how U.S. policymaking is likely to be imperiling America's future, and how only the most efficient and productive organizations and governments will reap globalization's greatest rewards. Vital areas such as vocational training, manufacturing, infrastructure, sustainable debt creation and the STEM worker shortage crisis are extensively examined and innovative solutions are proposed. Twenty-seven common-good indicators are presented for assessing policymaking, aimed at providing maximum transparency and accountability.