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Data assimilation is a hugely important mathematical technique, relevant in fields as diverse as geophysics, data science, and neuroscience. This modern book provides an authoritative treatment of the field as it relates to several scientific disciplines, with a particular emphasis on recent developments from machine learning and its role in the optimisation of data assimilation. Underlying theory from statistical physics, such as path integrals and Monte Carlo methods, are developed in the text as a basis for data assimilation, and the author then explores examples from current multidisciplinary research such as the modelling of shallow water systems, ocean dynamics, and neuronal dynamics in the avian brain. The theory of data assimilation and machine learning is introduced in an accessible and unified manner, and the book is suitable for undergraduate and graduate students from science and engineering without specialized experience of statistical physics.
The understanding of complex systems is a key element to predict and control the system’s dynamics. To gain deeper insights into the underlying actions of complex systems today, more and more data of diverse types are analyzed that mirror the systems dynamics, whereas system models are still hard to derive. Data assimilation merges both data and model to an optimal description of complex systems’ dynamics. The present eBook brings together both recent theoretical work in data assimilation and control and demonstrates applications in diverse research fields.
The sustainable development of the agriculture sector is the only option to meet the demands of increased and economically viable production in a changing climate. This means there is a need to introduce the latest technologies to enhance production, and also help policymakers make decisions for the future. Geospatial technologies & tools, such as remote sensing, geographical information systems (GIS), global positioning systems (GPS), and mobile & web applications, provide unique capabilities to analyze multi-scale, multi-temporal datasets, and support decision-making in sustainable agriculture development and natural resources management. Further, the availability of reliable and timely geospatial information on natural resources and environmental conditions is essential for sustainable agricultural development and food security. Since remote sensing solutions are fast, non-destructive and have large spatial coverage, they can play a significant role in the identification, inventory, and mapping of land resources. Over the past four decades, remote sensing has proved to be a cost-effective and powerful tool to assess crop and soil properties in varying spatial and temporal scales using both visual and digital techniques. Satellite remote sensing coupled with GIS & mobile-app based positional information has emerged as an efficient tool for optimizing input resources, and minimizing cost of production and risk of biotic/ abiotic factors nature to promote sustainable agriculture. This book comprehensively documents the applications of space-based technologies for crop and soil assessments for the sustainable development of agriculture.
This book reviews popular data-assimilation methods, such as weak and strong constraint variational methods, ensemble filters and smoothers. The author shows how different methods can be derived from a common theoretical basis, as well as how they differ or are related to each other, and which properties characterize them, using several examples. Readers will appreciate the included introductory material and detailed derivations in the text, and a supplemental web site.
Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.
This book provides a self-contained and up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared. Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topics and a moderate prerequisite for the reader, this book should be of interest to a broad audience of quantitative researchers such as computational biologists, computer scientists, econometricians, engineers, probabilists, and statisticians. It can also be used as a textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods.
Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.
Data Assimilation for the Geosciences: From Theory to Application brings together all of the mathematical,statistical, and probability background knowledge needed to formulate data assimilation systems in one place. It includes practical exercises for understanding theoretical formulation and presents some aspects of coding the theory with a toy problem. The book also demonstrates how data assimilation systems are implemented in larger scale fluid dynamical problems related to the atmosphere, oceans, as well as the land surface and other geophysical situations. It offers a comprehensive presentation of the subject, from basic principles to advanced methods, such as Particle Filters and Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo methods. Additionally, Data Assimilation for the Geosciences: From Theory to Application covers the applications of data assimilation techniques in various disciplines of the geosciences, making the book useful to students, teachers, and research scientists. Includes practical exercises, enabling readers to apply concepts in a theoretical formulation Offers explanations for how to code certain parts of the theory Presents a step-by-step guide on how, and why, data assimilation works and can be used
This book contains the most recent progress in data assimilation in meteorology, oceanography and hydrology including land surface. It spans both theoretical and applicative aspects with various methodologies such as variational, Kalman filter, ensemble, Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence methods. Besides data assimilation, other important topics are also covered including targeting observation, sensitivity analysis, and parameter estimation. The book will be useful to individual researchers as well as graduate students for a reference in the field of data assimilation.
Data assimilation is an approach that combines observations and model output, with the objective of improving the latter. This book places data assimilation into the broader context of inverse problems and the theory, methods, and algorithms that are used for their solution. It provides a framework for, and insight into, the inverse problem nature of data assimilation, emphasizing why and not just how. Methods and diagnostics are emphasized, enabling readers to readily apply them to their own field of study. Readers will find a comprehensive guide that is accessible to nonexperts; numerous examples and diverse applications from a broad range of domains, including geophysics and geophysical flows, environmental acoustics, medical imaging, mechanical and biomedical engineering, economics and finance, and traffic control and urban planning; and the latest methods for advanced data assimilation, combining variational and statistical approaches.