Download Free Cross Border Spillovers From Fiscal Stimulus Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Cross Border Spillovers From Fiscal Stimulus and write the review.

Fiscal stimulus was widely advocated during the global crisis, a period characterized by monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) in many countries, in part because of expected positive spillovers. Standard New Keynesian models predict the cross-border transmission of fiscal shocks is stronger when monetary policy is constrained in recipients. However, the empirical evidence is scarce. This paper bridges this gap by looking at the impact of fiscal shocks in systemic (source) economies on output and demand components in a large group of (recipient) countries, under different monetary policy conditions. Empirical results are compared to simulations with a state-of-the-art estimated open-economy New Keynesian model. Our results corroborate model predictions, finding larger spillovers when recipients are at the ELB, driven by stronger responses of investment and consumption relative to normal times
Economic recessions, social networks, environmental damage in several large countries (eg. China, Brazil, U.S.), the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2015 and cross-border spillovers continue to significantly affect economic systems, financial markets, social structures and environmental compliance worldwide. These have rekindled economists’ and policy-makers’ interest in the relationships among constitutions, risk regulation, foreign aid, political systems, government size, credit expansion and sustainable growth. Risk regulation remains highly ineffective as manifested by the failures of new financial regulations and government stimulus programs that were implemented during 2007-2020 in many developed countries and emerging markets countries. This book, the first of two volumes, addresses these issues in the context of the role of constitutional economics and economic psychology as tools for national and global sustainable growth and risk management. Furthermore, this volume analyzes the often symbiotic relationship between alternative sets of legal-institutional-constitutional rules that constrain the choices and activities of economic and political agents on one hand, and sustainable growth, financial regulation and the risk management of financial institutions on the other; and reviews the effects of constitutions and legal institutions on market dynamics (real estate; fixed-income, stocks; etc.) including volatility, market depth and liquidity. This book will help researchers develop better artificial intelligence and decision-systems models of geopolitical risk, public policy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly relevant to investment managers, boards-of-directors and government officials.
Economic recessions, environmental damage in several large countries (eg. China, Brazil, U.S., etc.), the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2015, the COVID-19 Pandemic, cross-border spillovers and the failures of risk-regulation/government-stimulus programs (enacted during 2007-2020) have significantly affected economic systems, financial markets, social networks and environmental compliance worldwide, especially in emerging markets. The foregoing raises significant economic psychology and policy-making questions about the causes and measurement of cross-border spillovers (from developed countries to emerging markets), and evolving relationships among cross-border spillovers, legal/regulatory institutions, foreign aid, political systems, government size, social-welfare, fintech-platforms, asset-market dynamics (volatility, market-depth, liquidity, pension/retirement, remittances, business/consumer confidence; etc.) and sustainable growth. This book is the first of two volumes, re-defines geopolitical risk and addresses these issues in the context of the role of constitutional economics and economic psychology (especially households and companies) as tools for global sustainable growth and risk management. This book can help researchers develop better Artificial Intelligence, Complex Systems and decision-theory models of geopolitical risk, public policy, asset-pricing, global corporate strategy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly relevant to investment managers, corporate executives, boards-of-directors and government officials. Michael I. C. Nwogugu is an author, serial entrepreneur and consultant who has held senior management, Board of Director and Advisory Board Member positions in companies in the U.S., Europe, Asia and Africa. Mr. Nwogugu wrote the following books: Risk In the Global Real Estate Market (2012); Illegal File-sharing Networks, Digital Goods Pricing And Decision Analysis (2016); Anomalies In Net Present Value, Returns And Polynomials; And Regret Theory In Decision-Making (2017); Indices, Index Funds And ETFs - Exploring HCI, Nonlinear Risk And Homomorphisms (2019); Complex Systems, Multi-Sided Incentives And Risk Perception In Organizations (2019); and Earnings Management, Fintech-Driven Incentives and Sustainable Growth: On Complex Systems, Legal and Mechanism Design Factors (2020). Mr. Nwogugu's research articles have been cited in more than twenty top science journals. Mr. Nwogugu earned degrees from the University of Nigeria (Nigeria); City College Of New York (USA); and Columbia University (New York City, USA).
This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds rate. We also find that fiscal shocks tend to have larger effects during periods of recessions than expansions in the source country, and that the adverse effect of a fiscal consolidation is larger than the positive effect of the same size of a fiscal expansion. In contrast, we do not find systematic and statistically significant differences in the spillover effects across recipient countries depending on their exchange rate regime, although capital controls seem to play some moderating role. The extension of the analysis to a panel of 16 small open economies confirms the finding from the U.S. economy.
Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-border impact of fiscal policy on economic activity, shedding light on the magnitude and the factors affecting transmission, such as the fiscal instruments used, cyclical positions, monetary policy conditions, and exchange rate regimes. The note assesses spillovers from five major advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) on 55 advanced and emerging market economies that represent 85 percent of global output, looking at government-spending and tax revenue shocks during expansion and consolidation episodes. It finds that fiscal spillovers are economically significant in the presence of slack and/or accommodative monetary policy—and considerably smaller otherwise, which suggests that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large. It also finds that spillovers from government-spending shocks are larger and more persistent than those from tax shocks and that transmission may be stronger among countries with fixed exchange rates. The evidence suggests that although spillovers from fiscal policies in the current environment may not be as large as they were during the crisis, they may still be important under certain economic circumstances.
The paper assesses the impact of fiscal spillovers on growth in the context of a coordinated exit from crisis management policies. We find that despite potentially sizeable domestic effects from consolidation, aggregate negative spillovers to other countries are likely to be contained in 2011-2012 unless fiscal multipliers and/or imports elasticities are very large. Small and open European economies, however, will be substantially affected in any case. In contrast, the coordinated exit from fiscal stimulus will have limited direct effect on European peripheral countries since they are relatively closed, with the notable exception of Ireland.
Many emerging market countries are bank-based economies and are increasingly affected by geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar dynamics, regulations, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), MNCs (that often function like international organizations), social networks, labor dynamics, cross-border spillovers and the inefficient expansion of formal/informal microfinance. Country risks, informal economies (that account for 20-50 percent of the national economy of many emerging market countries), investor protection, enforcement commitment, compliance costs, sustainability (environmental, social, economic and political sustainability), economic growth, political stability, financial stability, geopolitical risk, social networks, household economics, inequality and international trade outcomes can vary dramatically across many DECs and LDECs due to these phenomena. The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the many problems inherent in political systems, economic policy and governments’ emergency powers during pandemics/epidemics and economic/financial crisis. This second volume focuses on geopolitical risks that are intertwined with constitutional political economy and labor issues, alongside addressing some of the financial and constitutional crises that occurred in Europe, Asia and the U.S. during 2007-2020. This book provides analysis of complex systems and the preferences and reasoning of state/government and corporate actors in order to develop better artificial intelligence and decision-system models of geopolitical risk, public policy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly important decision factors for investment managers, boards-of-directors and government officials.
Financial sectors in low-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are among the world's least developed. In fact, assets in most low-income African countries are smaller than those held by a single medium-sized bank in an industrial country. The absence of deep, efficient financial markets seriously challenges policy making, hinders poverty alleviation, and constrains growth. This book argues that building efficient and sound financial sectors in SSA countries will improve Africa's economic prospects. Based on a review of the key features of financial systems, it discusses the main obstacles and challenges that financial structures pose for SSA economies and recommends steps that could address major shortcomings in implementing the reform agenda.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.