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The Middle East is experiencing the world’s most prominent youth bulge. Yet many MENA economies’ institutional designs, both formal and informal, favour the power of business elites, systematically discriminating against young people joining the workforce or opening businesses, and thus limiting their ability to contribute to innovation. Large youth populations can be a boon or a curse: nurtured and integrated, they can jumpstart stratospheric growth; but if alienated and confined, they can drain a society politically and economically. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are no exception to this perilous dilemma. This book explores the problem through a new concept, ‘creative insecurity’: a state’s subjection to an institutional ecosystem that is suppressing opportunities for innovation—to the extent that it is causing economic and political vulnerabilities, which in turn threaten national security. Creative insecurity threatens the longevity of many states today. In this original, incisive study, Dania Thafer argues that GCC member-states should make it a national security imperative to cash in their demographic dividend, by averting the deleterious effects of ill-disposed elite politics. Investing in an innovation ecosystem that harnesses the talent of the youth majority will be crucial for the GCC’s successful transition to the post-oil era.
How are authority and influence accumulated and wielded across the six Gulf states? Mixing theoretical and empirical insights, and utilising both historical and contemporary examples, this book offers a comparative analysis of military, political, economic and religious power in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as of the power of narrative. While many volumes examine each of these states individually, Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States assesses the Arabian Peninsula as a whole, filling a significant gap in the literature. It surveys the myriad factors which have influenced the emergence of these states, societies and political economies, which have become increasingly assertive actors in today's global order. Exploring domestic, regional and transnational pressures, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen sheds light on the varying concepts of power and authority, the different forms they take, the ways they are projected, and the practical constraints on their exercise. From whom does power derive? Is it something different from influence and ambition? Is decision-making top-down or bottom-up, or a mixture of both? From bureaucrats to scholars, and from royals to opposition figures, Coates Ulrichsen uncovers the power relations shaping the Gulf today.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
For a variety of contributing factors, the defense and security status of the Gulf region is facing a dilemma between the maintenance of regional security and the preservation of domestic security interests. This dilemma stems from the perceived decline of U.S. influence and lingering consequences of the Arab Spring movements. Divisions and armed conflicts, both within the Gulf itself and the surrounding region are a result of this changing political order and the ascension of many of the Gulf states on the international scene. These evolving dynamics will set in motion various defense and security consequences for the Gulf and the greater Middle East which are addressed in this edited volume. With contributions from practitioners as well as academics, this book will be a vital resource for both researchers and policymakers.
The Gulf is in the first rank of potential global flashpoints. It is the largest market for weapons imports in the world, and is considered to be a vital interest of all the great powers. Iran is viewed as an expansionist threat by the Arab states of the Gulf, who have built considerable militaries in a historically short timeframe. Security in the Gulf, however, is a complicated matter. The Arab states of the Gulf have pursued different defense policies as well as different ways of building up their forces. In some instances, the establishment of a strong military is not just a way to ensure security, but also a way to build a national identity. In other cases, great powers (such as the United States) seek to promote cooperation between the Arab Gulf militaries as an interim step to promote political reform and integration. The essays in this volume examine a broad range of issues in Gulf security. Security is a complex and subjective matter--the various perspectives in this volume combine to form a holistic view of a challenging and evolving topic.
This edition of Global Trends revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.
In 2017, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, launching an economic blockade by land, air and sea. The self-proclaimed 'Anti-Terror Quartet' offered maximalist demands: thirteen 'conditions' recalling Austria-Hungary's 1914 ultimatum to Serbia. They may even have intended military action. Well into its second year, the standoff in the Gulf has no realistic end in sight. With the Bahraini and Emirati criminalisation of expressing support for Qatar, and the Saudi labelling of detainees as 'traitors' for their alleged Qatari links, bitterness has been stoked between deeply interconnected peoples. The adviser to the Saudi crown prince advocating a moat to physically separate Qatar from the Arabian Peninsula illustrates the ongoing intensity--and irrationality--of the crisis. Most reporting and analysis of these developments has focused on questions of regional geopolitics, and framed the standoff in terms of its impact on (largely) Western interests. Lost in this thicket of commentary is consideration of how the Qatari leadership and population have responded to the blockade. As the 2022 FIFA World Cup draws closer, the ongoing Qatar crisis becomes increasingly important to understand. Ulrichsen offers an authoritative study of this international standoff, from both sides.
When mass protests erupted in Algeria in 2019, on a scale unseen anywhere in the region since the Arab Spring, the outside world was taken by surprise. Algeria had been largely unaffected by the turmoil that engulfed its neighbours in 2011, and it was widely assumed that the population was too traumatised and cowed by the country’s bloody civil war to take to the streets demanding change. Michael J. Willis offers an explanation of this unexpected development known as the HirakMovement, examining the political and social changes that have occurred in Algeria since the ‘dark decade’ of the 1990s. He examines how the bitter civil conflict was brought to an end, and how a fresh political order was established following the 1999 election of a dynamic new leader, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Initially underwritten by revenue from Algeria’s substantial hydrocarbons resources, this new order came to be undermined by falling oil prices, an ailing president, and a population determined to have its voice heard by an increasingly corrupt, out-of-touch and opaque national leadership. Exactly twenty years passed before Bouteflika’s presidency was brought to an end by the Hirak protests—this book is an authoritative account of them.