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Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of the popular textbook includes updated chapters on theory and methods and contains a new chapter discussing the state-contingent approach to the analysis of production and the use of copulas to better model stochastic dependency. Aiming to introduce agricultural decision making, probability and risk preference, this book is an indispensable guide for students and researchers of agriculture and agribusiness management.
As with earlier editions, the aim of this book is to support better agricultural decision making by explaining what can be done nowadays in risk analysis and risk management. As before, the intended readership includes senior undergraduate or graduate students of agricultural and rural resource management, agricultural research workers, people involved in advising farmers, such as extension workers, financial advisers and veterinarians, some farmers themselves, and policy makers. Methods of risk analysis and management are evolving rapidly. This third edition includes some recent advances in both theory and methods of analysis. New material includes sections on state-contingent versus stochastic production functions and an introduction to the use of copulas for modelling stochastic dependency. Improvements in available software continue to expand the scope to better represent and model real-world risky choices, and this edition has updated its advice concerning use of contemporary software. The book has 13 chapters.
This book examines the implications of risk management for policy in agriculture. Opening with a chapter on risk management principles and guidelines for policy design in agriculture, the book goes on to look at quantitative analysis of risk and then at policy in various countries.
Over the last three decades drought episodes have resulted in severe social problems in Mediterranean countries, receiving broad attention from the international scientific and policy communities. The experiences in the development and implementation of drought management plans highlight the success and challenges of coping with drought for societies with different vulnerabilities and emphasize risk-based drought management as a critical approach to mitigate the impacts associated to drought-induced water shortages. Based on these experiences and the current methods for evaluating risk, the book synthesises guidelines for drought management that link science and policy and that can be applied to other regions. The book comprises a collection of papers divided into four sections that appeal to a broad audience. First, the social and hydrological context of Mediterranean countries is presented, discussing the interactions that have resulted in the complex institutional framework, and highlighting the importance of stakeholder involvement and awareness building for successful drought management. This section emphasises the role of organizations, institutions, and civil stakeholders involved in drought preparedness and mitigation and/or on water management for designing effective risk based strategies that mitigate the effects of drought in agriculture and water supply systems. Second, the book presents an academic approach to risk evaluation, including characterization of drought episodes, development of indicators of risk in hydrological and agricultural systems, and analysis of the role of economic instruments and groundwater for risk mitigation. This section finalises with the description of an integrated method for evaluating social vulnerability based on indicators that include the capacity to anticipate, cope, and respond to drought. The third section includes a collection of case studies that include the description of effective measures taken in the past. These case studies provide the context for developing demand driven guidelines that may be applied to other regions. The authors of these chapters can be viewed as stakeholders in drought management, since they represent a broad range of sectors and institutions from Mediterranean European and North African countries. The topics addressed have implications for the international policy community interested in disaster mitigation, agricultural policy, and development. Finally a synthesis of the management actions is presented in four chapters. Monitoring and preparedness planning is the essential first step for moving from disaster to risk management in response to drought. The management actions related to agriculture and water supply systems are presented in two different chapters but with a common conceptual framework based on the use of drought indicators for evaluating the levels of drought risk (pre-alert, alert, and emergency), that allow establishing linkages between science and policy. The final chapter discuses the lessons learned and application to other regions.
This guide is intended to help extension workers better understand the concept of risk, the situation where risk occurs and management strategies that can be used to reduce, or at least soften, its effect. It is hoped that the guide will be useful in assisting extension workers to provide farmers with advice on the kind of risk management strategies that they can employ to deal with risk in their day-to-day operations. In this way extension workers can help farmers recognize and understand the risks that they are likely to face and assist them in making better farm management decisions that reduce the negative effect of the risks encountered in farming.
Here is the first systematic handbook treatment of quantitative modeling natural resource problems, their allocated efficient use, and societal and economic impact. Andrés Weintraub is the very top person in Natural Resource research. He has selected co-editors who are at the top of the sub-fields in natural resources: agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and mining. The book covers these areas with contributions from researchers on, among others, modeling natural research problems, quantifying data, and developing algorithms.
Natural hazard induced disasters (NHID), such as floods, droughts, severe storms, and animal pests and diseases have significant, widespread and long lasting impacts on agricultural sectors around the world. With climate change set to amplify many of these impacts, a “business as usual” approach to disaster risk management in agriculture cannot continue if we are to meet the challenges of agricultural productivity and sustainability growth, and sustainable development. Drawing from seven case studies – Chile, Italy, Japan, Namibia, New Zealand, Turkey and the United States – this joint OECD?FAO report argues for a new approach to building resilience to NHID in agriculture. It explores the policy measures, governance arrangements, on?farm strategies and other initiatives that countries are using to increase agricultural resilience to NHID, highlighting emerging good practices. It offers concrete recommendations on what more needs to be done to shift from coping with the impacts of disasters, to an ex ante approach that focuses on preventing and mitigating the impacts of disasters, helping the sector be better prepared to respond to disasters, and to adapt and transform in order to be better positioned for future disasters.
The report aims to provide a conceptual framework to address food security under conditions of water scarcity in agriculture. It has been prepared by a team of FAO staff and consultants in the framework of the project "Coping with water scarcity - the role of agriculture", and has been discussed at an Expert Consultation meeting organized in FAO, Rome, during the period 14-16 December 2009 on the same subject. It was subsequently edited and revised, taking account of discussions in the Expert Consultation and materials presented to the meeting. The purpose of the Expert Consultation was to assist FAO to better design its water scarcity programme. In particular, the experts were requested to provide recommendations on the range of technical and policy options and associated principles that FAO should promote as part of an agricultural response to water scarcity in member countries. The document offers views on the conceptual framework on which FAO's water scarcity programme should be based, proposes a set of definitions associated with the concept of water scarcity, and indicates the main principles on which FAO should base its action in support to its member countries. At the meeting, experts were requested to review the draft document and provide feedback and recommendations for its finalization. Issues that were addressed in discussions included: 3⁄4 Water scarcity: agreement on key definitions. 3⁄4 The conceptualisation of water scarcity in ways that are meaningful for policy development and decision-making. 3⁄4 The quantification of water scarcity. . 3⁄4 Policy and technical response options available to ensure food security in conditions of water scarcity. . 3⁄4 Criteria and principles that should be used to establish priorities for action in response to water scarcity in agriculture and ensure effective and efficient water scarcity coping strategies.
These OECD workshop proceedings examine the various risk strategies used by farm households, in particular those attracting renewed interest such as diversification of income sources, vertical co-ordination, hedging on futures markets, insurance coverage and public safety-nets.
Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.