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In this testament to the distinguished career of H.S. Houthakker a number of Professor Houthakker's friends, former colleagues and former students offer essays which build upon and extend his many contributions to economics in aggregation, consumption, growth and trade. Among the many distinguished contributors are Paul Samuelson, Werner Hildenbrand, John Muellbauer and Lester Telser. The book also includes four previously unpublished papers and notes by its distinguished dedicatee.
The first number of our earlier series, A Programme for Growth, carried a notice of forthcoming papers. Five were announced but eventually only four were published. The fifth, which was intended to deal with consumption functions, never appeared; now it takes its place as number one in the new series. It is not that ten years ago we had nothing to say on the subject of consumers' behaviour. The crude estimation method that I had used in my original (1954) paper on the linear expenditure system gave interesting and in many respects satisfactory results, some of which were published outside our series, for instance in Stone, Brown and ). With this method the parameter estimates changed Rowe ( 1964 very little after the first few iterations. Nevertheless they did change, and with the computing resources then at our disposal we failed to reach convergence. It was mainly for this reason that we decided to wait.
This book, originally published in 1993, develops for the US automobile industry a demand-supply model which incorporates both wholesale and retail sectors and which allows strategic pricing behaviour of US and Japanese producers to be internally determined and its effects on market behaviour and national welfare analyzed. It develops the framework for and presents the results of an econometric simulation of the transaction and wholesale prices, quantities demanded and produced, manufacturer's costs and factor demands. The impact of the Voluntary Export Restraint of 1981 on profits and consumer welfare are generated from the simulation results.
Since the first statement of the aims and methods of the Cambridge Growth Project, which appeared in 1962 as the first number of our former series A Programme for Growth, we have produced a volume on the state ofthe model and on projections derived from it at roughly five year intervals: Exploring 1970 (1965), Exploring 1972 (1970) and now the present book. A comparison of these publications shows the directions in which we have developed our model. First, we have been able to model more parts of the economy and to model them better; and, second, by adopting a targets-and-instruments approach, we have been able to tackle questions of policy. As a consequence of the first of these improvements, the model has become more closely knit and variables which were previously exogenous have become endogenous; and, as a consequence of the second, the model has become less rigid and can be used to suggest policies for correcting some ofthe undesir able features that emerge from the projections.