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This study introduces the concept of a conflict hot spot to the broader empirical literature on conflict processes. It identifies common causes and consequences of conflict hot spots across many regions globally, offering a theoretical and empirical contribution to the emerging literature on the spatiality of conflict processes.
Militarized conflicts between states appear to occur repeatedly in the same geographic regions. Both World Wars and a series of interstate disputes in the post-Cold War system had their origins in the Balkans region of Eastern Europe. This study introduces the concept of a conflict hot spot to the broader empirical literature on conflict processes. It devotes considerable time to identifying the common causes and consequences of conflict hot spots across many regions globally, offering a theoretical and empirical contribution to the emerging literature on the spatiality of conflict processes. Rather than merely controlling for spatial dependence between episodes of conflict, the book incorporates this spatial dependence within a series of models of conflict behaviours and is, therefore, able to directly model the process of conflict diffusion.
The Armed Conflict Survey is the annual review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of all active conflicts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. It offers in-depth analysis of the drivers, dynamics and outlook of 34 current armed conflicts along with detailed information on conflict parties and more than 60 full-colour maps and infographics. The Armed Conflict Survey is an essential resource for those involved in security, foreign and humanitarian policymaking, and an indispensable handbook for anyone conducting serious analysis of armed conflict. Key features · Essays on global trends in armed conflict, with a focus on the changing nature of third-party intervention, the long aftermath of armed conflicts, and economic migration and forced displacement in a COVID-19 world. · Overviews of key events and political and military developments from January 2020–February 2021 for each conflict. · Strategic analysis of national and regional drivers and conflict outlooks. · Regional analyses with unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across regions and globally. · Expanded information on conflict parties. · The Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator (ACGRI), an IISS proprietary indicator that combines measures of incidence and human impact with geopolitical impact to assess the global salience of armed conflicts. · Analysis of the humanitarian, social and economic impact of conflicts. · Conflict-specific trends, strategic implications and prospects for peace. · More than 60 full-colour maps, tables and infographics highlighting key conflict developments and data. · Key statistics on violent events, fatalities, military power, geopolitical salience, refugees and internally displaced persons. · The 2021 Chart of Armed Conflict, presenting information on conflict start dates, typologies and relevant refugee flows, as well as providing a visual overview of each conflict’s geopolitical relevance, looking at 2020 UN Security Council resolutions, multilateral missions and the involvement of third-party countries.
The book offers unique access to theoretical approaches and practical examples of international social work in the context of war and conflicts. The reader gains knowledge about the competences and role of social work, which contributes to mitigating the effects of war and conflict. The book raises the question of how to connect international social work with local approaches and offers suggestions for a development of social work with respect to exchanging knowledge and experiences between the West and the East, the Global North and the Global South. It furthermore discusses the role of social work in reducing the problem of gender-based violence and in the methods of peacebuilding processes in post-war and post-conflict societies.
An authoritative, incisive explanation of the causes and current status of hostilities around the world. The world today rests on increasingly unstable fault lines. From the conflict in Ukraine or fresh upheavals in the Middle East to the threats posed to humanity by a global pandemic, climate change, and natural disasters, the world's danger zones once again draw their battle lines across our hyper-connected, yet fragmented, globe. In this revised and updated fourth edition, join veteran Economist journalist John Andrews as he analyzes the old enmities and looming collisions that underlie conflict in the twenty-first century. Region by region, discover the causes, contexts, participants, and likely outcomes of every globally significant struggle now underway. From drug cartels to cyber war, this is the indispensable guide for anyone who wants to understand our perilous world.
You always know when you are in a Hot Spot. You feel energized and vibrantly alive. Your brain is buzzing with ideas, and the people around you share your joy and excitement. Things you've always known become clearer, adding value becomes more possible. Ideas and insights from others miraculously combine with your own to create new thinking and innovation. When Hot Spots arise in and between companies, they provide energy for exploiting and applying knowledge that is already known and genuinely exploring what was previously unknown. Hot Spots are marvelous creators of value for organizations and wonderful, life-enhancing phenomena for each of us. Lynda Gratton has spent more than ten years investigating Hot Spots--discovering how they emerge and how organizations can create environments where they will proliferate and thrive. She has studied dozens of companies and talked to hundreds of employees, managers, and executives in the US, Europe, and Asia. She has asked the important questions: Why and when do Hot Spots emerge? What is it about certain groups of people that support the emergence of Hot Spots? What role do leaders play? She's discovered a host of elements that together contribute to the emergence of Hot Spots--creating energy and excitement, and supporting and channeling that energy into productive outcomes. In this groundbreaking book, Gratton describes four crucial qualities that an organizational culture must have to support the emergence of Hot Spots, looks at what leaders can do to encourage them, and offers activities and tools you can use in your own company to increase the probability of them arising. In these days when traditional organizational boundaries are becoming barriers to progress, Gratton offers advice and guidance that you can use right now to increase the probability of Hot Spots emerging in your organization.
This book should be useful to anyone interested in identifying the causes of civil conflict and doing something to end it. It even suggests a pathway for the lay reader. Civil conflict is a persistent source of misery to humankind. Its study, however, lacks a comprehensive theory of its causes. Nevertheless, the question of cooperation or conflict is at the heart of political economy. This book introduces Machine Learning to explore whether there even is a unified theory of conflict, and if there is, whether it is a ‘good’ one. A good theory is one that not only identifies the causes of conflict, but also identifies those causes that predict conflict. Machine learning algorithms use out of sample techniques to choose between competing hypotheses about the sources of conflict according to their predictive accuracy. This theoretically agnostic ‘picking’ has the added benefit of offering some protection against many of the problems noted in the current literature; the tangled causality between conflict and its correlates, the relative rarity of civil conflict at a global level, missing data, and spectacular statistical assumptions. This book argues that the search for a unified theory of conflict must begin among these more predictive sources of civil conflict. In fact, in the book, there is a clear sense that game theoretic rational choice models of bargaining/commitment failure predict conflict better than any other approach. In addition, the algorithms highlight the fact that conflict is path dependent - it tends to continue once started. This is intuitive in many ways but is roundly ignored as a matter of science. It should not. Further, those causes of conflict that best predict conflict can be used as policy levers to end or prevent conflict. This book should therefore be of interest to military and civil leaders engaged in ending civil conflict. Last, though not least, the book highlights how the sources of conflict affect conflict. This additional insight may allow the crafting of policies that match a country’s specific circumstance.
This volume compiles lessons learned by field researchers, many of whom have faced demanding situations characterized by violence, distrust and social fragmentation.