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Patterns in the Dark is that rare book that offers an entirely new perspective on an issue of ongoing concern to investors: the unpredictability of financial markets. In this groundbreaking work, leading investment strategist and authority on chaos theory, Edgar Peters makes accessible ways of understanding market behavior that-until now-were known only to specialists. Patterns in the Dark draws on a broad range of human knowledge and experience to clarify the behavior of a system that now operates on a global, 24-hour, and thoroughly interconnected basis. Peters illuminates the complex operation of the marketplace by including keen observations drawn from science, mathematics, and artistic creation as well as economics. His models include the social visions of the Austrian economists, Darwinian ideas of evolution, the laws of physics, and the creative risks of the artist. His meditations on financial markets weigh the effects of limitations vs. rules, risks vs. uncertainty, and order vs. chaos. As a guide to a world marketplace that has become increasingly complex and uncertain, Patterns in the Dark offers the investor a rich source of insight, illumination, and wisdom.
Tools and methods from complex systems science can have a considerable impact on the way in which the quantitative assessment of economic and financial issues is approached, as discussed in this thesis. First it is shown that the self-organization of financial markets is a crucial factor in the understanding of their dynamics. In fact, using an agent-based approach, it is argued that financial markets’ stylized facts appear only in the self-organized state. Secondly, the thesis points out the potential of so-called big data science for financial market modeling, investigating how web-driven data can yield a picture of market activities: it has been found that web query volumes anticipate trade volumes. As a third achievement, the metrics developed here for country competitiveness and product complexity is groundbreaking in comparison to mainstream theories of economic growth and technological development. A key element in assessing the intangible variables determining the success of countries in the present globalized economy is represented by the diversification of the productive basket of countries. The comparison between the level of complexity of a country's productive system and economic indicators such as the GDP per capita discloses its hidden growth potential.
The latest developments in chaos theory - from an industry expert Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the first book to introduce and popularize chaos as it applies to finance. It has since become the classic source on the topic. This new edition is completely updated to include the latest ripples in chaos theory with new chapters that tie in today's hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, and artificial intelligence. Critical praise for Peters and the first edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets "The bible of market chaologists." - BusinessWeek "Ed Peters has written a first-class summary suitable for any investment professional or skilled investor." - Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities "It ranks among the most provocative financial books of the past few years. Reading this book will provide a generous payback for the time and mental energy expended." - Financial Analysts Journal This second edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets brings the topic completely up to date with timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of the latest wave of technology, including genetic algorithms, wavelets, and complexity theory. Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the very first book to explore and popularize chaos theory as it applies to finance. It has since become the industry standard, and is regarded as the definitive source to which analysts, investors, and traders turn for a comprehensive overview of chaos theory. Now, this invaluable reference - touted by BusinessWeek as "the bible of market chaologists" - has been updated and revised to bring you the latest developments in the field. Mainstream capital market theory is based on efficient market assumptions, even though the markets themselves exhibit characteristics that are symptomatic of nonlinear dynamic systems. As it explores - and validates - this nonlinear nature, Chaos and Order repudiates the "random walk" theory and econometrics. It shifts the focus away from the concept of efficient markets toward a more general view of the forces underlying the capital market system. Presenting new analytical techniques, as well as reexamining methods that have been in use for the past forty years, Chaos and Order offers a thorough examination of chaos theory and fractals as applied to investments and economics. This new edition includes timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of cutting-edge technologies-genetic algorithms, wavelets, complexity theory-and hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence. Beyond the history of current capital market theory, Chaos and Order covers the crucial characteristics of fractals, the analysis of fractal time series through rescaled range analysis (R/S), the specifics of fractal statistics, and the definition and analysis of chaotic systems. It offers an in-depth exploration of: * Random walks and efficient markets - the development of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and modern portfolio theory * The linear paradigm - why it has failed * Nonlinear dynamic systems - phase space, the Henon Map, Lyapunov exponents * Applying chaos and nonlinear methods - neural networks, genetic algorithms * Dynamical analysis of time series - reconstructing a phase space, the fractal dimension Tonis Vaga's Coherent Market Hypothesis - the theory of social imitation, control parameters, Vaga's implementations Plus, Chaos and Order now contains a Windows-compatible disk including data sets for running analyses described in the appendices. Written by a leading expert in the field, Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets has all the information you need for a complete, up-to-date look at chaos theory. This latest edition will undoubtedly prove to be as invaluable as the first.
A leading pioneer in the field offers practical applications of this innovative science. Peters describes complex concepts in an easy-to-follow manner for the non-mathematician. He uses fractals, rescaled range analysis and nonlinear dynamical models to explain behavior and understand price movements. These are specific tools employed by chaos scientists to map and measure physical and now, economic phenomena.
This book concerns the use of concepts from statistical physics in the description of financial systems. The authors illustrate the scaling concepts used in probability theory, critical phenomena, and fully developed turbulent fluids. These concepts are then applied to financial time series. The authors also present a stochastic model that displays several of the statistical properties observed in empirical data. Statistical physics concepts such as stochastic dynamics, short- and long-range correlations, self-similarity and scaling permit an understanding of the global behaviour of economic systems without first having to work out a detailed microscopic description of the system. Physicists will find the application of statistical physics concepts to economic systems interesting. Economists and workers in the financial world will find useful the presentation of empirical analysis methods and well-formulated theoretical tools that might help describe systems composed of a huge number of interacting subsystems.
As the global financial crisis unfolds people everywhere are seeking to understand how markets devolved to this perilous, volatile state. In this dazzling and meticulously researched work of financial history, first published in 2003, and now thoroughly revised and updated, law professor and financial expert Frank Partnoy tells the story of how "classical" Wall Street securities like stocks and bonds were quietly eclipsed by ever more "quantum" products like derivatives. He documents how, starting in the mid-1980s, each new level of financial risk and complexity obscured the sickness of corporate America, and how Wall Street's evolving paradigm moved farther and farther beyond the understanding -- and regulation -- of ordinary investors and government overseers, leading inevitably to disaster.
Risk management is one of the biggest issues facing the financial markets today. This volume outlines the major issues for risk management and focuses on operational risk as a key activity in managing risk on an enterprise-wide basis.
The first full analysis of the latest advances in managing credit risk. "Against a backdrop of radical industry evolution, the authors of Managing Credit Risk: The Next Great Financial Challenge provide a concise and practical overview of these dramatic market and technical developments in a book which is destined to become a standard reference in the field." -Thomas C. Wilson, Partner, McKinsey & Company, Inc. "Managing Credit Risk is an outstanding intellectual achievement. The authors have provided investors a comprehensive view of the state of credit analysis at the end of the millennium." -Martin S. Fridson, Financial Analysts Journal. "This book provides a comprehensive review of credit risk management that should be compulsory reading for not only those who are responsible for such risk but also for financial analysts and investors. An important addition to a significant but neglected subject." -B.J. Ranson, Senior Vice-President, Portfolio Management, Bank of Montreal. The phenomenal growth of the credit markets has spawned a powerful array of new instruments for managing credit risk, but until now there has been no single source of information and commentary on them. In Managing Credit Risk, three highly regarded professionals in the field have-for the first time-gathered state-of-the-art information on the tools, techniques, and vehicles available today for managing credit risk. Throughout the book they emphasize the actual practice of managing credit risk, and draw on the experience of leading experts who have successfully implemented credit risk solutions. Starting with a lucid analysis of recent sweeping changes in the U.S. and global financial markets, this comprehensive resource documents the credit explosion and its remarkable opportunities-as well as its potentially devastating dangers. Analyzing the problems that have occurred during its growth period-S&L failures, business failures, bond and loan defaults, derivatives debacles-and the solutions that have enabled the credit market to continue expanding, Managing Credit Risk examines the major players and institutional settings for credit risk, including banks, insurance companies, pension funds, exchanges, clearinghouses, and rating agencies. By carefully delineating the different perspectives of each of these groups with respect to credit risk, this unique resource offers a comprehensive guide to the rapidly changing marketplace for credit products. Managing Credit Risk describes all the major credit risk management tools with regard to their strengths and weaknesses, their fitness to specific financial situations, and their effectiveness. The instruments covered in each of these detailed sections include: credit risk models based on accounting data and market values; models based on stock price; consumer finance models; models for small business; models for real estate, emerging market corporations, and financial institutions; country risk models; and more. There is an important analysis of default results on corporate bonds and loans, and credit rating migration. In all cases, the authors emphasize that success will go to those firms that employ the right tools and create the right kind of risk culture within their organizations. A strong concluding chapter integrates emerging trends in the financial markets with the new methods in the context of the overall credit environment. Concise, authoritative, and lucidly written, Managing Credit Risk is essential reading for bankers, regulators, and financial market professionals who face the great new challenges-and promising rewards-of credit risk management.
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.