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Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
In the transformation of agri-food systems in developing countries, we usually see rapid changes in the livestock sector. However, good data for clearly understanding this transformation are often lacking, especially so in Africa. Relying on a combination of diverse large-scale datasets and methods, we analyze transformation patterns in the dairy value chain supplying Addis Ababa, the capital and biggest city of Ethiopia. Over the last decade, we note a rapid increase in expenditures on dairy products by urban consumers, especially among the better-off. Relatedly, the number of dairy processing firms in Ethiopia tripled over the same period, supplying a significant part of these dairy products, especially pasteurized milk, to the city’s residents. The number of dairy traders increased rapidly as well, with competition between them becoming more intense over time. Upstream at the production level, we find improved access to livestock services, higher adoption of cross-bred cows, a shift from grazing to commercial feeds, an increase in milk yields, expanding liquid milk markets, a sizable urban farm sector supplying almost one-third of all liquid milk consumed in the city, and an upscaling process with larger commercial dairy farms becoming more prevalent. However, average milk yields are still low and not all dairy farmers are included in this transformation process. Small farms with dairy animals as well as those in more remote areas benefit less from access to services and adopt less these modern practices. For these more disadvantaged farmers, stagnation in milk yields and even declines – depending on the data source used – are observed.
The literature on commercial transformation of smallholders makes little distinction between market orientation (production decision based on market signals) and market participation (sale of output). This paper analyzes the determinants of market orientation and market participation in Ethiopia separately and examines if market orientation translates into market participation. Empirical results show that market orientation translates strongly into market participation. The key implication of this study is that policy, technological, organizational and institutional interventions aimed at promoting commercial transformation of subsistence agriculture should follow two-pronged approach: improving market orientation of smallholders at production level, and facilitating market entry and participation of households in output and input markets. Focusing on either may not be as effective in achieving the transformation.
In many developing countries in which staple foods dominate the composition of diets, higher consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) is associated with significant nutritional benefits. Given the importance of prices for consumption decisions in these settings, we analyze ASF price patterns in the last decade (2007-2016), relying on a large-scale price dataset collected in 116 urban retail markets in Ethiopia. We document important seasonal and spatial patterns and we find, worryingly, that real prices of ASF have been increasing in the last decade by between 32 to 36 percent for three major ASF – milk, eggs, and meat. Similar price increases are noted in rural and urban areas and for tradable and non-tradable ASFs. This price trend is in contrast with staple cereals for which real prices stayed at similar levels over the last decade. As we estimate that a price increase of this magnitude would reduce consumption of ASF by approximately 25 percent, holding other things constant, it seems that more investments and attention to the production of ASF and the livestock sector are needed to reduce ASF prices and increase their consumption in Ethiopia.
With the current Second Growth and Transformation Plan (2015-2020), the Government of Ethiopia expects the agro-industrial sector to play key role in economic growth of the Country. Accordingly, the creation of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks has been identified as one of the key mechanisms for accelerating the development of the sector and the structural transformation of agriculture. Agro-industrial parks will play a significant role in transitioning Ethiopia from an agricultural-led into an industrial-led economy. In view of that, the development of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks has been prioritized in Ethiopia’s national development strategy and four Agro-Industrial Growth Corridors have been selected for piloting the establishment of four Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks. The initiative aims at driving the structural transformation of the Ethiopian economy while reducing rural poverty and creating a better environment for increased investments in agro-processing and allied sectors. Since 1981, FAO has been a strong partner of the Government of Ethiopia towards the achievement of national food security and economic growth goals. FAO is working closely with the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources to empower value chain actors and to promote inclusive, efficient and sustainable agricultural value chains. The present document is the first one of a series of detailed analyses of prioritized commodities, which will lead to inclusive, sustainable and stronger agricultural value chains in the Agro-Commodities Procurement Zone of the pilot Integrated Agro-Industrial Park in Central-Eastern Oromia.