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This paper investigates to what extent low-income developing countries (LIDCs) characterized as frontier markets (FMs) have begun to be subject to capital flows dynamics typically associated with emerging markets (EMs). Using a sample of developing countries covering the period 2000–14, we show that: (i) average annual portfolio flows to FMs as a share of GDP outstripped those to EMs by about 0.6 percentage points of GDP; (ii) during years of heightened stress in global financial markets, portfolio flows to FMs dried up like those to EMs; and that (iii) FMs have become more integrated into international financial markets. Our findings confirm that, in terms of portfolio flows, FMs have become more similar to EMs than to the rest of LIDCs and are therefore more vulnerable to swings in global financial markets conditions. Accordingly, it is important to have in place frameworks to strengthen FMs’ resilience to adverse capital flows shocks.
This paper investigates to what extent low-income developing countries (LIDCs) characterized as frontier markets (FMs) have begun to be subject to capital flows dynamics typically associated with emerging markets (EMs). Using a sample of developing countries covering the period 2000–14, we show that: (i) average annual portfolio flows to FMs as a share of GDP outstripped those to EMs by about 0.6 percentage points of GDP; (ii) during years of heightened stress in global financial markets, portfolio flows to FMs dried up like those to EMs; and that (iii) FMs have become more integrated into international financial markets. Our findings confirm that, in terms of portfolio flows, FMs have become more similar to EMs than to the rest of LIDCs and are therefore more vulnerable to swings in global financial markets conditions. Accordingly, it is important to have in place frameworks to strengthen FMs’ resilience to adverse capital flows shocks.
Where are the next decade's greatest investment opportunities? Veteran investor Marko Dimitrijevic argues that they can be found in frontier markets, which account for seventy-one of the world's seventy-five fastest-growing economies and 19 percent of the world's GDP. Yet many investors ignore them. Fueled by new access to technology and information, frontier markets are emerging even faster than their predecessors, making them an essential component of a globally diversified portfolio. In Frontier Investor, Dimitrijevic shows through colorful case studies, compelling charts, and fascinating travel anecdotes that it is not only possible but prudent to invest in these unfamiliar and undervalued options. Dimitrijevic explains how frontier markets such as Nigeria, Panama, and Bangladesh are poised to follow the similar paths of Chinese, Indian, and Russian markets, which were considered exotic two decades ago. He details a strategy for how and where to invest, directly or indirectly, to profit from frontier growth. Dimitrijevic covers the risks, political and otherwise, of these markets, the megatrends that promise exciting investment opportunities in the coming years, and the prospects for countries beyond the frontier, including Myanmar, Cuba, and even Iran. Rich with experience and insight, Frontier Investor opens up a whole new world—and worldview—to investors.
The new playbook for innovation and startup success is emerging from beyond Silicon Valley--at the "frontier." Startups have changed the world. In the United States, many startups, such as Tesla, Apple, and Amazon, have become household names. The economic value of startups has doubled since 1992 and is projected to double again in the next fifteen years. For decades, the hot center of this phenomenon has been Silicon Valley. This is changing fast. Thanks to technology, startups are now taking root everywhere, from Delhi to Detroit to Nairobi to Sao Paulo. Yet despite this globalization of startup activity, our knowledge of how to build successful startups is still drawn primarily from Silicon Valley. As venture capitalist Alexandre Lazarow shows in this insightful and instructive book, this Silicon Valley "gospel" is due for a refresh--and it comes from what he calls the "frontier," the growing constellation of startup ecosystems, outside of the Valley and other major economic centers, that now stretches across the globe. The frontier is a truly different world where startups often must cope with political or economic instability and lack of infrastructure, and where there might be little or no access to angel investors, venture capitalists, or experienced employee pools. Under such conditions, entrepreneurs must be creators who build industries rather than disruptors who change them because there are few existing businesses to disrupt. The companies they create must be global from birth because local markets are too small. They focus on resiliency and sustainability rather than unicorn-style growth at any cost. With rich and wide-ranging stories of frontier innovators from around the world, Out-Innovate is the new playbook for innovation--wherever it has the potential to happen.
Frontier markets are producing excellent returns for investors. This guide will help you discover the best approaches to investing in these up-and-coming global markets, maximizing returns, and diversifying your portfolio.
Handbook of Frontier Markets: Evidence from Asia and International Comparative Studies provides novel insights from academic perspectives about the behavior of investors and prices in several frontier markets. It explores finance issues usually reserved for developed and emerging markets in order to gauge whether these issues are relevant and how they manifest themselves in frontier markets. Frontier markets have now become a popular investment class among institutional investors internationally, with major financial services providers establishing index-benchmarks for this market-category. The anticipation for frontier markets is optimistic uncertainty, and many people believe that, given their growth rates, these markets will be economic success stories. Irrespective of their degrees of success, The Handbook of Frontier Markets can help ensure that the increasing international investment diverted to them will aid in their greater integration within the global financial system. - Presents topics in the contexts of frontier markets and uses tests based on established methodologies from finance research - Features contributing authors who are established university academics - Emphasizes financial institutions and applications of financial risk models - Explores finance issues usually reserved for developed and emerging markets in order to gauge whether these issues are relevant and how they manifest themselves in frontier markets
In 1945, Vannevar Bush, founder of Raytheon and one-time engineering dean at MIT, delivered a report to the president of the United States that argued for the importance of public support for science, and the importance of science for the future of the nation. The report, Science: The Endless Frontier, set America on a path toward strong and well-funded institutions of science, creating an intellectual architecture that still defines scientific endeavor today. In The Changing Frontier, Adam B. Jaffe and Benjamin Jones bring together a group of prominent scholars to consider the changes in science and innovation in the ensuing decades. The contributors take on such topics as changes in the organization of scientific research, the geography of innovation, modes of entrepreneurship, and the structure of research institutions and linkages between science and innovation. An important analysis of where science stands today, The Changing Frontier will be invaluable to practitioners and policy makers alike.
Over the past two decades, many low-income developing countries have substantially increased openness towards external financing and have received large capital inflows. Using bank-level micro data, this paper finds that capital inflows have been associated with financial deepening through increases in bank loans, deposits, and wholesale funding. Domestic banks increase loans more than foreign banks. There are only modest signs of a build-up in financial vulnerabilities. Causality is examined through an instrumental variable approach and an augmented inverse-probability weighting estimator. These approaches indicate only limited evidence for global push effects, pointing towards the importance of domestic pull factors.
The only comprehensive guide to reaping big returns investing in the hottest new growth markets This book makes a compelling case that, just as today's well-rounded portfolio includes emerging market funds, tomorrow's well-rounded portfolio will include frontier market funds. More importantly, it alerts you to the vast opportunities and potential pitfalls of investing in frontier markets while providing expert advice and guidance on how to research and invest in the most promising frontier growth markets. Widely considered to be the next emerging markets, frontier markets, such as those of certain sub-Saharan African, Eastern European, Asian, and Central and South American countries, are showing strong signs of reaching economic critical mass. If you are an investor on the lookout for authoritative, actionable information on the next big investment opportunity, this book is for you. Provides sector-by-sector analyses that let you assess opportunities and risks in each frontier market Provides strategies and tools for determining the most efficient methods for executing, monitoring, and exiting investments Guides you through the wide diversity within frontier markets, showing how to differentiate countries on the basis of economic development and wealth distribution and other factors
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.