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This book provides quantitative evidence on the issues in fiscal and monetary policies in Mongolia and presents necessary policy recommendations for policymakers and academic circles. Mongolia belongs to a natural resource-based, transition economy and thus has faced the risk of the so-called resource curse—including the “Dutch Disease” and immaturity in market-based systems, particularly in financial markets. Consequently, reformations of resource allocation and policy governance in fiscal and monetary fields have been required. So far, however, there have been only a very limited number of quantitative studies in the Mongolian economy among the vast literature of Asian studies. This book applies scientific approaches to address fiscal and monetary issues, such as data-oriented and econometric methods (a structural vector auto-regression model, a spatial econometric model, and panel estimation with fixed effects, among others). In this manner, the book enriches empirical evidence in academic literature and also contributes to evidence-based policymaking. All the authors are young leaders of government officials in the Ministry of Finance, Financial Regulatory Commission, and National Statistics Office in Mongolia, who have been trained in academic research methodologies at Saitama University, Japan, on JICA-JDS scholarships. Thus, academic researchers and policymakers will be prominent members of the target audience for this work.
Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.
This publication examines Mongolia’s recent economic development and outlines reforms that would help the country take advantage of its many opportunities. Mongolia is rich in natural resources and, although landlocked, is well-placed to boost trade with its two giant neighbors. The country needs to diversify its economy beyond mining, enhance economic stability, and increase employment. To maximize Mongolia’s potential the government can improve macroeconomic management, enhance the skill base, and provide hard and soft infrastructure to promote trade and efficient logistics. Governance and institutional reforms are also crucial. The government will need to continue to drive reforms so that they are well implemented and deliver the intended change.
This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
This publication presents an empirical assessment of Mongolia’s system of decentralized governance and the extent to which it translates into the actual and practical working environment for subnational and local governments. It focuses on the roles of subnational and local governments in providing public services and promoting local economic development.
With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.