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This paper recounts Chile’s experience with capital account policies since the 1990s. We present how two external shocks were confronted under very different macroeconomic and capital account frameworks. We show that during the 1997-98 Asian-LTCM-Russia crisis, a closed capital account and relatively rigid exchange rate severely constrained the monetary policy response to the shock, aggravating the fall in domestic demand. During the 2008-09 crisis, a full-fledged inflation targeting framework allowed the authorities to implement a significant countercyclical response. We argue that domestic stability considerations lay behind the policy regime switch toward capital account liberalization from 1999 onwards.
"Writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account liberalization find few, if any, robust effects of liberalization on real variables. In contrast to the prevailing wisdom, I argue that the textbook theory of liberalization holds up quite well to a critical reading of this literature. The lion's share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables tell us nothing about the empirical validity of the theory, because they do not really test it. This paper explains why it is that most studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. It also discusses what is necessary to test the theory and examines papers that have done so. Studies that actually test the theory show that liberalization has significant effects on the cost of capital, investment, and economic growth"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Capital account liberalization - orderly, properly sequence, and befitting the individual circumstances of countries- is an inevitable step for all countries wishing to realize the benefits of the globalized economy. This paper reviews the theories behind capital account liberalization and examines the dangers associated with free capital flows. The authors conclude that the dangers can be limited through a combination of sound macroeconomic and prudential policies.

Chile

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2014-07-22

Total Pages: 61


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This Selected Issues paper on Chile seeks to explain why foreign ownership of locally issued sovereign bonds is so low in Chile and its implications. The low foreign ownership seems to be the result of a combination of macroeconomic, regulatory, and technical factors. The Financial Stability Report discusses the issue, and points to the tax on capital gains, costs for custody of securities and other administrative costs, and the relatively small size of the sovereign bond market as the reasons. Our study also finds that a combination of factors contributed to the low foreign ownership, including a moderate supply of sovereign bonds shadowed by strong local demand, illiquid secondary market, tax and administrative burden, the dominance of inflation-indexed bonds, and inconvenience and potential risks associated with foreign exchange transactions. The small size of the market for nominal bonds, the lack of a liquid secondary market, the previous tax regime and existing administrative burden, and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market seem to be the main reasons.
Since the start of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, research on central banking has gained momentum due to unusual levels of central bank activism and unconventional monetary policy measures in many countries. While these policies drew significant attention to advanced economy central banks, there has been much less academic focus on central banking in emerging economies. This book extends the research on the political economy of central banking by focusing on the emerging economies in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the European periphery. Central banks are at the heart of economic policymaking, and their decisions have a significant impact on the social and economic well-being of citizens. Adopting an interdisciplinary political economy perspective, the contributions in this book explore the reciprocal relations between politics, economics, and central banks, and how the global and domestic political economy contexts influence central bank practices. The chapters employ diverse theoretical perspectives such as institutional and organizational theory, developmental state resource dependency, and gender studies, drawing on disciplines ranging from politics, international relations, public policy, management, finance, and sociology. This book will appeal to academics and students of central banking, political economy, and emerging economies, as well as professionals and policymakers engaged with central banks, monetary policy, and economic development.
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
The book covers a wide range of topics of relevance to policymakers in countries that have sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and those that receive SWF investments. Renowned experts in the field have contributed chapters. The book is organized around four themes: (1) the role and macrofinancial linkages of SWFs, (2) institutional factors, (3) investment approaches and financial markets, and (4) the postcrisis outlook. The book also discusses the challenges facing sovereign wealth funds in the coming years, from an inside perspective on countries, including Canada, Chile, China, Norway, Russia, and New Zealand. Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds will contribute to a further understanding of the nature, strategies and behavior of SWFs and the environment in which they operate, as their importance is likely to grow in the coming years.
During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.
This paper examines the distributional impact of capital account liberalization. Using panel data for 149 countries from 1970 to 2010, we find that, on average, capital account liberalization reforms increase inequality and reduce the labor share of income in the short and medium term. We also find that the level of financial development and the occurrence of crises play a key role in shaping the response of inequality to capital account liberalization reforms.