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Developing Asia is maintaining steady growth momentum. Despite recovery in the major industrialized economies falling short of expectations, the region is on track to meet its favorable forecasts as policy stabilizes investment in the People’s Republic of China and signs emerge of a long-awaited turnaround in India. Inflation is held in check across most regional economies by benign international commodity prices, subdued domestic demand, and prudent policy. Even if global liquidity tightens earlier in 2015 than anticipated, its effect on developing Asia should be modest. Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update reviews global value chains and how these cross-border production networks have enhanced income and employment in East and Southeast Asia. It considers what policy makers can do to encourage their improvement and spread to other parts of Asia and the Pacific.
Developing Asia faces considerable headwinds from slow recovery in the major industrial economies and moderating prospects for the large economies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India. Subdued demand from the industrial economies and the PRC has delayed the expected pickup in growth in other parts of Asia, including Southeast Asia’s larger economies. The region must strengthen its resilience under external shocks. Macroprudential policy can engender enough independence in monetary policy to counter destabilizing capital flows, while a well-developed domestic financial system can alleviate dependence on external borrowing and thereby reduce risk from currency depreciation. The region must mobilize untapped resources to give growth a much needed boost. This Asian Development Outlook Update 2015 highlights how realizing women’s equal rights and contributions to economic and political life can yield ample benefits. While the region has made considerable progress over the past several decades in closing gender gaps in health and education, much remains to be done to erase them in the labor market. This will both marshal more human resources to boost economic growth and do the right thing for women as individuals.
The Asian Development Outlook 2014 projects that developing Asia's growth will increase from 6.1% in 2013 to 6.2% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015. Moderating growth in the People's Republic of China as its economy adjusts to more balanced growth will offset to some extent the stronger demand expected from the industrial countries as their economies recover. Risks to the outlook have eased and are manageable. The monetary policy shift in the United States may invite some volatility ahead in financial markets, albeit mitigated by accommodative monetary policy in Japan and the euro area. The regional growth outlook depends on continued recovery in the major industrial economies and on the People's Republic of China managing to contain internal credit growth smoothly. Widening income gaps in developing Asia strengthens the case for greater use of fiscal policy to foster equality of opportunity. While the region has benefited from fiscal prudence in the past, demographic and environmental challenges are expected to compete for public resources in the coming years. To boost public spending on equity-enhancing programs such as education and health without undermining fiscal sustainability, the authorities will need to explore a wide range of options for mobilizing revenue and to build equity objectives into their fiscal plans.
The Asian Development Outlook 2013 Update looks at governance in developing Asia. Even as the region energetically closes its income gap with advanced economies, a wide gap in governance remains. Yet governance is key to sustaining development momentum, and improving public service delivery can be an entry point for better governance.
Jumpstarting South Asia focuses on the slowing pace of economic growth and makes the case for a two-pronged strategy to jumpstart South Asian economies. South Asian countries should complete the economic reform process that they had begun in the 1980s and the early 1990s and implement the more microeconomic reforms, namely, the sectoral, and governance and institutional reforms to enhance competition and improve the operation of markets. They should also implement the second round of ‘Look East’ policies or LEP2 to link themselves to production networks in East Asia, their fastest-growing market, and develop production networks in manufacturing and services within their region. This book argues that the proposed strategy will lead to a win-win situation for all countries in South Asia and East Asia, and also reinvigorate economic integration within South Asia. The book identifies the remaining policy agenda for each South Asian country.
Developing Asia faces greater uncertainty from the Russian invasion of Ukraine even as the region continues to contend with COVID-19 outbreaks. The war has sent shockwaves across financial and commodity markets. The highly transmissible Omicron variant has fueled a sharp rise in cases in the region, though its less severe health impact, coupled with increased immunity, has allowed economies to remain relatively open. As such, growth in the region is forecast to remain strong, supported by recovering domestic demand. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, aggressive monetary policy tightening in the US, and renewed COVID-19 outbreaks pose near-term risks to the outlook, alongside medium-term risks such as rising inequality due to school closures. Fiscal resources are needed to aid recovery and support sustainable development. But deficits and debt expanded substantially during the pandemic. Mobilizing taxes and optimizing tax incentives needs to be combined with improved spending efficiency to help developing Asia achieve its development objectives.
The Asian Development Outlook is ADB's main economic forecasting product. It is published each April with an Update published in September and brief Supplements published in July and December.
Growth prospects in developing Asia are on the rise, buoyed by a rebound in global trade as solid recovery takes hold in the major industrial economies, and by strong investment demand. Also lifting regional prospects is growth in the People's Republic of China that exceeds expectations. Consumer prices are contained, and external balances under control, as global food and oil prices recover modestly. Risks to the outlook have become more balanced since April forecasts in this series. The advanced economies have so far avoided sharp, unexpected changes to their macroeconomic policies. Further, the fuel price rise is providing fiscal relief to oil exporters but is measured enough not to destabilize oil importers. To meet the region's infrastructure needs, developing Asia must mobilize $1.7 trillion annually. However, even factoring in funds saved through public finance reform or received from multilateral agencies, a significant financing gap remains. This Update highlights how public-private partnership can help fill the financing gap and improve infrastructure delivery by allocating risk to the party best able to manage it. Public-private partnership effectively marshals the private sector’s most valued strengths to meet public sector objectives. Where appropriately implemented, this innovative tool can yield superior development results.
Disembedding autonomy : Asia after the developmental state / Toby Carroll and Darryl S.L. Jarvis -- The origins of East Asia's developmental states and the pressures for change / Richard Stubbs -- Globalization and development : the evolving idea of the developmental state / Shigeko Hayashi -- Late capitalism and the shift from the development state to the variegated market state / Toby Carroll -- Capitalist development in the 21st century : states and global competitiveness / Paul Cammack -- From Japan's Prussian path to China's Singapore model : learning authoritarian developmentalism / Mark Thompson -- What does China's rise mean for the developmental state paradigm? / Mark Beeson -- The state and development in Malaysia : race, class and markets / Darryl S.L. Jarvis -- Survival of the weakest? : the politics of independent regulatory agencies in Indonesia / Jamie Davidson -- The Pandora's box of neoliberalism : housing reforms in China and South Korea / Siu-yau Lee -- Health care and the state in China / M. Ramesh and Azad Bali -- Wither the developmental state? : adaptive state entrepreneurship and social policy expansion in China / Ka Ho Mok -- Public-private partnerships in the water sector in Southeast Asia : trends, issues and lessons / Schuyler House and Wu Xun -- Higher education and the developmental state : the view from East and Southeast Asia / Anthony Welch -- State, capital, and the politics of stratification : a comparative study of welfare regimes in marketizing Asia / Jonathan London -- Modifying recipes : insights on Japanese electricity sector reform and lessons for China / Scott Victor Valentine
The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Global headwinds notwithstanding, developing Asia will continue to contribute 60% of world growth. Modest recovery in Southeast Asia and sustained growth in India will partly offset continued moderation in the People's Republic of China and associated spillover into neighboring economies. Risks to the growth outlook tilt to the downside: future US interest rate hikes that may intensify global financial volatility, a sharper-than-forecast growth slowdown in the People's Republic of China that would hurt regional exports and growth, emerging producer price deflation that may undermine growth in some economies, tepid prices for oil and other commodities, and El Niño. This edition highlights the need to invigorate developing Asia's potential growth, whose decline since its 2007 peak explains much of the region's growth slowdown since the global financial crisis. To ensure a healthy future for potential growth, Asia must employ the full range of policy responses to augment labor supply, improve labor productivity, enhance institutional quality, and maintain macroeconomic stability.