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This helpful book explains how anyone can develop in themselves a visionary leadership. Most leaders today have not developed the visionary capacity necessary to look ahead and explore strategic futures. Or at least their so-called vision is not one that compels, inspires, and energizes their people. Vision may sound like a rare quality, attainable by only a select few--but nothing could be further from the truth. Strategy and leadership expert Rob-Jan de Jong describes how it simply boils down to sharpening two key skills: 1) the ability to see things early, and 2) the power to connect the dots. Using the author’s trademarked FuturePriming process, which helps distinguish signal from noise, readers geared toward fine-tuning these two essential skills will discover how to: Tap into their imagination and open themselves up to the unconventional Become better at seeing things early Frame the big-picture view that provides direction for the future Communicate your vision in a way that engages others and provokes action When you can anticipate change before your competitors, you create enormous strategic advantage. That's what visionaries do, and now so can you.
Digitalisation, globalisation, demographic shifts and other changes in work organisation are constantly reshaping skill needs. This can lead to persistent skill shortages and mismatch which are costly for individuals, firms and society in terms of lost wages and lower productivity and growth.
Policies aimed at reducing the environmental impact of human activities have important consequences for labour markets, jobs, and skills. As employment is shifting towards more sustainable activities, workers are increasingly expected to have skills that support the transition to a greener economy.
Financial markets respond to information virtually instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the system rapidly changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle introduces an important new method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing, and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model. He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks. A technical chapter of econometric results also is included. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Anticipating Correlations puts powerful new forecasting tools into the hands of researchers, financial analysts, risk managers, derivative quants, and graduate students.
Drought. Wildfire. Extreme flooding. How does climate change affect the daily work of scientists? Ecological restoration is often premised on the idea of returning a region to an earlier, healthier state. Yet the effects of climate change undercut that premise and challenge the ways scientists can work, destabilizing the idea of “normalcy” and revealing the politics that shape what scientists can do. How can the practice of ecological restoration shift to anticipate an increasingly dynamic future? And how does a scientific field itself adapt to climate change? Restoration efforts in the Columbia River Basin—a vast and diverse landscape experiencing warming waters, less snowpack, and greater fluctuations in precipitation—may offer answers to some of these questions. Shana Hirsch tells the story of restoration science in the basin, surveying its past and detailing the work of today’s salmon habitat restoration efforts. Her analysis offers critical insight into scientific practices, emerging approaches and ways of thinking, the incorporation of future climate change scenarios into planning, and the ultimate transformation—or adaptation—of the science of ecological restoration. For scientists and environmental managers around the globe, Anticipating Future Environments will shed light on how to more effectively cope with climate change.
Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)
Wesleyanism is a movement of hope. Wesleyans and their Holiness and Pentecostal offspring pray and work with the expectancy that the love and power of God will transform hearts and lives, renew the church, and bring compassion, healing, and justice to a suffering world. In a variety of ways, from holiness of heart and life to bodily healing to the abolition of slavery, they anticipated the life of the coming kingdom of heaven to already be breaking into the present through the power of the Holy Spirit. Anticipating Heaven Below explores their optimism of grace, examining its pitfalls as well as its promise. Henry H. Knight seeks to enable and inspire present generations within Wesleyan, Holiness, and Pentecostal movements to proclaim with confidence the promise of heaven below, and to do so with passion and integrity.
Captivate the hearts and minds of young adult readers! Writing for young adult (YA) and middle grade (MG) audiences isn't just "kid's stuff" anymore--it's kidlit! The YA and MG book markets are healthier and more robust than ever, and that means the competition is fiercer, too. In Writing Irresistible Kidlit, literary agent Mary Kole shares her expertise on writing novels for young adult and middle grade readers and teaches you how to: • Recognize the differences between middle grade and young adult audiences and how it impacts your writing. • Tailor your manuscript's tone, length, and content to your readership. • Avoid common mistakes and cliches that are prevalent in YA and MG fiction, in respect to characters, story ideas, plot structure and more. • Develop themes and ideas in your novel that will strike emotional chords. Mary Kole's candid commentary and insightful observations, as well as a collection of book excerpts and personal insights from bestselling authors and editors who specialize in the children's book market, are invaluable tools for your kidlit career. If you want the skills, techniques, and know-how you need to craft memorable stories for teens and tweens, Writing Irresistible Kidlit can give them to you.