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In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
This revised edition (updated for the 2024 election) explains American presidential campaigns and includes stickers, activities, and a color-your-own Electoral Map! Who can run for president? What are the differences between America's two major political parties? Is the Electoral College really a college? The newly updated What Is a Presidential Election? answers these questions and many, many more. From stump speeches to campaign slogans, debates to nominating conventions, and finally to Election Night and Inauguration Day, readers will learn all about what it takes to run for--and win--the most powerful job on earth. Activities throughout prompt readers to think about the issues they care most about and consider what makes a good president, sparking discussion with friends and family. Includes a sheet of presidential bobblehead stickers and a color-your-own Electoral Map for the upcoming 2024 election!
In his latest book, Presidential Elections and Majority Rule, Edward Foley asks how the American electoral system can better represent the people. What kind of winner truly reflects the nation's votes: the plurality winners of winner-takes-all elections, as currently used, or the majority-preferred winners of a reformed system? How do third-party candidates affect American presidential elections? What, if anything, would change in a two-candidate run-off?And how can electoral reform be implemented without sowing chaos? Ultimately, Foley outlines a solution in which the Electoral College can be restored to its original majoritarian ideals through state law rather than Constitutional amendment.
Because of its extraordinary consequences and because of Abraham Lincoln's place in the American pantheon, the presidential election of 1860 is probably the most studied in our history. But perhaps for the same reasons, historians have focused on the contest of Lincoln versus Stephen Douglas in the northern free states and John Bell versus John C. Breckinridge in the slaveholding South. In The Election of 1860 a preeminent scholar of American history disrupts this familiar narrative with a clearer and more comprehensive account of how the election unfolded and what it was actually about. Most critically, the book counters the common interpretation of the election as a referendum on slavery and the Republican Party's purported threat to it. However significantly slavery figured in the election, The Election of 1860 reveals the key importance of widespread opposition to the Republican Party because of its overtly anti-southern rhetoric and seemingly unstoppable rise to power in the North after its emergence in 1854. Also of critical importance was the corruption of the incumbent administration of Democrat James Buchanan—and a nationwide revulsion against party. Grounding his history in a nuanced retelling of the pre-1860 story, Michael F. Holt explores the sectional politics that permeated the election and foreshadowed the coming Civil War. He brings to light how the campaigns of the Republican Party and the National (Northern) Democrats and the Constitutional (Southern) Democrats and the newly formed Constitutional Union Party were not exclusively regional. His attention to the little-studied role of the Buchanan Administration, and of perceived threats to the preservation of the Union, clarifies the true dynamic of the 1860 presidential election, particularly in its early stages.
Analyzes political parties, candidates, primaries, conventions, delegates, campaigns, political finance, and voting.
Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell's "theory of the predictable campaign," incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell's cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists' ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides:a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes;a historical summary of many of America's important presidential elections;a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.
Union general, federal judge, presidential contender, and cabinet officer—Walter Q. Gresham of Indiana stands as an enigmatic character in the politics of the Gilded Age, one who never seemed comfortable in the offices he sought. This first scholarly biography not only follows the turns of his career but seeks also to find the roots of his disaffection. Entering politics as a Whig, Gresham shortly turned to help organize the new Republican Party and was a contender for its presidential nomination in the 1880s. But he became popular with labor and with the Populists and closed his political career by serving as secretary of state under Grover Cleveland. In reviewing Gresham's conduct of foreign affairs, Charles W. Calhoun disputes the widely held view that he was an economic expansionist who paved the way for imperialism. Gresham, instead, is seen here as a traditionalist who tried to steer the country away from entanglements abroad. It is this traditionalism that Calhoun finds to be the clue to Gresham's career. Troubled with self-doubt, Gresham, like the Cato of old, sought strength in a return to the republican virtues of the Revolutionary generation. Based on a thorough use of the available resources, this will stand as the definitive biography of an important figure in American political and diplomatic history, and in its portrayal of a man out of step with his times it sheds a different light on the politics of the Gilded Age.
This book analyzes presidential elections over the sweep of American history, studies the 1992 presidential election, and examines the impact of presidential elections on the U.S. political system and society. It is guided by three basic questions: Are the fifty-two elections in U.S. history a set of discrete events, or are there patterns among them? Are some elections more important than others? And what is their impact on political parties, public policy, and society? The authors compare and contrast presidential elections in order to understand better their individual dynamics. An extensive introduction thoroughly grounds readers in the processes of presidential selection; Milton C. Cummings, Jr. charts the dynamics of the 1992 election, describes the pattern of the vote, and contrasts the outcome with those of 1984 and 1988; Gerald M. Pomper analyzes state-level presidential election results and evaluates the effectiveness of political parties in the democratic process; David R. Mayhew tests the link between elections and major policy change, looking at the impact of divided government on politics and policymaking at the national level; Everett C. Ladd analyzes the impact of postindustrial society on parties and the electoral system; and Harvey L. Schantz examines sectional voting patterns in presidential elections from 1824 to 1992.
This report describes the four stages of the presidential election process: the pre-nomination primaries and caucuses for selecting delegates to the national conventions; the national nominating conventions; the general election; and voting by members of the electoral college to choose the President and Vice President. The report will be updated again for the 2004 presidential election.
Using data and examples from the 2008 election, and laced with previews of 2012, this text offers an overview of the presidential election process from the earliest straw polls and fundraisers to final voter turnout and exit interviews. The coverage includes campaign strategy, the sequence of electoral events, and the issues, all from the perspective of the various actors in the election process voters, interest groups, political parties, the media, and the candidates themselves.