Download Free Alternative Theories Of Output Unemployment And Inflation In Germany 1960 1985 Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Alternative Theories Of Output Unemployment And Inflation In Germany 1960 1985 and write the review.

by Jerome L. Stein Disenchantment with Keynesian econollics developed during the post-1968 period when the rate of growth of output declined, the rate of unemployment rose, and the rate of inflation increased in the U.S. and in other countries. This paradox, called stagflation, was inconsistent with the tenet of Keynesian economics that cyclical movemants in prices and output relative to their respective trends are positively correlated. A search occurred for a more satisfactory theory of macroeconomics which could explain the paradox of stagflation and the observed economic phenomena. The New Classical Economics (NCE) developed as the total rejection of Keynesian economics. The Keynesians claimed that their demand management policies contributed to the obsolescence of the business cycle and successfully eliminated the gap between full employment (potential) output and actusl output. The NCE argued just the opposite: the unemplo~nt rate or growth rate of real output is insensitive to systematic demand management policies [Lucas; Sargent and Wallace].
by Jerome L. Stein Disenchantment with Keynesian econollics developed during the post-1968 period when the rate of growth of output declined, the rate of unemployment rose, and the rate of inflation increased in the U.S. and in other countries. This paradox, called stagflation, was inconsistent with the tenet of Keynesian economics that cyclical movemants in prices and output relative to their respective trends are positively correlated. A search occurred for a more satisfactory theory of macroeconomics which could explain the paradox of stagflation and the observed economic phenomena. The New Classical Economics (NCE) developed as the total rejection of Keynesian economics. The Keynesians claimed that their demand management policies contributed to the obsolescence of the business cycle and successfully eliminated the gap between full employment (potential) output and actusl output. The NCE argued just the opposite: the unemplo~nt rate or growth rate of real output is insensitive to systematic demand management policies [Lucas; Sargent and Wallace].
Project planning, scheduling, and control are regularly used in business and the service sector of an economy to accomplish outcomes with limited resources under critical time constraints. To aid in solving these problems, network-based planning methods have been developed that now exist in a wide variety of forms, cf. Elmaghraby (1977) and Moder et al. (1983). The so-called "classical" project networks, which are used in the network techniques CPM and PERT and which represent acyclic weighted directed graphs, are able to describe only projects whose evolution in time is uniquely specified in advance. Here every event of the project is realized exactly once during a single project execution and it is not possible to return to activities previously carried out (that is, no feedback is permitted). Many practical projects, however, do not meet those conditions. Consider, for example, a production process where some parts produced by a machine may be poorly manufactured. If an inspection shows that a part does not conform to certain specifications, it must be repaired or replaced by a new item. This means that we have to return to a preceding stage of the production process. In other words, there is feedback. Note that the result of the inspection is that a certain percentage of the parts tested do not conform. That is, there is a positive probability (strictly less than 1) that any part is defective.
This book was accepted in 1999 as doctoral thesis (Dr. oec. publ. ) by the faculty of economics of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat in Munich. It won the dissertation price of the Alumni-Club of the economics faculty in the academic year 2000. Financial assistance by the German Research Asso ciation (DFG) for printing costs is gratefully acknowledged. I have to thank the people behind the B\'IF,X-project, in particular Donald Knuth and Leslie Lamport, for their wonderful typesetting program. The supervisors of my thesis were Prof. Dr. G. Flaig and Prof. Dr. D. Marin. I would like thank both for their thorough reading of the book and their ideas and critical remarks. lowe much gratitude to my academic teacher Prof. Dr. G. Flaig for many insightful conversations about modern time series econometrics, asymptotic theory and data problems. His empha sis on clear theory combined with sound econometric methods formed my personal ideal of how to do applied economics. After he left the university in 1998I had the opportunity to continue my work at the Center for Economic Studies. Prof. Dr. H. -W. Sinn and my new colleaguesat CES provided a stim ulating environment for the completion of my dissertation. Finally, I want to thank my parents, my sister and my friends for being there and sharing my cheers and worries. Munich, October 2000 Michael Reutter Our main concern in philosophy and in science should be the search fortruth. Justification is not an aim; and brilliance and cleverness as such are boring.
1.1 Some characteristics of the floating exchange rate system The flexible exchange rate system has functioned far less satisfactorily than many anticipated in 1973, when the major industrialized countries decided to let their currencies float. The dominant currencies' exchange rates have fluctuated more 1 than expected. These fluctuations concern both short-term movement- intraday fluctuations and movements during a week or a month - and long term changes that last for more than a year. Daily percentage changes of one percent are not unusual for the recent float (see MacDonald, 1988, p.8). However, the release of new information can give rise to much larger changes. For example in August 1987 "the dollar moved down 6 percent in two days based on the July trade figures" (Glynn, 1988, p. 36). For the period 1973-1985 MacDonald (1988, p.10) presents minimum and maximum monthly percentage exchange rate changes. These figures clearly illustrate the magnitude of the volatility and also show that the volatility has not diminished as the experience 2 with floating has increased. In addition to this volatility, exchange rates are also characterized by misalignment: "persistent departure of the exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium" (Williamson, 1983, p.l3). Although the measure of misalignment depends upon the exact definition of the exchange rate's long-run equilibrium, there is a widespread feeling that during the greater part of the 1970s the dollar was undervalued, whereas it was overvalued during the first half of the 1980s.
This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the symposium on "Decision processes in Economics" which was held in Modena (Italy) on 9-10 October 1989. It coincided with the annual meeting of the italian group on Game Theory; the group is formed by economists, mathematicians, engineers and social scientists. One of the targets of the Meeting, and therefore of the book, is to create an opportunity for having together papers by scientists with an "optimal control" education and papers by theorists on refinement of equilibrium, on repeted games and other topics. These two modes of working on Games are quite different but we think that a unitary approch to Games can be given and this book is an attempt in this direction. Another important and updated issue which is emphisized in the book is the discussion of computation and efficiency of numerical methods in Games. Stochastic differential games are treated in the papers by Basar, Haurie -and Deissemberg. Basar considers a stochastic model of a conflict situation between the monetary policy maker (go vernment) and the responding agent (private sector). Because of asymmetry in the (stochastic) information available the Nash and the Stackelberg games become non standard stochastic diffe rential games. After the discussion of the conditions leading to a solution he provides a numerical example for the proposed game. Haurie considers a game where the observed state changes according to a stochastic jump process.
This book presents an econometric modeling approach for analysing macroeconomic disequilibria, focusing on the market for goods and labor and the spillovers between these markets transmitted through firms' decisions in the production sphere. The macroeconomic markets are treated as heterogeneous aggregates, consisting of a multitute of micro markets on which demand/supply ratios differ. Disequilibrium models have been under attack because they neglect that inventories enable firms to smooth production over the cycle, but the author argues that buffer stocks (output inventories, unfilled orders) should be accounted for within the disequilibrium framework, giving rise to a dynamic modification rather than a fundamental invalidation of rationing and spillover effects. The model developed in this book combines traditional Keynesian-type analysis with supply-side considerations and at the same time allows for micro-level imbalance. The resulting econometric structure is inherently nonlinear, reflecting that the response of economic activity to demand-side and supply-side factors varies over the cycle, depending on the aggregate mix of regimes. The model is estimated with quarterly data for Switzerland. Various simulation experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of this type of model for empirical business cycle analysis and policy discussions.
A Silverman game is a two-person zero-sum game defined in terms of two sets S I and S II of positive numbers, and two parameters, the threshold T > 1 and the penalty v > 0. Players I and II independently choose numbers from S I and S II, respectively. The higher number wins 1, unless it is at least T times as large as the other, in which case it loses v. Equal numbers tie. Such a game might be used to model various bidding or spending situations in which within some bounds the higher bidder or bigger spender wins, but loses if it is overdone. Such situations may include spending on armaments, advertising spending or sealed bids in an auction. Previous work has dealt mainly with special cases. In this work recent progress for arbitrary discrete sets S I and S II is presented. Under quite general conditions, these games reduce to finite matrix games. A large class of games are completely determined by the diagonal of the matrix, and it is shown how the great majority of these appear to have unique optimal strategies. The work is accessible to all who are familiar with basic noncooperative game theory.
This book explores the econometric implications of a policy-maker's learning. In a simple discrete model the policymaker maximizes the discounted sum of tax revenues subject to a constraint which involves an unknown parameter specifying the occurrence of Bayesian learning. An optimal balance needs to be found between maximizing current payoff and generating information which enhances the efficiency of maximization in subsequent periods. Learning is demonstrated to affect the exogeneity status of policy variables in small samples and to have implications analogous to the phenomenon in the focus of the Lucas critique. Active learning is proven to be a distinct cause of time inconsistency of optimal plane. It is argued that learning cannot be dismissed as a merely transitory source of these phenomena. A simulation exercise supplies quantitative evidence. Finally, the data generated are used to perform empirical exogeneity tests. Results show that the effect of Bayesian learning is empirically detectable. Learning is generally accepted as the driving force towards a rational expectations equilibrium with perfect information. In this context, the result on the loss of exogeneity of policy variables is an out-of-equilibrium econometric implication of the rational expectations hypothesis. This book is the first to explore the effect of an informational feedback on exogeneity.
Many problems in economics can be formulated as linearly constrained mathematical optimization problems, where the feasible solution set X represents a convex polyhedral set. In practice, the set X frequently contains degenerate verti- ces, yielding diverse problems in the determination of an optimal solution as well as in postoptimal analysis.The so- called degeneracy graphs represent a useful tool for des- cribing and solving degeneracy problems. The study of dege- neracy graphs opens a new field of research with many theo- retical aspects and practical applications. The present pu- blication pursues two aims. On the one hand the theory of degeneracy graphs is developed generally, which will serve as a basis for further applications. On the other hand dege- neracy graphs will be used to explain simplex cycling, i.e. necessary and sufficient conditions for cycling will be de- rived.