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In less than one month, sixteen year old Darcys life did a 180. She discovers her real mother is dead, a boy she vows to hate forever for betraying her, is shoved back into her life and her uncle, who raised her is brutally killed before her eyes. Darcy had grown up in a small, quiet logging town in Northern Idaho. Her uncles alpaca ranch is an hour from town. To fight the lonely times, she became a top marksman winning three trophies against all the members of Waltons Shooting Club, which Darcy got a kick from the status of beating all the guys. With only one year left of school, she and her girlfriends were excited about their summer plans, staying at a cabin by themselves for a week and finally being asked to the prestigious Priest Lake Dock party. But a week before school is out on May 29th, over 1500 miles away, an earthquake registering 8.9 on the Richter scale hit California. This event changes not only the lives of the people in the area, but it also affects the people as far up as the panhandle of Idaho.
Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.
This report is part of a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessments (SAP) aimed at providing current assessments of climate change science to inform public debate, policy, and operational decisions. These reports are also intended to help develop future program research priorities. The guiding vision is to provide the Nation and the global community with the science-based knowledge needed to manage the risks and capture the opportunities associated with climate and related environmental changes. This SAP assesses abrupt climate change events where key aspects of the climate system change faster than the responsible forces would suggest and/or faster than society can respond to those changes. Illustrations.
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, St. Hugues de Biviers, France, October 16-22, 1985
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 193. Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts brings together a diverse group of paleoproxy records such as ice cores, marine sediments, terrestrial (lakes and speleothems) archives, and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models to document recent advances in understanding the mechanisms of abrupt climate changes. Since the discovery of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events in Greenland ice cores and the subsequent discovery of their contemporary events in the marine sediments of the North Atlantic, the search for these abrupt, millennial-scale events across the globe has intensified, and as a result, the number of paleoclimatic records chronicling such events has increased. The volume highlights include discussions of records of past climate variability, meridional overturning circulation, land-ocean-atmosphere interactions, feedbacks in the climate system, and global temperature anomalies. Abrupt Climate Change will be of interest to students, researchers, academics, and policy makers who are concerned about abrupt climate change and its potential impact on society.
When he is hijacked by Islamic terrorists, an oil company engineer is forced to investigate a mysterious illness afflicting a small Yemen village ... with shocking results. A stunning debut thriller and first in the addictive, eye-opening Claymore Straker series. ***Shortlisted for the CWA John Creasey New Blood Dagger*** ***Book of the Year in the TELEGRAPH*** 'Just occasionally, a book comes along to restore your faith in a genre and Paul Hardisty's The Abrupt Physics of Dying does this in spades' The Times 'A stormer of a thriller – vividly written, utterly topical, totally gripping' Peter James 'Remarkably well-written and sophisticated' Literary Review 'A page-turning adventure that grabs you from the first page and won't let go' Edward Wilson ____________________ One man. An oil company. A decision that could cost his life. Claymore Straker is trying to forget a violent past. Working as an oil company engineer in the wilds of Yemen, he is hijacked at gunpoint by Islamic terrorists. Clay has a choice: help uncover the cause of a mysterious sickness afflicting the village of Al Urush, close to the company's oil-processing facility, or watch Abdulkader, his driver and close friend, die. As the country descends into civil war and village children start dying, Clay finds himself caught up in a ruthless struggle between opposing armies, controllers of the country's oil wealth, Yemen's shadowy secret service, and rival terrorist factions. As Clay scrambles to keep his friend alive, he meets Rania, a troubled journalist. Together, they try to uncover the truth about Al Urush. But nothing in this ancient, unforgiving place is as it seems. Accused of a murder he did not commit, put on the CIA's most-wanted list, Clay must come to terms with his past and confront the powerful forces that want him dead. A stunning debut eco-thriller, The Abrupt Physics of Dying will not only open your eyes, but keep them glued to the page until the final, stunning denouement is reached. ____________________ 'Trenchant and engaging' Stav Sherez, Catholic Herald 'A solid, meaty thriller – Hardisty is a fine writer and Straker is a great lead character' Lee Child 'Full of thrills, spills and moral indignation ... an outstanding debut' Jake Kerridge, Telegraph 'Fast-paced and cleverly written, this novel has bestseller written all over it' West Australian 'An exceptional debut, beautifully written, blisteringly authentic, heartstoppingly tense and unusually moving. Definite award material' Paul Johnston 'A thriller of the highest quality, with the potential to one day stand in the company of such luminaries as Bond and Bourne' Live Many Lives 'A big, powerful, sophisticated and page-turning thriller – thought-provoking and prescient' Eve Seymour 'A forceful first novel by a writer not afraid of weighty issues and visibly in love with the beauty of the Yemen and desert landscapes his protagonists travel through' Maxim Jakubowski 'Searing ... at times achieves the level of genuine poetry' Publishers Weekly STARRED review 'A fast-paced action thriller, beautifully written' Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of Geography
This book deals with the class of singular systems with random abrupt changes also known as singular Markovian jump systems. Various problems and their robustness are tackled. The book examines both the theoretical and practical aspects of the control problems from the angle of the structural properties of linear systems. It can be used as a textbook as well as a reference for researchers in control or mathematics with interest in control theory.
The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.