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This paper examines the Chilean experience with capital controls and reviews studies on controls on capital inflows. Controls on Chile’s inflows had only a temporary impact in reducing specific inflows because they were affected by avoidance. There is some evidence that controls increased interest rates and altered the composition of capital inflows. The studies, however, contain important methodological problems in measuring flows and significant econometric weaknesses, which cast doubt on the robustness of the estimates. No study has assessed the political economy of the controls. It seems premature to view the Chilean experience as supportive of controls on capital inflows.
The author evaluates the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia, aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to his Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, the co-integration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, the results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.
Capital account liberalization - orderly, properly sequence, and befitting the individual circumstances of countries- is an inevitable step for all countries wishing to realize the benefits of the globalized economy. This paper reviews the theories behind capital account liberalization and examines the dangers associated with free capital flows. The authors conclude that the dangers can be limited through a combination of sound macroeconomic and prudential policies.
Drawing on evidence from a sample of emerging market economies over the period 1990-2004, this evaluation report reviews the IMF’s approach to capital account liberalization and related issues. The evaluation seeks to contribute to transparency by documenting what in practice has been the IMF's approach to these issues and to identify areas where the IMF’s instruments and operating methods might be improved, in order to deal with these issues more effectively.
Using a panel data set for international corporate bonds and capital account restrictions in advanced and emerging economies, we show that restrictions on capital inflows produce a substantial and economically meaningful increase in corporate bond spreads. A number of heterogeneities suggest that the effect of capital controls on inflows is particularly strong for more financially constrained firms, establishing a novel channel through which capital controls affect economic outcomes. By contrast, we do not find a robust significant effect of restrictions on outflows.
"Writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account liberalization find few, if any, robust effects of liberalization on real variables. In contrast to the prevailing wisdom, I argue that the textbook theory of liberalization holds up quite well to a critical reading of this literature. The lion's share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables tell us nothing about the empirical validity of the theory, because they do not really test it. This paper explains why it is that most studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. It also discusses what is necessary to test the theory and examines papers that have done so. Studies that actually test the theory show that liberalization has significant effects on the cost of capital, investment, and economic growth"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
'This collection provides an excellent account of the diverging ways countries in varying parts of the world went about liberalizing capital flows. Case studies of transition countries are set against the background of more general studies analysing the Asian and Latin American experience, as well as the earlier liberalization processes in economically advanced countries. The reader gets a lively picture of the many pitfalls that beset the road to full capital liberalization and will realise that there is no single best way to liberalize. The authors strike one as unprejudiced and far from dogmatic, out to learn from experience rather than trying to impose some particular point of view.' - Hans Visser, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands This significant new book provides a succinct overview of the essential policy issues surrounding capital liberalization. The book compares the experiences of transition economies in Europe with those of advanced nations, allowing the reader to examine the changing international economic and financial environment within which transition countries have to liberalize.
The Asian Development Review is a professional journal for disseminating the results of economic and development research carried out by staff and resource persons of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The Review seeks high-quality papers with relevance to policy issues and operational matters done in an empirically-rigorous way. Articles are intended for readership among economists and social scientists in government, private sector, academia, and international organizations. This is the second issue to cover the proceedings of ADB's Forum on Capital Controls held on 14 July 2011, and assesses the experiences of selected Asian countries in using de jure capital controls.
Do controls on capital flows persistently isolate domestic markets from international markets? Or is the insulation they provide just ephemeral?
This book is a collection of papers that provides deeper insight into the financial crises of the 1990's in Asia and Latin America and explores the possibilities for their solution.