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​This book is an update of the first BACC assessment, published in 2008. It offers new and updated scientific findings in regional climate research for the Baltic Sea basin. These include climate changes since the last glaciation (approx. 12,000 years ago), changes in the recent past (the last 200 years), climate projections up until 2100 using state-of-the-art regional climate models and an assessment of climate-change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. There are dedicated new chapters on sea-level rise, coastal erosion and impacts on urban areas. A new set of chapters deals with possible causes of regional climate change along with the global effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, namely atmospheric aerosols and land-cover change. The evidence collected and presented in this book shows that the regional climate has already started to change and this is expected to continue. Projections of potential future climates show that the region will probably become considerably warmer and wetter in some parts, but dryer in others. Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have already shown adjustments to increased temperatures and are expected to undergo further changes in the near future. The BACC II Author Team consists of 141 scientists from 12 countries, covering various disciplines related to climate research and related impacts. BACC II is a project of the Baltic Earth research network and contributes to the World Climate Research Programme.
Introduction to Geophysical Fluid Dynamics provides an introductory-level exploration of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD), the principles governing air and water flows on large terrestrial scales. Physical principles are illustrated with the aid of the simplest existing models, and the computer methods are shown in juxtaposition with the equations to which they apply. It explores contemporary topics of climate dynamics and equatorial dynamics, including the Greenhouse Effect, global warming, and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. - Combines both physical and numerical aspects of geophysical fluid dynamics into a single affordable volume - Explores contemporary topics such as the Greenhouse Effect, global warming and the El Nino Southern Oscillation - Biographical and historical notes at the ends of chapters trace the intellectual development of the field - Recipient of the 2010 Wernaers Prize, awarded each year by the National Fund for Scientific Research of Belgium (FNR-FNRS)
Explains how climatologists have come to understand current climate variability and trends through analysis of observations, datasets and models.
The Mediterranean Sea, as a “centre” of the ancient world, has been early recognized as a laboratory basin for a variety of atmospheric, ocean and climate studies. Its uniqueness is manifested in its geographical position, a mid-latitude region connecting three continents, orography that affects cyclogenesis, precipitation and winds, ocean bathymetry that is shaped by narrow and shallow straits, passages and sills, and other. Its both atmospheric and oceanic climate is distinctive and, while differing substantially from neighbouring continents and oceans, it strongly interferes and shapes their properties. One of such adjacent basins is the Black Sea, which is, albeit minor in quantity, providing a noteworthy impact to the Mediterranean and vice versa. This topical volume of Pure and Applied Geophysics is presenting recent investigations of atmospheric and ocean properties, processes and climate of both basins, being inspired by presentations given in the Joint Congress of the 6th International Conference on Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean & Challenges in Meteorology 5, held in Zagreb, Croatia, on 20-22 February 2017. The volume comprises 22 papers that are classified in three research categories: (1) storms, extremes and mesoscale processes, (2) atmospheric climate, variability and climate change, and (3) ocean climate and variability. The papers investigate processes occurring over a variety of spatial and temporal scales, from hemispheric processes that drive the observed changes in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, through phenomena that are influencing the whole basin or its sub-basins, to local and mesoscale extreme events that are affecting large cities and local populations in the region. The volume is of interest to atmospheric and oceanic researchers involved in a variety of processes that are occurring over the Mediterranean and Black Sea region. This particularly refers to young researchers and PhD students that are yet to enter to research of this unique and exciting region full of challenges that need an interdisciplinary, innovative and state-of-the-art approaches in solving actual research problems.
Taking the Temperature of the Earth: Steps towards Integrated Understanding of Variability and Change presents an integrated, collaborative approach to observing and understanding various surface temperatures from a whole-Earth perspective. The book describes the progress in improving the quality of surface temperatures across different domains of the Earth's surface (air, land, sea, lakes and ice), assessing variability and long-term trends, and providing applications of surface temperature data to detect and better understand Earth system behavior. As cooperation is essential between scientific communities, whose focus on particular domains of Earth's surface and on different components of the observing system help to accelerate scientific understanding and multiply the benefits for society, this book bridges the gap between domains. - Includes sections on data validation and uncertainty, data availability and applications - Integrates remote sensing and in situ data sources - Presents a whole earth perspective on surface temperature datasets, delving into all domains to build and understand relationships between the datasets
Drawing upon the recent explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays offers many fresh and important contributions to the study of ecological inference.
An overall increase in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is predicted to occur in response to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases." The most prominent of these gases, carbon dioxide, has increased in concentration by over 30% during the past 200 years, and is expected to continue to increase well into the future. Other changes in atmospheric composition complicate the picture. In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Many in the scientific community believe that a distinctive greenhouse-warming signature is evident in surface temperature data for the past few decades. Some, however, are puzzled by the fact that satellite temperature measurements indicate little, if any, warming of the lower to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the surface up to about 8 km) since such satellite observations first became operational in 1979. The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based on radiosonde data. Some have interpreted this apparent discrepancy between surface and upper air observations as casting doubt on the overall reliability of the surface temperature record, whereas others have concluded that the satellite data (or the algorithms that are being used to convert them into temperatures) must be erroneous. It is also conceivable that temperatures at the earth's surface and aloft have not tracked each other perfectly because they have responded differently to natural and/or human-induced climate forcing during this particular 20-year period. Whether these differing temperature trends can be reconciled has implications for assessing: how much the earth has warmed during the past few decades, whether observed changes are in accord with the predicted response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on model simulations, and whether the existing atmospheric observing system is adequate for the purposes of monitoring global-mean temperature. This report reassesses the apparent differences between the temperature changes recorded by satellites and the surface thermometer network on the basis of the latest available information. It also offers an informed opinion as to how the different temperature records should be interpreted, and recommends actions designed to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these measurements.
Waves critically affect man in coastal regions, including the open coasts and adjacent continental shelves. Preventing beach erosion, designing and building structures, designing and operating ships, providing marine forecasts, and coastal planning are but a few examples of projects for which extensive information about wave conditions is critical. Scientific studies, especially those in volving coastal processes and the development of better wave prediction models, also require wave condition information. How ever, wave conditions along and off the coasts of the United States have not been adequately determined. The main categories of available wave data are visual estimates of wave conditions made from ships at sea, scientific measurements of waves made for short time periods at specific locations, and a small number of long-term measurements made from piers or offshore platforms. With these considerations in mind, the National Ocean Survey of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored the Ocean Wave Climate Symposium at Herndon, Virginia, July 12-14, 1977. This volume contains papers presented at this symposium. A goal of the symposium was to establish the foundations for a com prehensive and far-sighted wave measurement and analysis program to fully describe the coastal wave climate of the United States. Emphasis was placed on ocean engineering and scientific uses of wave data, existing wave monitoring programs, and modern measure ment techniques which may provide currently needed data.
Climatology, the study of climate, is no longer regarded as a single discipline that treats climate as something that fluctuates only within the unchanging boundaries described by historical statistics. The field has recognized that climate is something that changes continually under the influence of physical and biological forces and so, cannot be understood in isolation but rather, is one that includes diverse scientific disciplines that play their role in understanding a highly complex coupled "whole system" that is the earth's climate. The modern era of climatology is echoed in this book. On the one hand it offers a broad synoptic perspective but also considers the regional standpoint, as it is this that affects what people need from climatology. Aspects on the topic of climate change - what is often considered a contradiction in terms - is also addressed. It is all too evident these days that what recent work in climatology has revealed carries profound implications for economic and social policy; it is with these in mind that the final chapters consider acumens as to the application of what has been learned to date.