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This book discusses how to collect data and analyze databases in order to map risk zones, and contributes to developing a conceptual framework for coastal risk assessment. Further, the book primarily focuses on a specific case study: the Bay of Bengal along the southeastern coast of India. The dramatic rise in losses and casualties due to natural disasters like wind, storm-surge-induced flooding, seismic hazards and tsunami incidence along this coast over the past few decades has prompted a major national scientific initiative investigating the probable causes and possible mitigation strategies. As such, geoscientists are called upon to analyze the coastal hazards by anticipating the changes in and impacts of extreme weather hazards on the Bay of Bengal coasts as a result of global climate change and local sea-level change.
Tide gauges show that global sea level has risen about 7 inches during the 20th century, and recent satellite data show that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating. As Earth warms, sea levels are rising mainly because ocean water expands as it warms; and water from melting glaciers and ice sheets is flowing into the ocean. Sea-level rise poses enormous risks to the valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands that line much of the 1,600 mile shoreline of California, Oregon, and Washington. As those states seek to incorporate projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning, they asked the National Research Council to make independent projections of sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account regional factors that affect sea level. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future explains that sea level along the U.S. west coast is affected by a number of factors. These include: climate patterns such as the El Niño, effects from the melting of modern and ancient ice sheets, and geologic processes, such as plate tectonics. Regional projections for California, Oregon, and Washington show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections. However, projections are lower north of Cape Mendocino because the land is being pushed upward as the ocean plate moves under the continental plate along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. However, an earthquake magnitude 8 or larger, which occurs in the region every few hundred to 1,000 years, would cause the land to drop and sea level to suddenly rise.
This book assists the reader in determining storm risks, focussing on sandy coasts and cliff coasts in the context of expected sea level rise from littoral transformation and climate change. It examines storm impacts through matrixes concerning physical parameters, socio-economic activities, ecological and historic resources, and it presents the Coastline Risk to Storms Index as a single numerical measure of the risk for a given area. The methodology is described and tested against two coastal areas: one in the Caribbean Sea (Cartagena, Colombia) and the other on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean (Cadiz, Spain). Both areas record an important flow of tourists associated with the “sun, sea and sand market” which represents an economic recourse for the hinterland too. Chapters describe this approach and explore three particular types of variables: i) the forcing variables contributing to storm-induced erosion, ii) dynamic variables that determine the resilience to erosion (Susceptibility) and iii) the vulnerable targets grouped in three different contexts (socio-economic, ecological and heritage). These are combined into two separate indices, the Hazard Index (combining forcing and susceptibility) and the Vulnerability Index, which together constitute the Coastline Risk to Storms Index. Maps created using this semi-quantitative approximation method can help to determine the causes, processes and consequences of storm-related processes. This book is therefore important to anyone considering coastal development programs, especially decision-makers: the work presented here can assist in the development of preventative management strategies for the most vulnerable areas.