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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Conventional wisdom among policymakers in both the US and Europe holds that weak and failing states are the source of the world's most pressing security threats today. However, as this book shows, our assumptions about the threats posed by failed and failing states are based on false premises.
A work of political economy from the perspective of an anthropologist who has made a career of studying poverty and displaced people, Global Threats, Global Futures will prove rewarding reading for anyone concerned with issues of economic development, environmental and cultural degradation, and the causes and solutions of poverty. Most of all, Thayer Scudder illuminates a path, not only possible but plausible, through a destructive maze of humankind s own making if only the political will can be found to tread it. Engineering & Science Thayer Scudder is one of those gifted authors who have the experience and the vision to span multiple sectors and far flung sites in assessing where humankind and its habitat are heading. His restless curiosity in everything around him has led him to become not simply the world s leading authority on the impacts on the lives of people resettled by dam-building projects but an innovative thinker about development anthropology and the threats to the globe from poverty, fundamentalism in all its pernicious forms and environmental degradation. This iconoclastic book assails sacred cows ranging from the World Bank to the malign role of Buddhist priests in the late civil war in Sri Lanka. The work is not reassuring. But its conclusion that humans can learn to live with declining living standards is more uplifting than doom-laden. David McDowell, Former Director General of the IUCN and New Zealand Ambassador to the United Nations Neither Pollyanna nor Prophet of Doom, Professor Scudder has drawn on his 55 years of international experience and presented a clear, hard hitting, extraordinarily well documented analysis of the critical and urgent global challenges that face humankind and of the transformations that will be required to meet those challenges. This is a very important book. It should be read by an informed public, but most particularly by leaders and policy makers of the world s governments, international organizations, educational and religious institutions. Lee Talbot, George Mason University, US This is an extraordinary, bold, and exceptionally well thought out prospectus on the next century of the human condition. Declining living standards, consequential to the pervasive pursuit of growth in terms of Gross Domestic Product, is a central theme that is thoroughly documented and engagingly articulated. The decisive role in the decline of living standards played by global threats including poverty, fundamentalism, environmental degradation, wars, and excess consumption, is compellingly presented from the perspective of the author s unique career. Burton Singer, Princeton University, US This impressive study of the progressive impoverishment of the world s resources speaks with the authority of Thayer Scudder s fifty years of experience with international programs for technological development, especially those that involve river basin development and resulting population displacement and resettlement. Case studies from different continents provide the evidence for the likelihood that the majority in future generations will lead more meager lives than their twentieth century ancestors. He points to what has gone wrong in our approach to the world and its resources and to the measures necessary to offset the damage already caused. If only citizens have the political will to adopt them. Elizabeth Colson, University of California, Berkeley, US This is an important book. It has to be listened to, and for two reasons. The first is the expertise of the author: the guy has been there: this is an anthropologist who is constantly in the field. And he possesses a wide range of skills: part ethnographer, part biologist, as much a humanist as a scientist. The combination of experience and expertise is as powerful as it is unusual. Sadly, a second force in favor of this book is the temper of the times. The giddiness of the last century has been driven underground by the perils of this. Ro
The UN designated the decade 2005–2015 as the International Decade for Action – Water for Life. The move was initiated at the third World Water Forum in Kyoto, 2003, and it could prove the most significant and effective outcome of the triennial series of World Water For a yet. Its major aims are: (1) to promote efforts to fulfil recent international commitments, especially in the Millennium Goals, (2) to advance towards a truly integrated, int- national approach to sustainable water management, and (3) to put special emphasis on the role of women in these efforts. Even so, it faces tremendous and, as I write, increasing obstacles. The intense season of hurricanes and tropical storms in 2008 illustrated yet again not only the power of nature, but also the vulnerability of the poorer nations, like Haiti and Jamaica. New Orleans and Texas fared better, not because of the efforts of the International Decade for Natural Disasters (1990–2000) to increase preparedness, but more because the USA had learnt from its own experiences in Hurricane Katrina. The biggest obstacle of all is the burgeoning world population. It took off last century, but it is predicted to reach unimaginable heights this century: at least 10 billion by 2050, maybe 20 billion by 2100. Governments are powerless to halt it, even the Chinese. Achieving water security globally against this backdrop will be a Herculean task.
Non-state threats and actors have become key topics in contemporary international security as since the end of the Cold War the notion that state is the primary unit of interest in international security has increasingly been challenged. Statistics show that today many more people are killed by ethnic conflicts, HIV/AIDS or the proliferation of small arms than by international war. Moreover, non-state actors, such as non-governmental organizations, private military companies and international regimes, are progressively complementing or even replacing states in the provision of security. Suggesting that such developments can be understood as part of a shift from government to governance in international security, this book examines both how private actors have become one of the main sources of insecurity in the contemporary world and how non-state actors play a growing role in combating these threats.
Revised edition of International handbook of threat assessment, [2014]