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Albuquerque, Loayza, and Serven analyze the unparalleled increase in foreign direct investment to emerging market economies in the past 25 years. Using a large cross-country timeseries data set, the authors evaluate the dependence of foreign direct investment on global factors or worldwide sources of risk (that is, factors that drive foreign direct investment across several countries). They construct a globalization measure that equals the share of explained variation in direct investment attributable to global factors. The authors show that the globalization measure has increased steadily for industrial and developing countries. For the full sample of countries, the globalization measure rose eightfold from 1985 to 1999. Furthermore, in recent years developing countries' exposure to global factors has approached that of industrial countries, particularly for Latin America. Finally, the globalization measure correlates strongly with measures of capital market liberalization. Overall, the authors find strong support for the hypothesis of increased market integration which implies a greater role for worldwide sources of risk. They discuss the implications of the results for public policies regarding capital market liberalization and policies directed at attracting foreign investment.This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand international capital flows.
This paper is motivated by the unparalleled increase in foreign direct investment to emerging market economies of the last 25 years. Using a large cross-country time-series data set, we evaluate the dependence of foreign direct investment on global factors, or worldwide sources of risk (i.e., factors that drive foreign direct investment across several countries). We construct a globalization measure that equals the share of explained variation in direct investment attributable to global factors. We show that our globalization measure has increased steadily for developing and developed countries. For the full sample of countries, the globalization measure rose by over ten-fold from 1985 to 1999. Furthermore, in recent years developing countries' exposure to global factors has approached that of developed countries. Finally, our globalization measure correlates strongly with measures of capital market liberalization, supporting our hypothesis that increased market integration leads to a greater role for worldwide sources of risk. We discuss the implications of our results for public policies regarding capital market liberalization and policies directed at attracting foreign investment.
This paper discusses the extent to which national capital markets have become linked, and identifies several of the more important consequences of that increased degree of integration. Alternative approaches to the measurement of capital market integration are reviewed, including deviations from the law of one price, differences between actual and optimally diversified portfolios, correlations between domestic investment and domestic saving, and cross-country links in consumption behavior. Two recent episodes of large-scale international capital flows—namely, the turmoil in the European Monetary System in the fall of 1992, and the surge of capital inflows into Latin America during the last three years—are examined for insights into the workings of today’s global capital market. Finally, the paper offers some concluding remarks on the future development of international capital markets, on exchange rate management, on alternative approaches to living with larger and more influential financial markets, and on the financing of investment in the formerly centrally planned economies.
The free movement of capital within the EU is the laggard freedom, perhaps emanating from its ill-bounded contingent character as drafted in Article 67 of the original Treaty, or being ruled as not directly effective, or its close proximity to sovereignty and subsidiarity considerations. Clearly there must be significant operational inhibitors, as well as political considerations which have frustrated efforts (from Segre and Werner onwards) to remove the barriers and emancipate the flows of capital. Recent events however, serve to highlight the fragility of our predicament on the global financial stage with significant systemic risks emanating from the globalisation of capital and foreign direct investment. The Commissions answer is to centralise EU regulation with the introduction of new supranational authorities whose binding powers and remit is to drive forward the harmonisation of financial regulation and supervision. Perhaps we’ve heard this before? As the purposefully incendiary title suggests this dissertation shall investigate the importance of capital, its closeness to sovereignty, the previous EU regulatory experiences, the operative mechanisms necessary to regulate and supervise financial services, and utilise a hypothesis based approach to examine the renewed drive by the Commission to centralise the management of financial risk across the EU set against the key dimensions of certainty, coherency, competency, and sovereignty.
What accounts for variations in FDI flows from advanced to developing countries? How have FDI inflows explained cross-country growth experiences? In this paper we tackle both these questions empirically for a large sample of middle and low-income countries. Two key results emerge: (i) lower borrowing costs and positive real-side external factors were increasingly important drivers of FDI outflows to low-income countries in the pre-crisis period; (ii) economic fundamentals, the strength of economic reforms, and commitment to macroeconomic discipline are crucial determinants of the growth dividends of FDI. Our paper suggests that low-income countries can turn to domestic policy solutions to mitigate the adverse effects of a potential decline in FDI in the post-crisis world.
Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."
We use data on the sources of debt finance of U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates in 53 countries over the period 1983 to 2001 to examine the role of financial market development, and exposure to host country-specific risk on the financing choices of these affiliates. We find that total balance sheets are about four times as large as the cross-border component of foreign direct investment (FDI). The extent of financial leverage through local debt is positively related to host-country corporate tax rates, exchange rate variability, local currency-denominated sales, and financial development. Factors that further the role of local debt reduce that of parent company debt, and through this substitution overall leverage increases.
Analyzing the experience of Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 'Lessons from NAFTA' aims to provide guidance to Latin American and Caribbean countries considering free trade agreements with the United States. The authors conclude that the treaty raised external trade and foreign investment inflows and had a modest effect on Mexico's average income per person. It is likely that the treaty also helped achieve a modest reduction in poverty and an improvement in job quality. This book will be of interest to scholars and policymakers interested in international trade and development.
"Over the past two years, the world has seen turmoil in a relatively small segment of the U.S. credit markets morph into a severe global economic and financial crisis. Although aggressive monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and guarantee programs to shore up the banking industry have begun to stabilize financial markets and slow the pace of economic contraction, policy makers face an extended battle to revive the global economy. Going forward, national and international policy makers must support emerging signs of recovery with persistent, robust efforts to restore confidence in the financial system and transform the adverse feedback loop between the financial sector and the real economy into a positive one. With analysis and data extending from short-term bank lending to long-term bond issuance in both local and foreign currency, Global Development Finance 2009: Charting a Global Recovery is unique in its breadth of coverage of the trends and issues of fundamental importance to the financing of the developing world, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. The report is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community.
High-income economies appear to be finally turning the corner, contributing to a projected acceleration in global growth from 2.4 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent this year, 3.4 percent in 2015, and 3.5 percent in 2016. Overall, growth in developing countries is projected to pick up modestly from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent this year, 5.5 percent in 2015, and 5.7 percent in 2016. In the baseline, the withdrawal of quantitative easing (and its effect on the long end of U.S. interest rates) is assumed to follow a relatively slow orderly trajectory. If, however, the taper is met with an abrupt market adjustment, capital inflows could weaken sharply?placing renewed stress on vulnerable developing economies. In a scenario where long-term interest rates rise rapidly by 100 basis points, capital inflows could decline by as much as 50 percent for several quarters.