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Energy will be a most important topic in the 1980s. The speed with which a dozen or more trends will develop will be critical. Most of these trends are interdependent and interacting, and include: - the degree of constraint on oil and gas supplies exercised by the producers, whether inside or outside the OPEC, as they each attempt to match produc tion to their own energy needs and the funding of their own economic growth from exports, - the depth of the appreciation by industrialized countries that energy supplies will be tight and fossil fuels will be very expensive at least until the end of the century, - the actions taken by those countries to ameliorate this situation, in exploration for new oil and gas sources, in exploitation effort for new coal supplies, in acceptance ofthe need for expansion ofnuclear energy supplies, - the balancingofenergy supply and demand in centrally-planned economies, - the rate ofdevelopment within developing countries, including China, - the development and adoption ofunconventional energy sources, - the adaptation ofthe world fmancial system to new situations. These examples highlight some of the continuing problems in the energy field. These problems will be discussed in all sorts ofmeetings of all sorts ofpeople in all sorts of places and through all forms of the communication media. Other trends will materialize and take the centre of the stage, often only for a short time.
From its very beginnings, the Conservation Commission has devoted a large part of its research to long-term energy analyses. Following the first oil shock, it undertook its earliest work on the world demand-supply equilib rium for the period 2000-2020, the results of which were presented to the 10th Congress of the Conference at Istanbul in 1977. Since then, its analyses have become ever deeper, ever more various. In 1980, the stress was on the future for the Third World, while in 1983, its forecasts set out a new panorama for the world and for the main regions in the period 2000-2020. Therefore, what was more natural than that the Conservation Commission should bring its interest to bear on one of the major aspects of energy strategy: the comparison of future needs not merely with the fluctuations of supply but also with stocks of reserves. The problem, of course, had not been entirely ignored, but the field tended to be one in which intuitions and sketchy proofs were more readily available than systematic and comprehen sive analysis.