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With contributions from leading scholars, this book examines the European Union in a theoretically informed, empirically grounded manner. The book begins by exploring the evolving nature of the European polity and its capacity for change. This is the fifth volume in the biannual series State of the European Union produced under the auspices of the American European Community Studies Association (ECSA).
Leading scholars and policy makers examine the challenges that are facing economic policies in the EMU today.
At the end of the 20th century, mainstream economics was based on theories which viewed capitalism as a self-regulating system, whereby crises come about due to external shocks and would be automatically corrected by the price mechanism if it was flexible enough. Post-Keynesian economists, however, consider that the business cycle and the crises are endogenously generated. They recommend active policies as a response, though the remedies may be worse than the illness if they are not applied at the right moment and in the right proportions. The first great recession of the 21st century offers post-Keynesian economists an opportunity to prove the realism of their models. It is also a chance to make theoretical improvements, to abandon some hypotheses and to introduce new ones. This book, from a top group of international economists, analyzes the causes, consequences and evolution of the crisis from a variety of post-Keynesian perspectives. It then presents a case for realistic and essential remedies. The book is both theoretical and applied, with a global reach and a particular focus on the European debt crisis.
Among member states, many structural weaknesses were exposed when economic performance declined significantly and financial markets became more discerning. This book focuses on the analytical underpinnings of real-time policy advice given to euro area policymakers during four cycles of the IMF’s annual Article IV consultations (2012–15) with euro area authorities.
This book addresses topics and issues of high relevance to the widely shared desire to promote inclusive growth, sustainability, and innovation within a context of global governance. It is based on the XXXth Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar, where leading experts met to discuss the latest research and thinking on different aspects of globalization, trade, inequalities, growth imbalances, green technologies, the labor market, and financial systems. The aim is to stimulate new responses and possible solutions to a variety of well-recognized problems, including low growth in real wages, stagnating productivity, and growing disparities in income. Some of these problems are especially evident in Europe, where austerity policies have failed to deliver adequate growth and investment. However, while a number of the contributions focus on aspects of particular importance to Europe, others look further afield, for example to the scope for innovation in Africa and to experiences with quantitative easing in Japan. The book will be of wide interest to academics, researchers, policy makers, and practitioners.
This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.
The Uses of Social Investment provides the first study of the welfare state, under the new post-crisis austerity context and associated crisis management politics, to take stock of the limits and potential of social investment. It surveys the emergence, diffusion, limits, merits, and politicsof social investment as the welfare policy paradigm for the 21st century, seen through the lens of the life-course contingencies of the competitive knowledge economy and modern family-hood.Featuring contributions from leading scholars in the field, the volume revisits the intellectual roots and normative foundations of social investment, surveys the criticisms that have leveled against the social investment perspective in theory and policy practice, and presents empirical evidence ofsocial investment progress together with novel research methodologies for assessing socioeconomic "rates of return" on social investment. Given the progressive, admittedly uneven, diffusion of the social investment policy priorities across the globe, the volume seeks to address the pressingpolitical question as to whether the social investment turn is able to withstand the fiscal austerity backlash that has re-emerged in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Comparing Fiscal Federalism investigates intergovernmental financial relations and the current de jure and de facto allocation of financial and fiscal powers in compound states from a comparative and interdisciplinary perspective. The volume combines theoretical approaches with case studies and involves scholars from various disciplines, in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of different approaches, developments and trends. This includes outlining fiscal federalism’s basic principles and overall frameworks, investigating current constitutional/legislative settings and how financial systems function, as well as zooming in on a selection of emerging issues in financial and fiscal relations. The single chapters are based on comparative investigations under the umbrella of a broad definition of fiscal federalism that includes all varieties of federal systems.
Inflation targeting lite (ITL) countries float their exchange rate and announce an inflation target, but are not able to maintain the inflation target as the foremost policy objective. This paper identifies 19 emerging market countries as practitioners of ITL. They seem to focus mainly on bringing inflation into the single digits and maintaining financial stability. ITL can be viewed as a transitional regime aimed at buying time for the implementation of the structural reforms needed for a single credible nominal anchor. The important policy challenges for an ITL central bank include whether or not to precommit to a single anchor.