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The global economic and financial crisis that started in 2007 exposed serious flaws in the euro's original design. This report examines why Europe's economic and monetary union was so badly affected by the crisis, and assesses whether further changes need to be made to the structure of economic governance that underpins it. A Chatham House, Elcano and AREL Report
The European Union seems incapable of undertaking economic reforms and defining its place in the world. Public apathy towards the EU is also increasing, as citizens feel isolated from the institutions in Brussels and see no way to influence European level decisions. Taking a diagnosis and cure approach to the EU's difficulties, Simon Hix tackles these problems with distinct clarity and open-mindedness. What the EU needs, Hix contends, is more open political competition. This would promote policy innovation, foster coalitions across the institutions, provide incentives for the media to cover developments in Brussels, and enable citizens to identify who governs in the EU and to take sides in policy debates. The EU is ready for this new challenge. The institutional reforms since the 1980s have transformed the EU into a more competitive polity, and political battles and coalitions are developing inside and between the European Parliament, the Council, and the Commission. This emerging politics should be more central to the Brussels policy process, with clearer coalitions and identifiable winners and losers, at least in the short term. The risks are low because the EU has multiple checks-and-balances. Yet, the potential benefits are high, as more open politics could enable the EU to overcome policy gridlock, rebuild public support, and reduce the democratic deficit. This indispensable book will be of great interest to students of the European politics, scholars, policy makers and anyone concerned with the future of the European Union.
How philosophical differences between Eurozone nations led to the Euro crisis—and where to go from here Why is Europe’s great monetary endeavor, the Euro, in trouble? A string of economic difficulties in Eurozone nations has left observers wondering whether the currency union can survive. In this book, Markus Brunnermeier, Harold James, and Jean-Pierre Landau argue that the core problem with the Euro lies in the philosophical differences between the founding countries of the Eurozone, particularly Germany and France. But the authors also show how these seemingly incompatible differences can be reconciled to ensure Europe’s survival. Weaving together economic analysis and historical reflection, The Euro and the Battle of Ideas provides a forensic investigation and a road map for Europe’s future.
From Jens Nordvig--named the #1 currency strategist in the 2013 Institutional Investor survey What does the crisis in the Eurozone mean for our markets—and how can you protect your portfolio against crises in Europe? Little has been written about the instability of the Euro, but it’s a very real threat to investors worldwide, as well as to the global economy. Swings in global asset markets have been increasingly driven by developments in Europe. This is something new: in the past, Europe was one of the most stable parts of the global economy, and its typically minor economic fluctuations would have little bearing on US equity markets. Now, Europe's economic and political developments will be a persistent source of shocks for global financial markets. As an investor, you need a roadmap. This book is that roadmap. The Fall of the Euro describes the Eurozone’s unstable equilibrium and explains why a breakup of the Eurozone is still a possibility. Nomura's global head of currency strategy and one of the world's top experts on the Euro, Jens Nordvig gives us a detailed and fascinating explanation of this precarious situation, providing the information, insight, and authoritative analysis you need to make the wisest investment decisions possible. A riveting analysis of one of the most important currencies in the world--certainly the most unstable of the major currencies--The Fall of the Euro covers: The history of the Euro--and how it differs from other global currencies The problematic origins of the Euro--which is grounded more in politics than economics How politics will affect the next crisis in the Eurozone--and what we can do about it What-if scenarios of Eurozone breakup possibilities--with insights that will surprise you The original version of the Euro was not resilient enough to survive a major crisis. European policymakers are attempting to construct a new version of the currency, but its specific form remains highly uncertain. Will it be a hard currency? Will it be a soft currency? Or will it break up? If the path ahead involves a disorderly breakup of the Eurozone, the instability to come will be much more intense than what we have seen to date. Go beyond the rhetoric of the politicians and the journalists who write about them and get a financial expert's assessment of the real issues at hand. Jens Nordvig explains the state of the Euro's present position in the global economy with levels of objectivity and expertise you will find nowhere else. The Fall of the Euro gives you the critical information you need to prepare your investments before the next crisis in the Eurozone--which is, in Nordvig's view, inevitable. Praise for The Fall of the Euro "Nordvig brings a keen insight into markets and economics that he ably combines with a brisk, no-nonsense narrative. This is essential reading for market players, investors, and prognosticators of the future of the eurozone." -- Richard Clarida, C. Lowell Harriss Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Columbia University; Global Strategic Advisor, Pimco "Jens Nordvig's book artfully combines a master economist's framework, a seasoned market participant's advice, an historian's far-reaching perspective, and a European citizen’s passionate case for an open discussion of the way forward for the world's largest economic bloc." -- Scott Bessent, Chief Investment Officer, Soros Fund Management LLC "Jens Nordvig was one of the first to analyze the economic, legal, and political consequences of the euro splitting asunder. Whether or not you share his pessimism about the future of the euro project, Nordvig's guide to the crisis is a compelling and essential read." -- Gavyn Davies, Chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management LLP, former Goldman Sachs Chief Economist "In this bold, highly readable book, Jens Nordvig beautifully highlights the tensions between the politics and the economics that are at the heart of the euro crisis. A must read for anyone who cares about the future of Europe." -- Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business "I learned much from The Fall of the Euro and I thoroughly recommend it." -- Simon Wolfson, CEO of Next plc and sponsor of the Wolfson Economics Prize "Needs to be read by all those demanding brave policy from Europe's timid elite." -- Tom Keene, Editor at Large, Bloomberg Television & Radio; Host of Bloomberg Surveillance
For many observers, the European Union is mired in a deep crisis. Between sluggish growth; political turmoil following a decade of austerity politics; Brexit; and the rise of Asian influence, the EU is seen as a declining power on the world stage. Columbia Law professor Anu Bradford argues the opposite in her important new book The Brussels Effect: the EU remains an influential superpower that shapes the world in its image. By promulgating regulations that shape the international business environment, elevating standards worldwide, and leading to a notable Europeanization of many important aspects of global commerce, the EU has managed to shape policy in areas such as data privacy, consumer health and safety, environmental protection, antitrust, and online hate speech. And in contrast to how superpowers wield their global influence, the Brussels Effect - a phrase first coined by Bradford in 2012- absolves the EU from playing a direct role in imposing standards, as market forces alone are often sufficient as multinational companies voluntarily extend the EU rule to govern their global operations. The Brussels Effect shows how the EU has acquired such power, why multinational companies use EU standards as global standards, and why the EU's role as the world's regulator is likely to outlive its gradual economic decline, extending the EU's influence long into the future.
Athens, Greece—May Day 2010. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) were putting together the final details of a $100 billion euro rescue package for the country. The Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, had agreed to a savage package of “austerity measures” involving cuts in public spending and lower salaries and pensions. Outside, riot police were deployed as protestors gathered to fight the austerity program. A country with a history of revolution and dictatorship hovered on the brink of collapse—with the world’s financial markets watching to see if the deal cobbled together would be enough to both calm the markets and rescue the Greek economy, and with it the euro, from oblivion. In Bust: Greece, the Euro, and the Sovereign Debt Crisis, leading market commentator Matthew Lynn blends financial history, politics, and current affairs to tell the story of how one nation rode the wave of economic prosperity and brought a continent, a currency, and, potentially, the global financial system to its knees. Bust is a story of government deceit, unfettered spending, and cheap borrowing: a tale of financial folly to rank alongside the greatest in history. It charts Greece’s rise, and spectacular fall from grace, but it also explores the global repercussions of a financial disaster that has only just begun. It explains how the Greek debt crisis spread like wildfire through the rest of Europe, hitting Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain, and ultimately provoking a crisis that brought the euro to the edge of collapse. And it argues that the Greek crisis is just the start of a decade of financial turmoil that will eventually force the break up of the euro, and a massive retrenchment in the living standards of all the developed economies. Written in a lively and entertaining style, Bust: Greece, the Euro, and the Sovereign Debt Crisis is an engaging and informative account of a country gone wrong and a must-read for anyone interested in world events and global economics.
The euro's life, while only slightly more than a decade long, has been riddled by a series of challenges and crises. The disparity between the prosperous Northern countries of Germany and France and the plummeting Southern countries, including Italy and Greece, has exacerbated problems withinthe political and economic union of the Eurozone. The North, especially Germany, has debated where to draw the line between doing whatever is necessary to save the common currency and what they have viewed as a charity bailout of countries who flouted the rules for a decade and suffered predictableconsequences. Meanwhile, Southern countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece have grown increasingly bitter at the attitudes of their partners to the North. Amidst loud and frequent debates, solutions including routes for increased integration and punitive policies and reforms have been enacted anddiscarded to a limited degree of success. The struggles facing this monetary union continue to unfold even today.The Euro Crisis and Its Aftermath was written to inform readers about the history of this enduring European crisis and the alternative proposals for ending it. In four parts, Jean Pisani-Ferry explains the origins of the European currency, the build-up of imbalances and oversights that led to thecrisis, the choices European policymakers have both addressed and ignored since 2010, the evolution of the policy agenda, and possible options for the future. The book is as much of an informative and analytical history as it is a prescriptive solution for a more prosperous future world economy.Rather than putting forth and supporting a thesis, Pisani-Ferry helps readers understand the past and present of the euro crisis and form their own opinions about potential solutions. It has grown out of his book Le Reveil des Demons published in France in 2011. The content has been updatedextensively to cover the events of the past few years and augmented to better explain the Eurozone to a global audience. This book is not intended to reach only economists, as time has long passed since European monetary unification was a debate limited to academics. This book is also for the policymakers searching for solutions, citizens of Europe enduring the consequences, and the international community that has felt the effects of an unstable Eurozone.
Europe’s banking system is weighed down by high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which are holding down credit growth and economic activity. This discussion note uses a new survey of European country authorities and banks to examine the structural obstacles that discourage banks from addressing their problem loans. A three pillared strategy is advocated to remedy the situation, comprising: (i) tightened supervisory policies, (ii) insolvency reforms, and (iii) the development of distressed debt markets.
What is the impact of three decades of neoliberal narratives and policies on communities and individual lives? What are the sources of social resilience? This book offers a sweeping assessment of the effects of neoliberalism, the dominant feature of our times. It analyzes the ideology in unusually wide-ranging terms as a movement that not only opened markets but also introduced new logics into social life, integrating macro-level analyses of the ways in which neoliberal narratives made their way into international policy regimes with micro-level analyses of the ways in which individuals responded to the challenges of the neoliberal era. The product of ten years of collaboration among a distinguished group of scholars, it integrates institutional and cultural analysis in new ways to understand neoliberalism as a syncretic social process and to explore the sources of social resilience across communities in the developed and developing worlds.