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Winner, 2023 William James Book Award, American Psychological Association Division 1 in General Psychology Most of us, no matter how rational we think we are, have a lucky charm, a good-luck ritual, or some other custom we follow in the hope that it will lead to a good result. Is the idea of luckiness just a way in which we try to impose order on chaos? Do we live in a world of flukes and coincidences, good and bad breaks, with outcomes as random as a roll of the dice—or can our beliefs help change our luck? What Are the Chances? reveals how psychology and neuroscience explain the significance of the idea of luck. Barbara Blatchley explores how people react to random events in a range of circumstances, examining the evidence that the belief in luck helps us cope with a lack of control. She tells the stories of lucky and unlucky people—who won the lottery multiple times, survived seven brushes with death, or found an apparently cursed Neanderthal mummy—as well as the accidental discoveries that fundamentally changed what we know about the brain. Blatchley considers our frequent misunderstanding of randomness, the history of luckiness in different cultures and religions, the surprising benefits of magical thinking, and many other topics. Offering a new view of how the brain handles the unexpected, What Are the Chances? shows why an arguably irrational belief can—fingers crossed—help us as we struggle with an unpredictable world.
Roulette wheels and the plague -- Surely something's wrong with you -- The life table : you can bet on it! -- The rarest events -- The waiting game -- Stockbrokers and climate change.
“[Russo’s] first novel in ten years hits the ball out of the park. . . . You’ll lap up this gripping, wise, and wonderful summer treat.” —The Boston Globe “A cascade of charm. . . . Russo is an undeniably endearing writer, and chances are this story will draw you back to the most consequential moments in your own life.”—The Washington Post One beautiful September day, three men in their late sixties convene on Martha's Vineyard, friends ever since meeting in college in the sixties. They couldn't have been more different then, or even today—Lincoln's a commercial real estate broker, Teddy a tiny-press publisher, and Mickey is a musician beyond his rockin' age. But each man holds his own secrets, in addition to the monumental mystery that none of them has ever stopped puzzling over since a Memorial Day weekend right here on the Vineyard in 1971. Now, forty-five years later, three lives and that of a significant other are put on displaywhile the distant past confounds the present ina relentless squall of surprise and discovery. Shot through with Russo's trademark comedy and humanity, Chances Are . . . introduces a new level of suspense and menace that will quicken the reader's heartbeat throughout this absorbing saga.
Country music legend Kenny Rogers teams up with Spur Award–winning author Mike Blakely for a rousing tale set in the heyday of Nashville in What Are the Chances. It's 1975, and Ronnie Breed's chart-topping rock band has just self-destructed in a recording studio fistfight. Ronnie makes a bold decision—return home to Texas and reinvent himself as a solo act. Enter Dan Campbell, Ronnie's cousin, who recruits Ronnie for a new kind of venture. Dan, who always had a penchant for wild schemes, wants to televise a Texas Hold 'Em tournament...and Ronnie could never say no to his cousin Dan. As celebrity spokesman for the poker tournament, Ronnie soon finds himself recruiting world-class gamblers in illegal card games while trying to put together a new country band and win a Nashville recording contract—not to mention trying to avoid falling head-over-heels in love with his new manager, Dorothy. But when things start to get weird—hidden cameras, secret high-stakes side-bets, a visit from the FBI—it seems that Dan's poker tournament may be a façade for something much bigger and much more dangerous. Ronnie begins to wonder if he will end up with the girl of his dreams in the Country Music Hall of Fame, or broke and lonely in some prison cell. What are the chances? At the Publisher's request, this title is being sold without Digital Rights Management Software (DRM) applied.
"What are the odds against winning the Lotto, The Weakest Link, or Who Wants to be a Millionaire? The answer lies in the science of probability, yet many of us are unaware of how this science works. Every day, people make judgements on a wide variety of situations where chance plays a role, including buying insurance, betting on horse-racing, following medical advice - even carrying an umbrella. In Taking Chances, John Haigh guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better-informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on top television shows, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers."--BOOK JACKET.
Chances Are is the first book to make statistics accessible to everyone, regardless of how much math you remember from school.
A compelling journey through history, mathematics, and philosophy, charting humanity’s struggle against randomness Our lives are played out in the arena of chance. However little we recognize it in our day-to-day existence, we are always riding the odds, seeking out certainty but settling—reluctantly—for likelihood, building our beliefs on the shadowy props of probability. Chances Are is the story of man’s millennia-long search for the tools to manage the recurrent but unpredictable—to help us prevent, or at least mitigate, the seemingly random blows of disaster, disease, and injustice. In these pages, we meet the brilliant individuals who developed the first abstract formulations of probability, as well as the intrepid visionaries who recognized their practical applications—from gamblers to military strategists to meteorologists to medical researchers, from blackjack to our own mortality.
A helpful guide for understanding the mathematical concepts and real-world applications of probability and statistics, including classroom tips, common terms such as outliers, and exercises to encourage hands-on practice.
Do you avoid teaching probability and statistics because the subjects seem confusing and complex? Are you less than sure about your knowledge of the topics? Let Chances Are . . . take you and your students on a fun and exciting mathematical journey none of you will ever forget! Filled with easy-to-understand explanations and creative activities, this book offers teachers a simple method for teaching probability and statistics in an enjoyable way. This book can serve as an introduction for any beginner, from gifted and advanced students in upper elementary school, to high school students needing enrichment or preparation for Advanced Placement Statistics or future college courses. From helping to win a card game, to making life-or-death medical decisions, the uses of probability and statistics are virtually endless. For teachers of elementary students, the book offers simple, hands-on lessons and activities about probability and basic statistics. For teachers of older students, advanced statistical concepts are discussed and activities are provided. Reviewers have found the book's level to be appropriate for a wide range of ages, from fourth graders to post-secondary students.
Anders Engberg-Pedersen shows how the Napoleonic Wars inspired a new discourse on knowledge in the West. Soldiers returning from battle were forced to reconsider what it is possible to know and how decisions are made in a fog of imperfect knowledge. Chance no longer appeared exceptional but normative—a prism for understanding the modern world.