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This paper was prepared for presentation at the eighty-eighth annual meeting of the American Economics Association in Dallas, Texas, 30 December 1975. It summarizes research that is reported in detail in the following three reports: Welfare Caseload Dynamics in New York City, The Rand Corporation, R-1441-NYC/OPR-R-14, 1974; Welfare Case Turnover in 1972, NYC Human Resources Administration, Office of Policy Research, OPR-R-12, 1974; and Prediction of the Size and Cost of the New York City Welfare Caseload in 1975, the Rand Corporation, forthcoming.