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Over the past two decades, Mexico has hedged oil price risk through the purchase of put options. We examine the resulting welfare gains using a standard sovereign default model calibrated to Mexican data. We show that hedging increases welfare by reducing income volatility and reducing risk spreads on sovereign debt. We find welfare gains equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 0.44 percent with 90 percent of these gains stemming from lower risk spreads.
"After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice."
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
We study a model of equilibrium sovereign default in which the government issues cocos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments when the government faces liquidity shocks in the form of an increase of the bondholders' risk aversion. We find that in spite of reducing the frequency of defaults triggered by liquidity shocks, introducing cocos increases the overall default frequency. By mitigating concerns about liquidity, cocos make indebtedness and default risk more attractive for the government. In contrast, cocos that stipulate debt forgiveness when the government faces the shock, achieve larger welfare gains by reducing default risk.
The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.
Global growth is projected to be slightly faster in 2020 than the post-crisis low registered last year. While growth could be stronger if reduced trade tensions lead to a sustained reduction in uncertainty, the balance of risks to the outlook is to the downside. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is also expected to remain subdued, continuing a decade of disappointing outcomes. A steep and widespread productivity growth slowdown has been underway in these economies since the global financial crisis, despite the largest, fastest, and most broad-based accumulation of debt since the 1970s. In addition, many emerging market and developing economies, including low-income countries, face the challenge of phasing out price controls that impose heavy fiscal cost and dampen investment. These circumstances add urgency to the need to implement measures to rebuild macroeconomic policy space and to undertake reforms to rekindle productivity growth. These efforts need to be supplemented by policies to promote inclusive and sustainable long-term growth and accelerate poverty alleviation. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, whereas the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
Mexico has large extractive industries and it traditionally has raised sizable fiscal revenues from the oil and gas sector. A confluence of factors—elevated commodity prices, financial challenges of the state-owned oil company Pemex, and revenue needs for financing social and public investment spending over the medium term—suggest that a review of Mexico’s taxation regimes for natural resources would be opportune, against the backdrop of a comprehensive approach to tackling Mexico’s challenges. This paper identifies opportunities for redesigning mining taxation to increase somewhat the revenue intake while maintaining the favorable investment profile of the sector. It also discusses recent reforms to the oil and gas fiscal regime and future reform considerations, with attention to the attractiveness of investment on commercial terms—an issue that should be placed in the context of an overall reform of Pemex’s business strategy and possibly of the energy sector more generally.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Why has an economy that has done so many things right failed to grow fast? Under-Rewarded Efforts traces Mexico’s disappointing growth to flawed microeconomic policies that have suppressed productivity growth and nullified the expected benefits of the country’s reform efforts. Fast growth will not occur doing more of the same or focusing on issues that may be key bottlenecks to productivity growth elsewhere, but not in Mexico. It will only result from inclusive institutions that effectively protect workers against risks, redistribute towards those in need, and simultaneously align entrepreneurs’ and workers’ incentives to raise productivity.
The global economy is in a broad-based cyclical recovery. Investment, manufacturing and trade are on the rebound. Financing conditions are benign, monetary policies are generally accommodative, and the worst impacts of the recent commodity price collapse have begun to dissipate. However, the global economic outlook remains clouded by a number of risks. These include the possibility of financial market disruptions, rising protectionist sentiment, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is evidence of subdued productivity and slowing potential growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the causes of the broad-based slowing of potential growth and suggests remedies. The report also contains Special Focus sections on the impact of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse and the relationship between education demographics and global inequality. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.