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The paper develops a model of inflationary finance that defines the fiscal deficit as a function of the virtual deficit—a deficit that would be observed if inflation were zero. It studies the negative relationship between the inflation rate and real government expenditures—the Patinkin effect. The model outperforms others in explaining four-digit inflation rates that never explode into hyperinflation. It also explains how apparently expansionist fiscal policies end in real deficits that are small and compatible with the small amount of seigniorage that can be collected at high inflation rates. Finally, it applies the model to the case of Brazil.
The paper develops a model of inflationary finance that defines the fiscal deficit as a function of the virtual deficit a deficit that would be observed if inflation were zero. It studies the negative relationship between the inflation rate and real government expenditures the Patinkin effect. The model outperforms others in explaining four-digit inflation rates that never explode into hyperinflation. It also explains how apparently expansionist fiscal policies end in real deficits that are small and compatible with the small amount of seigniorage that can be collected at high inflation rates. Finally, it applies the model to the case of Brazil.
This paper describes the issue of corruption around the world. The paper surveys and discusses issues related to the causes, consequences, and scope of corruption, and possible corrective actions. It emphasizes the costs of corruption in terms of economic growth. It also emphasizes that the fight against corruption may not be cheap and cannot be independent from the reform of the state. If certain reforms are not made, corruption is likely to continue to be a problem regardless of actions directly aimed at curtailing it.
This paper analyzes contagion and volatility with imperfect credit markets. The paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of shocks impinging on the economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model in which domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Financial spreads depend on a markup that compensates lenders, in particular, for the expected cost of contract enforcement. Higher volatility increases financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital.
Growth and Sustainability in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa is based on the proceedings of a conference, organised by the OECD, on the growth performance of these large emerging-market economies. The book brings together contributions from distinguished policy makers and scholars.
Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes: Options for the Middle East examines some of the most pressing issues facing policymakers today. The authors offer answers to such questions as: Are the choices of exchange rate regime limited to hard fixing or fully floating? Are capital flight and banking crises avoidable? What is the best way to coordinate monetary and fiscal policies? The answers to these questions draw on the vast literature available on these topics as well as the lessons learned from recent crises, especially in East Asia and Latin America. Beside its broad coverage, this volume includes rich analyses on specific countries of the Middle East. It merits a wide readership, but policymakers seeking to achieve macroeconomic stability and growth will find it particularly useful.
Most of the analysis of Latin American exchange rate problems and policies has concentrated on the economic side of things. This volume instead examines the politics of exchange rate management in four nations that had very different approaches and results. Although the Mexican peso crash, Brazil's currency crisis, Argentina's maintenance of a currency board, and Venezuelan policy responses to the shocks of 1997-98 have had major international financial ramifications, the origins and outcomes of these dramatic events have yet to be analyzed in a single volume. The contributors tie these policy episodes together using solid comparative analysis, in order to better inform the policy debate on these issues.
Abstract: "Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored, Herrera identifies other sources of uncertainty emanating from the policymaking framework: fiscal policy was not responsive to the shocks, public debt instruments were used with several objectives (to stabilize the currency and to lengthen maturity) and there was inadequate supervision of agents holding public debt. Most of the flaws have been fixed following the crisis: * The primary fiscal balance has been increased, sending the signal that it is a flexible instrument that will be used to ensure commitment of the sovereign to honor its obligations. * The central bank formally transferred to the Treasury the remaining debt-issuance functions, facilitating a more adequate balancing of different risks involved in debt management. * Mutual funds' public debt holdings are better regulated, ensuring that end-investors have the proper information to assess the risk of the institutions in which they invest. This paper--a product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network--is part of a larger effort in the network to disseminate country experiences in the design of policymaking frameworks that facilitate adjustment of the economy to external shocks"--World Bank web site.
Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.