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In 1991 "Communism" collapsed. The cold war was over and the West had won. Whole cities, Moscow, St Petersburg, Warsaw, Beijing, Budapest and Bucharest, whole countries indeed, were privatised for nothing or next to nothing. This was probably the greatest expansion of the world market in history. And yet, according to national income measurements of the CIA, OECD, World Bank and IMF, this gigantic expansion of market production, led to a decline in market production in the very countries where it was introduced. How to explain this paradox? This book traces the origin of the West’s national income measurements, from their origin in the 1923/4 Balance developed in the USSR, to the USA in the early 1930s via two Soviet exiles, Simon Kuznets and Wassily Leontief, and then back to the USSR again, after a vigorous debate, through a protégé of Kuznets, Abram Bergson. The AFC imputed national incomes to a centrally planned economy, based on physical not income measurements. This book provides a detailed assessment of the failure of the AFC method to measure the real growth of actual market production during the transition period. This book provides a detailed account of the application of national income measurements to the centrally planned economies. It assesses all of the major contributors to this debate, including Colin Clark, Naum Jasny, Alexander Gerschenkron, G.Warren Nutter and Abram Bergson. It provides a new much higher, estimate of the expansion of market production during the transition period, based on an estimate of the actual growth of real market production. It discusses the very significant implications of this re-estimate for contemporary theories of globalisation.
The collection of essays presented in this volume grew out of a series of lec tures given at the University of North Carolina during the academic year 1976-1977. The series was sponsored by the Soviet and East European Stud ies Program, which I chaired at the time, and the Curriculum of Peace, War and Defense, headed by James Leutze. In the ensuing years almost all the manuscripts have been redrafted at frequent intervals to reflect the changing state of knowledge in each respective discipline. The final version of the text that appears here is therefore the outcome of a long developmen tal process. It is up to date and embodies our individual views on world communism at the present juncture. Although the recent Soviet invasion of Afghanistan occurred shortly after this volume was completed, that event has not impaired the book's timeliness. The findings of Rosefielde, Lee, Valenta, and Leutze all point toward a resurgence of Soviet expansionism, and Parker explicitly predicted the Afghan invasion in the first draft of his essay, June 1978 (see p. 32).
As far as I know, relatively little attention has been devoted in the West to the study of various financial problems in the USSR. Among 1 the works I have seen are Gallik et aI. , The Soviet, 1968 -evidently the most important work on this theme; Powell, "Monetary," 1972, in which the statistics of monetary circulation in the USSR are examin ed; Laulan, Banking, 1973, in which some of the questions I examine are also addressed; and CIA, The Soviet, 1977, which is about an analysis of the budget. Moreover, many specialists have turned to the analysis of the expenditures of the budget in an attempt to determine the amount of financing of military expenditures-for example, Holzman, Financial, 1975. Due to the scarcity of data a large number of important problems have remained unstudied in all these works. One of these is the following. If we believe official Soviet statistics, the state budget of the USSR regularly comes out with an excess of revenues over expendi tures; each year a "budget profit" is formed. This in itself already seems quite strange. We all know that the Soviet economy, although it developed quite rapidly (especially in the past), has experienced constant and serious difficulties; we know that the plans are rarely fulfilled and that there were years of great crop failures.
Analysts attempting to assess economic growth in revolutionary Cuba are faced with two formidable obstacles: (1) official macroeconomic indicators published by the government are scarce and sometimes inconsistent because of frequent changes in the method of calculation; and (2) these indicators are not compatible with those produced by market economies because of differences in national income concepts. Because of these obstacles, it is difficult to analyze the performance of Cuba’s economy over time and to compare its economic performance directly with that of other nations. Using a variant of the method developed by Abram Bergson to estimate the growth rates of the Soviet Union and subsequently applied to centrally planned economies in Eastern Europe, Jorge Perez-López has estimated the growth rate of the Cuban economy in real terms for the 1965–1982 period. His estimated indexes suggest that the Cuban economy expanded at a considerably slower pace than would be implied by official data. By constructing yardsticks of economic performance for revolutionary Cuba that are compatible with those used by Western nations, Perez-López provides for the first time a basis for analyzing the real growth of the Cuban economy during the revolutionary period.
The Soviet Economy (1983) examines the long-term prospective growth of the USSR’s economy. It looks at the Soviet economy’s growth process at an advanced stage of development, and assesses how it would evolve in the period ahead. Various growth plans had made large advances to the state-planned economy, but by the 1980s this growth had slowed.
Following Ronald Reagan's statement to the Soviet press that living standards in the USSR were a third of that in the USA, this book was written to examine the CIA study upon which his statement was based. The author also analyzes the Soviet economy and reveals how Soviets really live.