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Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers," warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history. In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. "The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence-without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan." "We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland." "If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios," the authors add, "they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress." But, they observe, "the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity. It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it." Proposing "a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years," the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan's status; work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. "The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president," the authors conclude.
This book examines changes in Taiwan’s policies toward Mainland China under former Republic of China (ROC) President Ma Ying-jeou (2008-16) and considers their implications for US policy toward the Taiwan Strait. In recent years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s increasingly assertive foreign policy behaviors have heightened tensions with its regional neighbors as well as the United States. However, under the Kuomintang (KMT) administration of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan discounted Beijing’s coercion and pursued rapprochement on the basis of the “1992 consensus,” which was a tacit agreement reached between the KMT and Chinese Communist Party in 1992 that both Taiwan and the mainland belong to one China though that “China” is subjected to either side's different interpretations. The author of this volume analyzes why Taipei underreacted towards the security challenges posed by the PRC and chartered policies that sometimes went against the interests of Washington and its allies in the Asia-Pacific. The KMT was pushing for nation-building initiatives to rejuvenate the ROC’s “one China” ruling legitimacy and to supplant pro-independence forces within Taiwan. The island’s deeply fragmented domestic politics and partisanship have led policy elites to choose suboptimal strategy and, thereby, weakening its security position. The implications from this study are equally applicable to Taiwan’s newly elected Democratic Progressive Party government that has taken off ice in 2016.
Taiwan's Relations with Mainland China is the first book to deal with the role of Taiwan’s leadership politics in the development of Taiwan’s mainland policy and the consequences for US-Taiwan relations.
At publication date, a free ebook version of this title will be available through Luminos, University of California Press’s Open Access publishing program. Visit www.luminosoa.org to learn more. China’s relation to Taiwan has been in constant contention since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in October 1949 and the creation of the defeated Kuomintang (KMT) exile regime on the island two months later. The island’s autonomous sovereignty has continually been challenged, initially because of the KMT’s insistence that it continue to represent not just Taiwan but all of China—and later because Taiwan refused to cede sovereignty to the then-dominant power that had arisen on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. One thing that makes Taiwan so politically difficult and yet so intellectually fascinating is that it ­­is not merely a security problem, but a ganglion of interrelated puzzles. The optimistic hope of the Ma Ying-jeou administration for a new era of peace and cooperation foundered on a landslide victory by the Democratic Progressive Party, which has made clear its intent to distance Taiwan from China’s political embrace. The Taiwanese are now waiting with bated breath as the relationship tautens. Why did détente fail, and what chance does Taiwan have without it? Contributors to this volume focus on three aspects of the evolving quandary: nationalistic identity, social economy, and political strategy.
"Focuses on cross-Strait relations during Ma Ying-jeou's first term, assessing the impact of stabilization on economics, politics, and security and the implications for resolution of Taiwan and China's fundamental dispute. Examines how Taiwan can strengthen itself; how China can promote a mutually acceptable outcome; and how Washington can protect its interests in South Asia"--Provided by publisher.
One issue could lead to a disastrous war between the United States and China: Taiwan. A growing number of Taiwanese want independence for their island and regard mainland China as an alien nation. Mainland Chinese consider Taiwan a province that was stolen from China more than a century ago, and their patience about getting it back is wearing thin. Washington officially endorses a "one China" policy but also sells arms to Taiwan and maintains an implicit pledge to defend it from attack. That vague, muddled policy invites miscalculation by Taiwan or China or both. The three parties are on a collision course, and unless something dramatic changes, an armed conflict is virtually inevitable within a decade. Although there is still time to avert a calamity, time is running out. In this book, Carpenter tells the reader what the U.S. must do quickly to avoid being dragged into war.
Despite apparently consistent statements in 4 decades, the U.S. ¿one China¿ policy concerning Taiwan remains somewhat ambiguous and subject to different interpretations. Apart from questions about what the ¿one China¿ policy entails, issues have arisen about whether U.S. Presidents have stated clear positions and have changed or should change policy, affecting U.S. interests in security and democracy. Contents of this report: (1) U.S. Policy on ¿One China¿: Has U.S. Policy Changed?; Overview of Policy Issues; (2) Highlights of Key Statements by Washington, Beijing, and Taipei: Statements During the Admin. of Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama. A print on demand report.
This book traces the development of Taiwan’s relations with its diplomatic partners and its policy towards the political opponents of its political opponent - mainland China. Paying particular attention to the powers that could exercise great influence in the future of East Asia, China-Taiwan Relations in a Global Context examines the main diplomatic strategies of Taiwan and its counterparts and the major problems for Taiwanese foreign relations. To date there is very little scholarship which examines the ‘Taiwan Issue’ outside of the triangular Beijing-Washington-Taipei framework, this book does exactly that. The contributors examine the development of Taiwan’s relationship with less prominent countries and governments, and attempt to ascertain how such examinations could give rise to new variables that help explain the strategy and purpose of Taiwan’s foreign policy, as well as the reaction and response of mainland China. This book provides readers with vital information about Taiwan’s foreign policymaking and introduces rarely told stories about Taiwan’s foreign relations. The research demonstrates the ceaseless and unyielding diplomatic efforts of the Taiwanese for survival in a shrunken international space and renders for readers a better understanding of the complexity of Taiwan’s relations with the rest of the world. This book is essential reading for anyone interested in Taiwan studies, Chinese politics, Cross-Strait relations and Asian foreign policy.
Coincided with China’s economic reform and her rapid ascendance to a great power status, the relations between Taiwan and Chinese mainland since 1979 have also seen some encouraging development. However, the rapprochement is nothing but a smooth ride. Taiwan Strait has always been full of tensions and hostility since the communist took over the mainland over sixty years ago.The periodical tensions in the cross-Strait relations have from time to time threatened to derail the peace talks between the two sides, and poised to jeopardize the region’s peace and stability. This book studies the past, present and future relations across the Taiwan Strait and examines many important questions such as internal and external factors contributing to the Taiwan’s shift in her mainland policy, impacts of Taiwan democratization on the cross-Strait relations, the development of Taiwanese identity and rise of Taiwanese nationalism, the possibility of expanding Taiwan’s international space under the shadow of China, the prospect of reunification between Taiwan and China, and the roles of the third parties, such as U.S., NGOs and Taiwan businessmen, in the changing relationship between the two sides. Taiwan and the Rise of China will certainly help readers, especially those who lack of historical perspective of the political division of the two political adversaries, to grasp the complexity and nature of the cross-Strait relations and faster a real understanding of the significance of this relationship to peace in the region as well as the world in the 21st century.
The existence of two Chinese states—one controlling mainland China, the other controlling the island of Taiwan—is often understood as a seemingly inevitable outcome of the Chinese civil war. Defeated by Mao Zedong, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists fled to Taiwan to establish a rival state, thereby creating the “Two Chinas” dilemma that vexes international diplomacy to this day. Accidental State challenges this conventional narrative to offer a new perspective on the founding of modern Taiwan. Hsiao-ting Lin marshals extensive research in recently declassified archives to show that the creation of a Taiwanese state in the early 1950s owed more to serendipity than careful geostrategic planning. It was the cumulative outcome of ad hoc half-measures and imperfect compromises, particularly when it came to the Nationalists’ often contentious relationship with the United States. Taiwan’s political status was fraught from the start. The island had been formally ceded to Japan after the First Sino-Japanese War, and during World War II the Allies promised Chiang that Taiwan would revert to Chinese rule after Japan’s defeat. But as the Chinese civil war turned against the Nationalists, U.S. policymakers reassessed the wisdom of backing Chiang. The idea of placing Taiwan under United Nations trusteeship gained traction. Cold War realities, and the fear of Taiwan falling into Communist hands, led Washington to recalibrate U.S. policy. Yet American support of a Taiwan-based Republic of China remained ambivalent, and Taiwan had to eke out a place for itself in international affairs as a de facto, if not fully sovereign, state.